CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

President Sisi continued to shuffle members of his inner circle as authorities continued to crack down on dissent. Sisi 1 Sept removed head of Administrative Control Authority (ACA) Major General Mohamed Irfan (one of his closest allies, Irfan is expected to be promoted) and reportedly dismissed head of General Intelligence Service (GIS) Major General Abbas Kamel. Sisi 20 Sept replaced Director of Military Intelligence (MI) Mohammed Shehat with former head of Second Field Army Major General Kahled Megawer. Govt 3 Sept took off air popular TV host with ties to GIS Lamees el-Hadidy after she reportedly upset Sisi with comments made during March election. Ahmed Bahgat 11 Sept said he was being forced to sell his Dream TV network to state-owned entities and move popular presenter to a GIS-owned network. Muslim Brotherhood affiliated, Istanbul-based, Mekemeen TV channel 15 Sept reported 27 army personnel had been arrested 13 Sept; many reportedly come from Second Field Army, previously led by two senior officers who have had disagreements with Sisi since 2013. Authorities 15 Sept arrested Alaa and Gamal Mubarak, sons of former President Mubarak, on revived 2011 charges of stock market fraud. Authorities 18 Sept froze funds of four prominent activists, including former diplomat Maasoum Marzouk, following their arrest in Aug on suspicion of belonging to terrorist organisation. Sisi 2 Sept ratified July law allowing govt to monitor social media accounts. Backpack exploded in alleged botched attack on U.S. embassy in Cairo 4 Sept, authorities same day arrested one suspect. In Sinai peninsula, security forces 10 Sept reportedly killed eleven suspected jihadists. Military chiefs from Egypt, Jordan and U.S. 12 Sept joined 15th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Supreme Military Committee meeting in Kuwait attended by all GCC members including Qatar; first meeting since Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain cut ties with Qatar in June 2017.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Authorities continued crackdown on dissent. Security forces 23 Aug arrested former diplomat Maasoum Marzouk in Cairo on charges including joining terrorist group after he called 5 Aug for referendum on govt and threatened to organise protest in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. Several opposition activists reportedly arrested same day on same charges. Italian police 1 Aug arrested opposition leader close to Muslim Brotherhood Mohamed Mahsoub at Egypt’s request; next day released him and refused Egypt’s request for extradition. Security situation in Sinai improved slightly. Govt 12 Aug said police killed twelve alleged Islamic State (ISIS) Sinai Province (SP) militants in shootout in Arish city in north Sinai. Car bomb 19 Aug killed military officer south of Arish city. SP militants 25 Aug attacked police checkpoint on Arish-Qantara road, four police and four militants reportedly killed. Insecurity persisted in Cairo area. Police 11 Aug prevented suicide bomber entering Coptic Church in north Cairo suburb Shubra al-Kheima, he detonated his explosive vest outside church killing only himself; police next day said they had arrested six people in connection with case. Police 13 Aug said they had killed six suspected Islamist militants in south-western suburb of Cairo Sixth of October City. ISIS 26 Aug claimed attack on checkpoint west of Arish city previous day, at least four security force personnel and four militants reportedly killed. President Sisi 18 Aug signed law, approved by parliament in May, to tighten govt’s control over internet usage. Egypt and UN Special Coordinator for Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov continued efforts to broker truce between Israel and Hamas (see Israel-Palestine).

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

President Sisi continued reshuffle of military leadership: 2 July appointed former director of Armed Forces Morale Affairs Department, Major-General Mohsen Mahmoud Abdel Nabi, head of presidential office, replacing Major-General Abbas Kamel, who became head of General Intelligence Service late June. Parliament 3 July approved draft law giving Sisi power to grant military officers lifelong immunity for any alleged crimes committed since 2013 when then army chief Sisi led military in coup deposing former President Morsi. Former military chief of staff Sami Anan, imprisoned since Jan after he tried to run for presidency, taken into intensive care 14 July. Court 28 July sentenced 75 people to death for taking part in 2013 demonstration in support of deposed President Mohamed Morsi, referred cases to country’s Grand Mufti for final decision. Islamic State (ISIS)-related violence continued in Sinai. Two ISIS Sinai Province (SP) commanders early July reportedly surrendered to security forces in Rafah city, North Sinai. Military 3 July said three suspected SP militants and two civilians had been killed in North Sinai in preceding days. Security forces 11 July killed eleven suspected SP militants during raid on hideout in Arish city, North Sinai. SP 22 July said one of its commanders, Abu Jaafar al-Maqdesi, had been killed earlier in July. Security forces 24 July killed thirteen SP militants in shootout in Arish city. As fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza escalated, Egypt tried in vain to broker truce and closed Rafah border crossing citing “technical fault” 18-19 July. Parliament 16 July passed law that will allow authorities to block social media accounts and penalise journalists for publishing so-called fake news.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

