With highest number of COVID-19 cases in Africa and Middle East, govt remained occupied with concerns over public health and economic recession, while Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project remained foreign policy priority. PM Mostafa Madbouli 13 May announced preparation of austerity budget for 2021 as govt signalled growing gap in national budget and current account deficits; International Monetary Fund 11 May granted Egypt $2.77bn loan, while govt estimated total $9bn needed from international financial institutions to meet shortfall. Following Cairo and Khartoum’s early May rejection of Ethiopian PM Ahmed’s proposed interim agreement on Ethiopian dam, and anticipating test phase beginning July 2020, Egyptian FM Shoukry 6 May sent letter to refer dispute to UN Security Council; Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan 21 May agreed to resume stalled talks (see Nile Waters entry). Islamic State (ISIS)-Sinai Province 1 May claimed responsibility for 30 April attack on military vehicle near Bir al-Abd in northern Sinai that killed ten soldiers; ministry of interior announced security forces 3 May killed eighteen alleged ISIS members, and 23 May killed 21 alleged ISIS members in clashes near Bir al-Abd.

Attempts to mediate talks over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam stalled, crackdown on dissent continued, and fears of jihadist attacks on Coptic community resurfaced. Security forces 14 April killed seven suspected jihadist militants in al-Amirya district in capital Cairo, citing alleged plot to attack Coptic communities over Easter. Cairo judicial authorities 18 April charged former legislator Zyad Elelaimy and twelve others for collaborating with outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, spreading false news and undermining trust in state institutions. Govt 12 April arrested chairman of Daily News Egypt Mostafa Sakr after newspaper published story about central bank manipulation of exchange rate. Due to economic impact of COVID-19, finance minister 9 April said country had lost total $8.5bn in foreign investment over previous three months. President al-Sisi 16 April pardoned hundreds of detainees; he made no link to concerns about COVID-19 in prisons. In ongoing dispute over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Sudanese water minister Yasser Abbas 7 April said his govt would not mediate talks between Egypt and Ethiopia; Egypt intelligence head Abbas Kamel and water minister Mohammed Abdul Motti 9 April met Sudan’s Sovereign Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Khartoum.

Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia rose after Ethiopia end-Feb refused to sign U.S.-drafted agreement on filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Blue Nile. Arab League 5 March supported Egypt’s position, while Sudan requested not to feature on list of countries in favour, saying Egypt had not consulted it. Egyptian FM Shoukry early March toured Arab capitals to put pressure on Addis Ababa not to take unilateral steps to fill reservoir behind dam. Shoukry 12 March visited Brussels to ask EU to mediate between Egypt and Ethiopia. Interior ministry 16 March said security forces in Abu Shilla city, North Sinai killed six alleged militants. Due to possible spread of COVID-19 in prison facilities, Supreme State Security Prosecution 21 March released fifteen opposition activists held on remand, including Hassan Nafaa arrested Sept 2019, Hazem Abdel Azim and Shadi Ghazali Harb, both arrested May 2018.

Violence continued in Sinai Peninsula and govt pursued talks with Ethiopia and Sudan over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on River Nile. In Sinai Peninsula, local media 3 Feb reported that unidentified attackers blew up section of gas pipeline near el-Arish city, without impacting gas imports from Israel. Govt 17 Feb announced it had started building latest in series of new military bases, this one in Abu Sultan to protect Suez Canal. Egyptian officials 10 Feb resumed mediation between Israel and Hamas to avoid military escalation. Local media mid-Feb reported that military had begun building wall along parts of border with Gaza considered vulnerable to incursions and tunnels. National security agency 7 Feb arrested Patrick Zaky, activist and student at University of Bologna in Italy, in Mansoura, north of Cairo; Italian President of European Parliament David Sassoli 12 Feb called for Zaky’s immediate release. Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan 14 Feb announced broad agreement on filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on River Nile; U.S. and World Bank worked on final draft agreement on technical issues ahead of 27-28 Feb ministerial meeting in Washington DC which Ethiopia boycotted. Foreign affairs and water resources ministries 29 Feb criticised Ethiopia’s decision. Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak 25 Feb died in hospital.

