CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Fighting continued as UN-led attempts to broker National Unity Govt (NUG) reached standstill amid continued disagreement between factions over proposed political framework unveiled late April by UN SRSG Bernadino León, who 28 May warned Libya on verge of economic collapse. Faction within Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) refused to comment on proposal, called for León’s dismissal as lead negotiator. Misrata-based faction called for complete overhaul of proposed framework, pushed for establishment of presidential council and unity govt and for internationally recognised House of Representatives (HoR) to expire in October. Pro-HoR politicians in East insist HoR president retain full control of armed forces, rather than PM’s Council as envisaged under León’s framework. León expected to present new proposal in June. Some UNSC member states including U.S. renewed calls for sanctions on spoilers. PM Thinni late May said he survived assassination attempt in Tobruk. Armed clashes continued. Militants aligned with Islamic State (IS, previously ISIL) claimed responsibility for string of suicide bombings in al-Qubba, Sirte and Misrata late May. EU pushed ahead with plans to launch sea and air mission against human trafficking networks in Libya: European Council 18 May approved establishment of EUNAVFOR MED, EU foreign policy chief Mogherini early-May lobbied UNSC members to support resolution to allow use of force.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Fourth round of political dialogue held mid-April in Algeria and Morocco; agreement to end current institutional crisis remains distant. UNSMIL chief Bernardino León 27 April unveiled proposed draft agreement but supporters of both Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) and Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) expressed criticism. HoR supporters do not accept proposal that HoR be reduced to purely legislative body with new unity govt taking over executive powers, including appointment of army chief of staff; also question creation of new presidential council composed of some former GNC members. Pro-GNC faction resent proposed deal’s full recognition of HoR authority and extension of its timeline. Military confrontations continued: over twenty killed in Tripoli 17-18 April in clashes between armed groups affiliated with opposing military factions Tripoli-Misratan Libyan Dawn Coalition and Tobruk-affiliated Libyan National Army (LNA). Heavy fighting resumed in Benghazi mid-month. Islamic State video 19 April showed alleged killing of some 28 Coptic Christians in Sirt and east Libya. Same day some 900 migrants died at sea leaving Libya for Europe; EU said will launch military operations against smuggling networks in Libya; both pro-GNC and pro-HoR representatives said they would not cooperate with any unilateral EU action against trafficking sites; UNSG Ban criticised EU proposal to destroy traffickers’ boats.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

UN-led political dialogue continued, with two rounds of talks in early March and third beginning 24 March; UN unveiled six-point proposal aimed at ending violence at parallel meetings of political party leaders held mid-March in Algiers. Another round of talks between municipal council leaders held 23 March in Brussels; fourth track focused on tribal leaders planned in Cairo. Despite this, no agreement reached on new National Unity Govt (NUG) to unite Tripoli and Tobruk factions: Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) continued to insist it should be sole institution to vote on NUG, position rejected by Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC). GNC leader Omar al-Hassi reportedly ousted from PM position following complaints from ministers. Tobruk authorities mid-March attempted to secure deal with UAE petroleum group authorising export of crude oil from Ras Lanuf terminal; deal, which fell through, countered previous agreements establishing Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation (NOC) as sole entity allowed to authorise oil sales. Military confrontation continued, with attacks by Misrata-Tripoli coalition on Zintan and Sidra port area, and aerial strikes by Hafter-led forces on Tripoli airport and Misrati positions in Sidra area. Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) affiliated militants early March carried out series of attacks on oil fields in Sirte basin area, late March targeted brigades from Misrata. UNSC Resolution 27 March called for immediate ceasefire, approved extension of UNSMIL mandate and reaffirmed arms embargo; second resolution urged member states to support Libyan govt in fight against IS.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