President Sisi, sworn in for second term 2 June, reshuffled cabinet: 7 June appointed former Housing Minister Mustafa Madbouly PM and 14 June appointed twelve new ministers – including defence, interior and finance – and sixteen new deputy ministers. Sisi continued purge of senior and mid-level army officers: Major General Ahmed Wasfi and Lieutenant General Osama Askar removed from posts and secretly threatened with corruption charges. Govt 13 June said military would begin to withdraw about 70% of forces from North Sinai following claimed success of counter-terrorism operation launched in Feb. Security forces 4 June killed fifteen suspected members of Islamic State (ISIS) Sinai Province near Arish, North Sinai. Army 21 June said security forces had killed 32 suspected ISIS members in North and Central Sinai in preceding days. Govt mid-June announced hikes in prices of drinking water, fuel and electricity to reduce public debt.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Govt’s 10 May announcement of metro fare hikes by up to 300% triggered days of protests across Cairo that closed several metro stations; security forces 12 May arrested ten demonstrators. Govt stepped up crackdown on critics as President Sisi prepared to be sworn in for second four-year term early June: security forces 5 May arrested blogger Sherif Gaber; 6 May arrested satirist Shady Hussein Abu Zaid; 11 May detained director of Egyptian Commission for Rights and Freedoms Mohamed Lotfy with his wife and son, Lofty and son released but his wife kept in custody with detention renewed 28 May for fifteen days; 15 May arrested leading 2011 activist Shady Ghazaly Harb; 23 May arrested journalist Wael Abbas; 26 May arrested Sisi’s former supporter turned critic, politician Hazem Abdel-Azim; Cairo military court 22 May sentenced journalist Ismail Alexandrani to ten years in prison. State toughened action against Muslim Brotherhood (MB): prosecutor-general 13 May referred 278 defendants to military court on charges of joining banned MB-linked groups Hassm and Liwaa al-Thawra. In operation launched in Sinai in Feb, military 17 May said in past few days it had killed nineteen suspected members of Islamic State (ISIS) Sinai Province and arrested twenty; two soldiers and eight suspected militants killed 29 May. Tripartite negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over Ethiopia’s construction of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Nile River made no progress 5 May but in Addis Ababa 15 May parties agreed to go ahead with long-delayed joint study of dam.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Army 25 April said counter-terrorism operations in North Sinai in preceding week had killed 30 suspected Islamic State (ISIS) Sinai Province militants, including leader Nasser Abu Zaqoul, three police officers also killed. Fourteen ISIS militants 14 April attacked military base in central Sinai, killing eight soldiers. Govt 14 April extended state of emergency for three months. Cairo military court 10 April sentenced 36 people to death for involvement in attacks against Coptic churches in Cairo, Tanta and Alexandria in 2016-2017. Military court 24 April sentenced former anti-corruption chief Hisham Geneina to five years in prison on charges of spreading false news harmful to military, Geneina arrested 13 Feb after opposition presidential candidate Lt Gen Sami Anan chose him to run for VP. President Sisi 24 April signed law creating Supreme Council to Combat Terrorism and Extremism.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Presidential election held 26-28 March, preliminary results suggested President Sisi would be re-elected with over 90% of votes; widespread allegations of vote-buying and state campaigning for Sisi. Military trial of former Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sami Anan started 22 March; charges include announcing presidential candidacy without required permissions from military. Major military operation against Islamic State (ISIS) in Sinai launched early Feb continued: military 19 March said four soldiers and over 30 Islamist militants killed in intense fighting 11-18 March; defence ministry 19 March said up to twenty troops killed in Sinai operation since early Feb; military 1 April said two soldiers and six Islamist militants killed in preceding week. Bombing in Alexandria in north west killed two police 24 March; govt said attack targeted city’s security chief, police said Hassm movement, reportedly Muslim Brotherhood offshoot, responsible and 25 March killed six Hassm militants. Days before Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Cairo, Supreme Constitutional Court 3 March ruled transfer of two Red Sea islands, Tiran and Sanafir, to Saudi Arabia legal.