Tensions with Turkey grew, and President Sisi continued to tighten his grip on media, while Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan made progress in talks to resolve dispute over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on River Nile opening opportunity to strike comprehensive deal in Feb. Govt 2 Jan condemned Turkey’s decision to send troops and weapons to support Libyan militias loyal to UN-backed Govt of National Accord against Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s forces backed by Cairo, and National Security Council convened same day in Cairo to identify measures to address potential threat to national security. FMs of Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and France met in Cairo 8 Jan and jointly condemned Turkey’s move. Govt 10 Jan said armed forces were conducting military exercises in country’s strategic areas and along coasts of Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea to show “strength and readiness of the armed forces to protect the capabilities and wealth of the country”. Police 14 Jan raided Cairo office of Turkish state-owned Anadolu news agency and detained      four      staff, including Turkish national, on grounds of having links to banned Muslim Brotherhood group; authorities released them 16-19 Jan. Govt 8 Jan approved new media policies after Sisi late Dec reinstated information ministry abolished in 2014 and said authorities had to block websites to protect country. In Washington DC 13-15 Jan, representatives of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan signed six-point preliminary agreement on filling of reservoir and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on River Nile; met again in Washington DC 28-29 Jan in attempt to finalise agreement and resolve dispute, but extended talks due to deadlock over agreement details; 31 Jan said in joint statement they had reached agreement and would sign deal by end of Feb. During meeting with Sisi 19 Jan, U.S. Sec State Pompeo expressed outrage at death of U.S. citizen Moustafa Kassem in prison 13 Jan. Court in Cairo 27 Jan sentenced 37 people to jail terms, including eight to life in prison, for joining Islamic State (ISIS)-Sinai Province.

Following late Sept anti-govt protests, President Sisi reshuffled security apparatus in late Nov and early Dec and jihadist attacks and counter-terrorism operations continued in Sinai. Sisi reportedly appointed commander of Republican Guard Gen. Ahmed Ali as head of presidency office, former army Chief of Staff Gen. Mahmoud Higazi to key position within presidency office, and former military official Mostafa Shawkat as head of Republican Guard. In Sinai, Islamic State (ISIS)-Sinai Province militants 8 Dec launched simultaneous attacks on military camp at Al-Ahrash near Rafah and military vehicle in Sheikh Zuweid, killing four soldiers. Army raid 5 Dec killed three suspected jihadists in North Sinai. Talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over Ethiopia’s construction of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on River Nile continued in U.S. in bid to resolve dispute by 15 Jan. After FMs met in Washington 9 Dec, Egyptian officials said negotiations were moving forward. Further talks took place in Sudanese capital Khartoum 21-22 Dec. Sudan 22 Dec said countries had come closer to agreeing on operation of dam and filling of reservoir. President Sisi showed growing concern over Turkey’s expanding ties with Libya’s UN-backed govt (GNA); govt mid-Dec warned against attempts “to control” neighbouring Libya and protested to UN Security Council against agreements signed in Nov between Turkey and GNA on maritime rights in Mediterranean Sea and military cooperation.

Following late Sept anti-regime protests, govt continued to take measures to ease economic pressure on citizens, jihadist insurgency continued in Sinai, and govt committed to further talks with Ethiopia and Sudan over Nile waters. Govt 16 Nov announced further cuts to prices of certain foods effective from 1 Dec. Cabinet 13 Nov approved amnesty for unspecified number of prisoners effective 25 Jan. Police 23 Nov arrested senior editor of independent news outlet Mada Masr in Cairo after it published report on President Sisi’s son; 24 Nov raided Mada Masr’s Cairo HQ, arrested three journalists; all four journalists reportedly released 24 Nov. Police 26 Nov arrested three more journalists in Cairo. In Sinai, jihadist attacks and counter-terrorism operations continued. Islamic State (ISIS)-Sinai Province 2 Nov pledged allegiance to new ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Quraishi. ISIS claimed roadside bomb that hit army vehicle 20 Nov in Sheikh Zuweid, one officer killed. Military 4 Nov said they had killed 83 suspected militants in north and central Sinai in Oct. Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu met Sisi in Cairo 12 Nov to discuss Egypt’s possible purchase of Russian fighter jets. U.S. 18 Nov warned govt that buying Russian fighter jets could lead to U.S. sanctions, including ban on future purchases of American weapons. After U.S. hosted talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over Ethiopia’s construction of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on River Nile, parties agreed to hold four meetings among water ministers in bid to resolve dispute by 15 Jan.

