Govt came under parliament’s scrutiny, while jihadist insurgency persisted in North Sinai, albeit at lower level. Amid rumours of imminent cabinet reshuffle since Jan, parliament late Jan-early Feb questioned govt ministers about implementation of govt’s program, voicing strong criticism of several ministers’ performance; head of parliament’s Local Administration Committee Ahmed Al-Sigini late Feb said some ministers should be replaced. Former presidential candidate and leader of Ghad party Ayman Nour 11 Feb launched platform of exiled opposition figures Union of Egyptian National Forces, with stated aim to oust President Sisi. Authorities 6 Feb released TV channel Al Jazeera journalist Mahmoud Hussein after more than four years of pre-trial detention; Hussein had been accused of spreading false news, joining banned group and receiving foreign funds. NGO Human Rights Watch 19 Feb condemned govt’s targeting of Egypt-based family members of critics living abroad; statement comes after authorities 13 Feb arrested two cousins of U.S.-based rights activist Mohamed Soltan in Menoufiya governorate. In North Sinai, Islamic State affiliate Sinai Province 9 Feb killed six tribal militiamen and reportedly abducted another in Maghara area in central Sinai; IED attacks 10 Feb destroyed army bulldozer in Naga Shabana village south of Rafah, and 12 Feb wounded several soldiers in Sheikh Zuweid area. Govt early Feb announced construction of 36km-long fence to protect Sharm al-Sheikh resort town in southern Sinai from North Sinai violence. Amid stalled AU-led negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Blue Nile River, Egypt 24 Feb endorsed Sudan’s proposal for quadripartite mediation by AU, EU, U.S. and UN. Egypt 8-9 Feb hosted reconciliation talks between Palestinian factions in capital Cairo (see Israel/Palestine); 9 Feb for first time in years “indefinitely” opened Rafah border crossing with Gaza Strip.

Jihadist violence left several dead in North Sinai, and govt mended ties with Qatar after years-long dispute. In North Sinai, Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province continued to target security forces. Spate of IED attacks 1, 3, 11 and 26 Jan killed at least four security forces personnel in Bir al-Abd area; 3-10 Jan left unknown number of casualties in and around Rafah city at border with Gaza strip; 21 Jan killed at least one security forces personnel in Sheikh Zuweid area. Suspected jihadists 2 Jan reportedly kidnapped nine civilians near Bir al-Abd town; 17 Jan detonated explosive at gas pipeline near Al-Arish city. Parliament’s lower house 12 Jan elected former head of Supreme Constitutional Court Hanafy Ali El-Gebali as speaker; lower house currently dominated by Mostaqbal Watan party, loyal to President Sisi, following last year’s legislative elections. Police 25 Jan arrested cartoonist Ashraf Hamdi after he posted online video commemorating 2011 uprising that overthrew former President Mubarak. In concerted move to end over-three-year-long Qatar blockade, Egypt, along with Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, 5 Jan signed reconciliation agreement with Doha, vowing to restore diplomatic, trade and travel ties; Cairo 12 Jan reopened Egyptian airspace to Qatari flights; 20 Jan exchanged official memoranda with Qatar on resuming diplomatic relations. Negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam resumed early Jan but failed to make progress. 

President Sisi’s allies won absolute majority in parliament’s lower house, and jihadist insurgency persisted in north Sinai. Following third and final round of legislative elections 7-8 Dec, Mostaqbal Watan party, loyal to Sisi, increased its share of seats to at least 316 from 53 in 596-seat chamber (Sisi still to appoint 28 deputies); Republican People’s Party, another pro-Sisi party, won 50 seats, up from 13; meanwhile opposition further marginalised as several opposition deputies lost seats. Crackdown on dissent continued unabated; NGO Amnesty International 2 Dec said authorities executed at least 57 individuals, including at least 15 sentenced to death in cases relating to political violence, in Oct-Nov alone, nearly twice as many as in 2019. Security forces 3 Dec arrested businessman Sayed Sowerky for allegedly supporting outlawed Muslim Brotherhood. In North Sinai, Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province continued to target security forces and local energy infrastructure. Spate of sniper attacks 2-9 Dec killed at least four soldiers in Bir al-Abd, Sheikh Zuweid and Rafah areas; roadside bomb 18 Dec killed five soldiers south of Sheikh Zuweid town. Suspected jihadists 10 Dec blew up gas pipeline in Sabika area; 24 Dec detonated explosive at natural gas pipeline near Al-Arish city. Counter-insurgency operations continued in Sinai and elsewhere. Army 8 Dec said ground and air operations had killed 40 suspected jihadist militants since Sept across Sinai; next day struck jihadist group near border with Libya in west, reportedly destroying 21 vehicles. Govt continued to strengthen ties with informal anti-Turkey alliance. Joint naval exercise involving Cyprus, Egypt, France, Greece and United Arab Emirates took place 30 Nov-6 Dec off coast of Alexandria city; Sisi 6 Dec met with French President Macron in Paris to discuss regional issues, bilateral relations and military cooperation. FM 30 Dec said it had summoned Ethiopia’s top diplomat in Cairo after Addis Ababa 29 Dec said Cairo uses dispute over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as “diversion from internal problems”.

