CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Libya

UN-backed PM Serraj 30 March arrived by sea in Tripoli after U.S. and several European countries 13 March recognised new Govt of National Accord (GNA) as only legitimate govt without waiting for formal vote of endorsement of Tobruk- based House of Representatives (HoR) and without official backing of country’s military factions. Tripoli-based PM Khalifa Ghweil 15 March said he would consider GNA operating in capital illegal, 27 March closed city’s airport, allegedly to prevent arrival of GNA members, while Tobruk-based govt 18 March warned that moves to impose GNA risk deepening crisis. Commanders of armed brigades in Tripoli 23 March reject- ed GNA and denounced efforts to bring it to capital. Pro- and anti-GNA militias clashed in Tripoli 28 March. UN envoy Martin Kobler 30 March urged “peaceful and orderly handover of power”. Foreign backers of UN process giving contradictory signals: Egyptian President Sisi 17 March urged Western countries to support eastern- based Libyan National Army (LNA) of anti-GNA General Haftar, which in late Feb made advances in Benghazi against forces allied to Benghazi Shura Council coalition of Islamist militias; Special Forces from several Western and regional powers allegedly provided support to LNA in Benghazi. New Islamic State (IS) leader in Libya Abdul Qadr al-Najdi 10 March said group gaining strength. Suspected IS militants 14 March attacked water plant 80km from major Sarir oil field. Kobler 17 March said situation “going from bad to worse”, warned of IS expansion.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Efforts to form Govt of National Accord (GNA) remain unsuccessful. Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) 23 Feb postponed by one week vote on slimmed-down cabinet of thirteen ministers plus five ministers of state, presented by Presidency Council 15 Feb after HoR 25 Jan rejected first cabinet line-up. PM-designate Serraj’s renewed nomination for defence minister of Benghazi army commander Mahdi al-Barghathi triggered opposition from supporters in HoR of eastern strongman General Haftar; inclusion of two former senior officials from Qadhafi regime provoked resentment among constituencies in western Libya initially supportive of UN-led mediation, now calling for removal of Serraj and reshuffling of presidential council. Illegal war economy becoming further entrenched amid plummeting state reserves, weakening Libyan dinar black market exchange rate and rising living costs; protesters in Shahat 7 Feb denounced deteriorating living conditions including blackouts, shortages of cash, bread, and fuel; UN humanitarian coordinator 22 Feb said country faces severe medicine shortages. Erratic violence continued. Eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA) 23 Feb said it had taken control of Benghazi’s Boatni and Laithi districts and claimed advances in several other areas, despite two LNA MIGs crashing/being shot down over Derna and Benghazi early Feb. U.S. airstrike against suspected Islamic State (IS) training camp near Sabratha 19 Feb killed around 40 people. Clashes between IS affiliates and fighters loyal to Tripoli-based govt from Sabratha and nearby cities left dozens dead over following days, including some eleven security officers beheaded by IS supporters in Sabratha police station. UN human rights chief late Feb reported all sides committing human rights abuses possibly amounting to war crimes.