After authorities cracked down on late Sept protests against President Sisi’s rule, govt took economic measures to relieve pressure on citizens. Authorities 1 Oct said they had put nearly 1.8mn people back onto food subsidy program and 4 Oct reduced fuel prices; measures reversed key austerity policies introduced in agreement with International Monetary Fund. Security forces 12 Oct arrested prominent pro-democracy activist Esraa Abdel-Fattah; prosecutor next day jailed her for fifteen days pending investigation on charges of collusion with terrorist organisation and spreading false news; she said she was tortured by police. Insecurity persisted in North Sinai. Bomb hit truck in Bir al-Abd 12 Oct killing at least nine civilians. Security forces 10 Oct reportedly killed militant who tried to blow himself up near al-Arish city. Shells hit two houses in Sheikh Zuweid 19 Oct, killing at least four civilians; media said army carried out strikes. Suspected Islamic State (ISIS) combatants 28 Oct killed policeman in Sheikh Zuweid. Police 29 Oct killed thirteen suspected militants in al-Arish city. Sisi 26 Oct extended nationwide state of emergency by three months. Tensions rose between Egypt and Ethiopia over latter’s construction of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Nile River; Egypt fears project will curtail its share of river water. After tripartite talks with Ethiopia and Sudan 4-5 Oct, Egyptian officials 5 Oct said negotiations had reached “deadlock” and 20 Oct said Ethiopia should agree to involvement of external mediator. Govt 22 Oct said it had accepted U.S. invitation to Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to meet in Washington. Sisi met Ethiopian PM Abiy in Russia during Africa-Russia summit 23-24 Oct and agreed to resume talks.

Thousands demonstrated across country calling for President Sisi’s resignation; in response security forces deployed in main cities and arrested around 2,000. Thousands 20 Sept marched in several cities including capital Cairo, Alexandria, Damietta and Suez, chanting anti-govt slogans. Protests continued next day in Suez. Protests erupted after former businessman Mohamed Ali, who lives in Spain, posted videos online in which he accuses Sisi of mismanagement and misuse of public funds; videos went viral early Sept. In televised speech 14 Sept, Sisi denied allegations. In hours after protests, security forces carried out arrests and increased their presence in main cities, including Cairo’s Tahrir Square. Human rights group 26 Sept said police 20-25 Sept arrested about 2,000 people in relation with protests. Thousands of police deployed in Cairo and closed Tahrir Square 27 Sept to prevent new Friday protests. Court 11 Sept sentenced eleven Muslim Brotherhood leaders, including former Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie, to life in prison on charges of spying on behalf of Palestinian Islamist group Hamas. Insecurity persisted in North Sinai. Army vehicle triggered explosive device near Sheikh Zuweid 17 Sept, two soldiers reportedly killed and eight injured. Police 22 Sept raided suspected Islamist militants’ hideout west of al-Arish city and killed fifteen. Islamic State (ISIS) 27 Sept attacked military checkpoint near Bir al-Abed, seven soldiers and one civilian reportedly killed. Near Cairo, security forces 18 Sept killed nine suspected Islamist militants in raid in cities of al-Obour and 15th May. Human rights activists early Sept criticised raids as “extrajudicial killings”. Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan held new round of talks in Cairo 15-16 Sept aimed at resolving dispute over Ethiopia’s construction of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on River Nile; parties failed to make breakthrough, with Egypt fearing that project would curtail its share of Nile water. Parties agreed to reconvene 4-5 Oct. At UN 24 Sept, Sisi called for international intervention in negotiations.

Security forces responded to deadly car bombing in Cairo by stepping up raids on suspected Islamist militants, and Islamic State (ISIS) militants maintained insurgency in North Sinai. In Cairo, car bombing killed 22 people outside National Cancer Institute 5 Aug; govt blamed Hasm, organisation allegedly linked to Muslim Brotherhood, but Hasm denied responsibility. Security forces 8 Aug carried out raids on suspected terrorist hideouts in town of Atsa, Fayoum province, about 100km south west of Cairo, and East Shorouk, about 5okm north east of Cairo, killing seventeen alleged militants. In North Sinai, ISIS militants 4 Aug kidnapped young man in Bir al-Abd and 6 Aug published video which appeared to show execution of two civilians in Rafah, whom they accused of being agents for military.