President Sisi’s allies won vast majority of seats in parliament’s lower house, and security situation remained tense in Sinai peninsula. In late Oct and early Nov elections, pro-Sisi Mostaqbal Watan party won vast majority of 568 available seats in parliament’s lower house (28 more will be attributed by Sisi); turnout below 30%; run-offs to take place in late Nov and early Dec. In ongoing targeting of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) supporters, parliament’s legislative committee 1 Nov approved draft law that would dismiss any civil servants with ties to MB. In Sinai peninsula, armed forces continued to struggle to contain local jihadist insurgency, with Bir al-Abd area remaining major hotspot of violence. Explosive devices planted by Islamic State’s Sinai Province affiliate during its two-month occupation of villages west of Bir al-Abd town 4-9 Nov killed at least two soldiers and unknown number of civilians. Suspected Sinai Province militants 7 Nov kidnapped Coptic Christian in Bir al-Abd town. Suspected jihadists 13-14 Nov shot and killed two soldiers in Rafah area near border with Gaza Strip, 19 Nov struck gas pipeline near al-Arish town. New rounds of negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan failed to produce agreement on filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (see Nile Waters).

Govt faced increased international scrutiny for crackdown on dissent and jihadists continued to pose serious security threat in Sinai peninsula. Following Sept protests against corruption and govt’s illegal building demolition policy, NGO Amnesty International 2 Oct said security forces killed at least two demonstrators, and human rights lawyer Khaled Ali 12 Oct said authorities arrested around 2,000 people in relation to protests. Over 50 Democrat U.S. Congress members 19 Oct called on President Sisi to release political detainees; 200 European lawmakers 21 Oct followed suit, calling on Sisi to release human rights defenders, lawyers, political activists and other prisoners of conscience unjustly detained. NGO Human Rights Watch 22 Oct said 49 detainees including 15 political prisoners were executed 3-13 Oct, called on authorities to immediately halt carrying out death sentences; series of executions followed clashes last month inside death row ward at capital Cairo’s Scorpion prison that reportedly left four policemen and four inmates dead. In North Sinai, jihadist militants targeted soldiers, mainly through IEDs and ambushes; notably, IED 14 Oct killed soldier and wounded four others in Bir al-Abd area. On occasion of Armed Forces Day celebrations, residents of Bir al-Abd area – who were displaced in late July-early Aug when Islamic State (ISIS) Sinai Province took control of several villages – 6 Oct protested to demand right to return to their homes. In following weeks, at least 14 citizens were reportedly killed by IEDs upon returning to their villages, including six from same family 24 Oct; devices were allegedly planted by jihadists before fleeing. Govt late Sept to mid-Oct stepped up diplomatic engagement on Libyan crisis. After Hurghada city late Sept hosted military talks, which paved way for permanent ceasefire, delegations from Libya’s rival parliaments 11-13 Oct met in Cairo to discuss constitutional roadmap. Tripartite meeting on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam took place 27 Oct (see Nile Waters).

Demonstrations broke out across country calling for President Sisi to resign; security forces deployed in main cities in response. Hundreds of anti-Sisi protesters 20 Sept took to streets in capital Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Suez cities and smaller towns after Spain-based businessman Mohamed Ali (who had sparked wave of protests in Sept 2019) called for new demonstrations against political repression, corruption and economic crisis and govt started implementing policy of demolishing unregistered houses. Protesters reportedly set presidential residence in Aswan on fire and attacked several police vehicles; security forces fired tear gas and arrested dozens. After several days of lower-scale demonstrations, thousands 25 Sept took to streets notably in Cairo, Giza and Luxor cities; one protester reportedly killed in unclear circumstances in Al-Blida village, Giza governorate. In days before protests, govt deployed security forces in main cities, particularly Cairo, where they reportedly carried out random checks and inspections of passers-by. Earlier in month, around 300 protesters 7 Sept gathered outside police station in Giza governorate to protest death in custody of shopkeeper, who was reportedly detained after refusing to bribe police officer on 5 Sept. Ahead of elections for lower house of parliament due to take place by end of year, main pro-Sisi party Mostaqbal Watan 13 Sept unveiled coalition of 16 parties. In North Sinai, military forces late Aug-early Sept reportedly regained control of several villages in Bir Al-Abd area seized by Islamic State (ISIS) in July. Negotiations with Ethiopia over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam remained at a standstill (see Nile Waters). High-level Egyptian delegation 14 Sept met with eastern Libya leaders Aguila Saleh and Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi city in Libya notably to discuss resumption of oil exports; Haftar 18 Sept agreed to lift months-long oil blockade and oil sales resumed 26 Sept (see Libya).