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Setback for implementation of 17 Dec Libya Political Agreement (LPA) and formation of Govt of National Accord (GNA) after some 104 members of Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) 25 Jan rejected cabinet line-up proposed by Presidency Council 18 Jan, asked PM-designate Serraj to resubmit proposal with fewer ministers. Two of nine Presidency Council members opposing new govt suspended their participation from body, then returned after HoR decision. Disagreements persist over HoR’s insistence on removal of Article 8 of LPA regarding transfer of military power to Presidency Council if no agreement reached on Supreme Commander of Armed Forces within twenty days of ratification; Tripoli-based General National Congress 27 Jan said it opposed any change to LPA. Nomination for defence minister of Mahdi al-Barghathi, critic of commander of eastern-based Libyan National Army General Haftar, accelerated splits within army. Islamic State (IS) affiliates increased raids on oil infrastructure, including 4-6 Jan attack on Sidra terminal in Sirte basin, resulting in eleven guards and dozens of militants reported killed; and attacks on nearby Ras Lanuf oil port 7 and 21 Jan. Militants 8-9 Jan attacked power plant in Benghazi. At least 50 killed by truck bomb targeting police academy in Zliten 7 Jan; IS claimed responsibility. IS affiliates consolidated authority in Ben Jawwad town west of Sidra terminal. Deadly fighting reignited between Tebu and Tuareg armed groups in Obari 10 Jan despite local peace deal.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Representatives of rival parliaments House of Representatives (HoR) and General National Congress  (GNC) 17 Dec signed UN-brokered agreement. Agreement, endorsed by UNSC 23 Dec, establishes a new govt of national unity headed by PM Faez Serraj; lawmakers who support agreement to remain in office under new power-sharing framework. Uncertainties remain over level of support for agreement: HoR and GNC parliament chiefs 15 Dec met and rejected agreement, devising separate peace plan; GNC president 16 Dec said delegates intending to sign UN deal lacked legitimacy. Tripoli remained tense: fighting erupted in Tajoura suburb and near airport road; clashes in Ajdabiya increased between forces loyal to Libyan National Army, which opposes UN-brokered agreement, and local groups who support new govt. UN 1 Dec warned of increasing Islamic State (IS) presence in Libya; IS 14 Dec killed Palestinian man in Sirte for alleged spying. Western govts urged Libyan factions to authorise airstrikes against IS in Libya but country’s envoy to UN Ibrahim Dabbashi 23 Dec said Libya does not plan to request Western airstrikes any time soon.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Political dialogue aimed at ending rivalry between two parliaments remained deeply troubled. New UN SRSG Martin Kobler 17 Nov replaced Bernardino León, assumed responsibility for political dialogue process. Ongoing disagreement over which draft agreement should be approved: July draft that favours the internationally recognised Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) or latest Oct draft incorporating some Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) objections to July draft. HoR and GNC presidents refused to allow formal vote on Oct draft; anti-deal constituencies on both sides claim majority of each parliament opposes agreement, pro-deal factions make opposite claim. Kobler 17 Nov stated “small number of outstanding issues” remained but process continues to be marred by insecurity and spoilers. Fighting in Benghazi and Derna continued; at least sixteen killed in clashes between forces allied to HoR and Islamic State (IS) fighters in Benghazi 11 Nov; IS consolidated control in Sirte as foreign fighters from Syria and Iraq increased group’s ranks. Car bomb 24 Nov killed at least five guards and injured sixteen others at checkpoint east of Tripoli. UN report 16 Nov documented indiscriminate shelling, executions, torture, property destruction, and abduction of civilians by all parties 1 Jan-31 Oct. Tebus and Tuaregs in south signed peace agreement brokered by Qatar 23 Nov, but fighting reportedly resumed soon thereafter.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