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Military 9 Feb launched major counter-terrorism operation in Sinai, 24 Feb said 60,000 soldiers involved in operation, 27 Feb said it had killed 82 Islamist militants and arrested 2,900 while ten soldiers had been killed. Islamic State (ISIS) 12 Feb released video calling on citizens not to vote in presidential election, first round planned for 24-27 March, threatening attacks on polling stations. In run-up to election, govt continued crackdown on opposition. After arresting opposition candidate Lt Gen Sami Anan in Jan, security officials 7 Feb temporarily detained and interrogated his son and 13 Feb arrested former head of govt audit agency Hisham Geneina, whom Anan had chosen to run for VP. Judiciary 6 Feb announced investigation into several opposition leaders who had called for boycott: Strong Egypt Party’s deputy Mohammed el-Qassas arrested 9 Feb; Strong Egypt Party head, former Muslim Brotherhood member and 2012 presidential candidate, Abdelmoneim Aboul Fotouh, arrested 14 Feb for allegedly plotting to overthrow regime; Cairo Criminal Court added him to terror list 20 Feb. Only contender to President Sisi remained his ally Moussa Mohamed Moussa, head of New Tomorrow Party.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Islamic State (ISIS) continued violence against Christians and govt maintained repression in run-up to presidential election, first round planned for 24-27 March. ISIS 3 Jan released video of execution of alleged Hamas collaborator. ISIS claimed responsibility for attack in Helwan district, southern Cairo 9 Jan: gunman killed two Christian shopkeepers then stormed church killing seven more Christians, attacker arrested. Authorities 13 Jan extended nationwide state of emergency for three months, under which curfew to be imposed in North Sinai, around Arish and Rafah on border with Gaza. Former PM and 2012 presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq, reportedly detained in Dec, returned home 3 Jan and withdrew candidacy from presidential election 7 Jan. Former MP Mohamed Anwar Sadat 15 Jan said he would not run for presidency citing govt’s lack of transparency and stifling of media. Lt Gen Sami Anan, former armed forces chief of staff, 20 Jan announced he would run, detained 23 Jan and barred from running on grounds that he remained in active military service; unidentified assailants attacked leading member of Anan’s campaign 27 Jan. President Sisi announced his candidacy 20 Jan, after 508 of 596 MPs endorsed it. Rights lawyer Khaled Ali 24 Jan said he would not run citing unfair contest. Ghad party leader Mousa Mostafa Mousa 29 Jan said he would run as sole challenger. Following reports that Egypt had deployed troops to Sawa military base in western Eritrea near border with Sudan 4 Jan (which Eritrean President Afwerki denied 15 Jan), Sudan same day recalled its ambassador to Egypt, and early Jan deployed troops to Kassala region in east near border with Eritrea. Sisi met Ethiopian PM Desalegn in Cairo 18 Jan on dispute over construction of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Egypt sees as threat to its water supply; talks ended in stalemate as Ethiopia rejected Egyptian proposal that World Bank mediate. On sidelines of African Union summit, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan 29 Jan set one-month deadline to reach agreement on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Following terror attack on Bir al-Abed mosque in North Sinai 23 Nov, military stepped up operations against jihadists and Islamic State (ISIS) and other militants launched multiple attacks on military and civilian targets. ISIS claimed missile attack on military airbase near Arish, North Sinai 19 Dec targeting interior and defence ministers, one military officer killed. Next day security forces conducted raids to arrest militants near Arish, five suspected militants and one army officer killed. ISIS claimed 28 Dec attack on bank in Arish, North Sinai that killed two people. Army vehicle triggered bomb during raid on militant position in North Sinai 28 Dec, one officer and five soldiers killed. In attacks claimed by ISIS on Coptic Orthodox church and Christian-owned shop near Cairo, gunman 29 Dec killed eleven people. Security forces 18 Dec killed five suspected militants and arrested ten others in raids in Alexandria province in north west and Qalyubiya province north of Cairo. Security forces 24 Dec killed nine suspected militants in raid in Sharqiya province in Nile Delta. Govt 30 Dec said security forces killed three suspected militants belonging to Hassm, reportedly Muslim Brotherhood offshoot, during raid in Giza. After former PM and 2012 presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq late Nov said he intended to run in May 2018 presidential elections but was prevented from returning from UAE, UAE deported him 2 Dec. On arrival in Cairo, military seized him and detained him in hotel incommunicado. Colonel Ahmed Konsowa sentenced to six years in prison 19 Dec after announcing his intention to run in 2018 presidential election while on active duty. Former President Morsi and nineteen others sentenced 30 Dec to three years in prison for insulting judiciary.

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