President Sisi continued to take steps to reinforce his power while insecurity persisted in North Sinai. In first round of Senate elections 11-12 Aug, pro-Sisi party Mustaqbal Watan secured overwhelming majority of seats in newly created upper chamber of parliament; most opposition parties boycotted ballot, which saw extremely low turnout at 15%; run-off vote scheduled for Sept. Amid economic downturn caused notably by COVID-19 pandemic, govt 16 Aug announced price hikes for public transportation in capital Cairo and next day reduced size of subsidised bread loaf from 110 to 90 grams, while keeping price unchanged. In North Sinai, Islamic State (ISIS)-Sinai Province early Aug reportedly executed four civilians suspected of cooperating with army in Bir al-Abed city. Govt 30 Aug said army killed over 70 suspected jihadists in military operations in North Sinai 22 July-30 Aug; seven soldiers including three officers also killed. Egypt and Greece 6 Aug signed agreement on demarcation of their maritime border in Mediterranean Sea, creating exclusive economic zone for oil and gas drilling rights; deal reportedly came in response to similar deal between Turkey and Libyan Govt of National Accord (GNA) in 2019; GNA immediately said it will not allow any party to violate its maritime rights while Turkey said deal was “null and void” and later deployed seismic research vessel in disputed waters (see Cyprus). On-off negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on filling and operations of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam continued under African Union auspices; final agreement remains elusive as Cairo and Khartoum denounce Addis Ababa’s failure to commit to legally binding deal (see Nile Waters).

Army grappled with Islamic State in Sinai, while govt continued to threaten military intervention in Libya. In Sinai peninsula, army 21 July reportedly repelled suspected Islamic State (ISIS)-Sinai Province attack on military installation in Bir al-Abed area, leaving 18 militants and two soldiers dead, while ISIS claimed 40 soldiers killed during incident; in following days, military confronted militants who reportedly seized control of four nearby villages, killing at least one soldier and forcing residents to flee. Court of Cassation 14 July upheld life sentence for Muslim Brotherhood (MB) leader Mohamed Badie and 186 other MB members on charges of attacking Minya city police station and killing policemen in 2013. Spain-based businessman Mohamed Ali, whose online videos accusing President Sisi of misusing public funds sparked wave of protest in 2019, 9 July appeared in Madrid court on preliminary extradition hearing; Egyptian authorities late 2019 requested Ali’s extradition from Spain on tax evasion and money laundering charges. Govt took preparatory steps toward military intervention in neighbouring Libya against Turkish-backed forces loyal to UN-recognised Govt of National Accord. Army 9 July reportedly carried out major military exercise in Qabr Gabis area near Libyan border. In 13 July statement, members of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar-aligned House of Representatives called for Cairo’s military intervention in Libya, citing national security threat to both countries. In Cairo, Sisi 16 July met with Libyan tribal leaders favourable to military intervention. Parliament 20 July authorised troop deployment abroad “in defence of national security” (see Libya). African Union-facilitated negotiations among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam 3-13 July failed to secure agreement (see Nile Waters).

President Sisi 20 June threatened to intervene militarily in neighbouring Libya, while talks on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project suffered new setback. As UN-recognised Govt of National Accord (GNA)-aligned forces made gains against Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Arab Libyan Armed Forces (ALAF) in Libyan capital Tripoli, Sisi 6 June proposed roadmap for political settlement between Libya’s rival factions, including UN-supervised elections, withdrawal of foreign forces and adherence to arms embargoes. Turkey and GNA immediately rejected initiative as pro-Haftar and signalled that they would continue offensive into central and eastern Libya. In televised speech 20 June, Sisi warned that advances by Turkey-backed GNA-aligned forces on strategic city of Sirte were “red line” and would prompt Egypt to intervene militarily in Libya, citing threat to national security. Technical negotiations on GERD between Cairo, Addis Ababa and Khartoum resumed 9 June but broke down 17 June due to disagreements over drought mitigation, arbitration mechanism and legal status of final agreement (see Nile Waters). International Monetary Fund 5 June announced one-year $5.2bn financial package to support Egyptian economy on top of already-agreed $2.8bn fund. Court in capital Cairo 21 June sentenced 13 to life imprisonment and three others to 15 years in prison for alleged membership with Syrian jihadist group Al-Nusra Front.

With highest number of COVID-19 cases in Africa and Middle East, govt remained occupied with concerns over public health and economic recession, while Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project remained foreign policy priority. PM Mostafa Madbouli 13 May announced preparation of austerity budget for 2021 as govt signalled growing gap in national budget and current account deficits; International Monetary Fund 11 May granted Egypt $2.77bn loan, while govt estimated total $9bn needed from international financial institutions to meet shortfall. Following Cairo and Khartoum’s early May rejection of Ethiopian PM Ahmed’s proposed interim agreement on Ethiopian dam, and anticipating test phase beginning July 2020, Egyptian FM Shoukry 6 May sent letter to refer dispute to UN Security Council; Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan 21 May agreed to resume stalled talks (see Nile Waters entry). Islamic State (ISIS)-Sinai Province 1 May claimed responsibility for 30 April attack on military vehicle near Bir al-Abd in northern Sinai that killed ten soldiers; ministry of interior announced security forces 3 May killed eighteen alleged ISIS members, and 23 May killed 21 alleged ISIS members in clashes near Bir al-Abd.