N SRSG León 8 Oct announced proposal for Government of National Accord (GNA). Western govts declared support for proposed line-up, urged lawmakers from Libya’s two rival parliaments – internationally recognised House of Representatives (HoR) in Tobruk and rival General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli – to endorse agreement. HoR, which early Oct voted to extend mandate beyond 20 Oct expiration, rejected agreement; GNC unlikely to endorse. León’s last-minute amendments to draft agreement and decision to announce suggested line-up of GNA’s cabinet and two other institutions triggered negative reactions within Libya, even among previously supportive factions. León 21 Oct said talks to continue. At least twelve killed, nine wounded after shells hit rally in Benghazi protesting proposed agreement; perpetrators still unclear as residents remain divided between those who accuse army and others who blame Islamist factions. Attacks by Islamic State (IS) affiliates and military operations against them continued including strikes on areas of Sirte controlled by IS militants, attack by IS on forces guarding Es Sider oil port 1 Oct. Helicopter transporting military commanders of Tripoli-aligned security forces gunned down 27 Oct in Maya, west of Tripoli, killing nineteen; east-based military coalition (Libyan National Army, LNA) took responsibility for attack (although others disputed claim), sparking renewed tensions between pro-Libya Dawn coalition and local forces allied to LNA.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

UN-led attempts to reach political agreement and consensus on Govt of National Accord continued to falter. 20 Sept deadline set by UN Special Envoy Bernardino LeĂłn missed as delegations representing Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) and Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) continued to disagree on proposed text. GNC continue to insist on vacation of top military post, held by controversial Tobruk-backed General Haftar, if future PM and his two deputies fail to reach agreement on post within fourteen days of signing agreement; also want text to explicitly state all current GNC members will be included in future State Council. LeĂłn included requests in new draft: HoR 15 Sept refused to accept changes, some 50 members called for withdrawal from talks; GNC 17 Sept reiterated refusal to support deal without changes. Various local constituencies lobbied for alternative plans to overcome political impasse. Meanwhile, violence continued including heavy clashes in Benghazi late Sept pitting forces loyal to HoR against fighters allied to Tripoli government and Islamist groups (including affiliates of Islamic State, IS). Intra-tribal clashes killed dozens in Kufra and Sebha early Sept. IS-affiliates attacked prison near Tripoli airport 18 Sept.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Residents of Sirte mid-Aug clashed with Islamic State (IS) fighters in city; at least twenty reportedly killed, though some claim as many as 100. Both Tobruk and Tripoli-based govts denounced IS and pledged help but neither sent ground forces. Almost no military factions loyal to Tripoli General National Congress (GNC) responded to GNC president’s 13 Aug call to rally in Sirte; Misratan brigades stationed near Sirte refused to deploy in absence of other groups from western Libya. Forces loyal to Tobruk-allied General Haftar’s Libyan National Army conducted airstrikes in the Sirte area but failed to hit IS targets. PM of Tobruk-based parliament Thinni 14 Aug said loyalist forces unable to take on extremist group, 18 Aug appealed to Arab League for military assistance and weaponry to fight IS. Fighting overshadowed UN peace talks held in Geneva 11-12 Aug and Skhirat (Morocco) 27-29 Aug, SRSG for Libya Bernardino León called on rival govts to unify. GNC continued to demand amendments to provisional July Skhirat Agreement; pro-Tobruk military leaders issued further threats they will oppose any deal made with Tripoli govt. Head of GNC delegation to talks resigned 25 Aug in protest at GNC president’s position opposing dialogue, delegation did not attend Skhirat talks. Pro-Tobruk military alliance further fragmented: Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) early Aug announced it does not recognise Haftar’s leadership.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

UN-led talks between rival Libyan factions resulted in preliminary political agreement signed 11 July by several participants but not Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC). Agreement envisions creation of consensus-based national unity govt in Tripoli with power over foreign and security policy and oversight of state finances and institutions; would also extend term of Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) for at least another year and establish a “State Council” absorbing GNC members. Role and powers of this Council remained unclear prompting GNC’s refusal to sign agreement. Despite partial signing of agreement, country remains profoundly unstable: fighting between rival armed groups in Benghazi continued throughout early July; clashes between groups affiliated with Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) and other Islamist groups continued in Derna. In West, IS-affiliated groups launched two successful attacks in Misrata including 6 July attack that destroyed two fighter jets in city’s military airport. Four Italian construction workers kidnapped 19 July in Zawiya, 100km west of Tripoli. In South, fighting between Tebu and Tuareg militias reignited in towns of Sebha and Ubari; tentative new ceasefire reached 25 July. Former dictator Qadhafi’s son Seif, former intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi and former PM sentenced to death by Tripoli court 28 July.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Fourth UN-proposed draft agreement to end political standoff and internal conflict unveiled early June: Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) delegation satisfied with proposal, which allows for former GNC members to remain under umbrella of proposed State Council; Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) 24 June voted to continue participation in peace talks, said would accept proposed plan subject to several amendments, including reducing powers of State Council. Some hardliners affiliated with both GNC and HoR rejected agreement. In attempt to push for deal, UK, France, U.S. and Spain supported UNSC resolution imposing sanctions on Abderrahman Swehli and Othman Mlegta, affiliated with pro-GNC and pro-HoR blocs respectively, for obstructing UN talks on forming national unity govt; resolution blocked by Russia and China. Jihadi groups affiliated with Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) expanded grip in Sirte region, but suffered setbacks in Derna region. U.S. 14 June launched airstrike in Ajdabiya, allegedly to hit wanted al-Murabitoun leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar; some twenty Ansar Sharia militants killed, Belmokhtar’s death unconfirmed.

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