As deadly violence continued to rise, Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) withdrew from UN-sponsored talks aimed at finding solution to political crisis. Armed group pledging allegiance to Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) 15 Feb released video showing militants beheading 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians in Sirte; in response, Egyptian jets 16 Feb launched aerial attacks on IS stronghold of Derna (see Egypt), Libyan air force commander said at least 40 militants killed. Libya and Egypt 18 Feb called on UNSC to lift arms embargo. At least 45 killed in simultaneous car bomb attacks in Qubba, near Derna, 20 Feb; attacks targeted police HQ and home of HoR speaker Aguila Salah Issa and were claimed by IS. Islamist militants 4 Feb attacked Mabruk oil field killing ten. Efforts at diplomatic solution continued: warring factions 10 Feb resumed UN-sponsored talks but HoR 22 Feb voted to suspend participation in talks, citing rival assembly’s failure to condemn Qubbah bombings, said dialogue lacked vision.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

UN-convened talks held 14-15 Jan after several delays, and again 27-28 Jan; talks aimed at agreement on formation of national unity govt, ending hostilities, putting constitution back on track; representatives of internationally-recognised House of Representatives (HoR) attended but General National Congress (GNC) refused to participate. Military confrontation between forces allied to rival parliaments continued throughout month in Benghazi, west of Tripoli and around oil terminals in Gulf of Sirte. Militia loyal to former army general Khalifa Hiftar 22 Jan seized control of Central Bank’s Benghazi branch, transferred branch’s database and computer systems to al-Bayda town in east; bank’s vault so far intact. Some twenty Egyptian Christians kidnapped by Islamist militants early Jan, thirteen from Sirte. Leader of Ansar al-Sharia militant group confirmed dead 24 Jan, killed in Oct clashes. At least twelve killed, including French and U.S. citizen, in attack on hotel in Tripoli 27 Jan; social media linked to Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) claimed IS responsible for attack, but self-declared Tripoli-based govt blamed military wing of internationally-recognised Tobruk-based parliament.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Conflict between Libya’s two rival political bodies and their military allies intensified, with heavy clashes and multiple new frontlines emerging across country. Coalition of fighters from Misrata, key component of Tripoli-based Libya Dawn coalition, along with fighters from Awlad Suleiman tribe and Ansar Sharia, 13 Dec attacked forces allied with Tobruk-based parliament in eastern Sirt basin in bid to take control of Sidra and Ras Lanuf oil export terminals. Sidra's oil storage tanks caught fire following 26 Dec fighting; international help requested to extinguish fire. Tebu and Tuareg gunmen, allied with Tobruk parliament and Libya Dawn respectively, clashed repeatedly in south throughout month. Libya Dawn fought pro-Tobruk armed groups rebranded “Libyan National Army” (LNA) in west for control of Ras al-Jdeir border post with Tunisia and al-Witiya airbase. Dozens killed in fighting in west and Benghazi; at least 30 killed in oil terminal clashes. UN-sponsored political dialogue meeting scheduled 9 Dec again postponed.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Supreme Court 6 Nov stripped Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR, Libya’s internationally recognised parliament) of legal basis, plunging Libya into further political chaos; anti-HoR factions approved verdict, some continue to support former legislature General National Congress (GNC) as interim legal authority, others call for early elections. U.S., Canada and six EU states issued statement but declined to take position; Egypt stated continued support for HoR; Turkey called for early elections. Clashes between armed factions continued in main cities: ongoing clashes in Benghazi, where some 400 reported killed in past six weeks; army 21 Nov declared shutdown of Tripoli and Misrata airports; airstrike by unidentified jet 24 Nov targeted Tripoli’s Mitiga airport, controlled by Islamist Libya Dawn militia. Fighters loyal to HoR seized control of Kekla town in west, following weeks of clashes with Libya Dawn forces. Car bombs exploded outside Egypt, UAE embassies 13 Nov amid reports countries conducting airstrikes in Libya. UNSC 26 Nov expressed “profound concern” over security deterioration, warned of sanctions. Egyptian FM Sameh Shoukry 30 Nov announced regional FMs to meet 4 Jan to discuss support to Libya. Head of Tripoli-based legislature Omar al-Hassi 28 Nov said struggle for control of Libya’s oil could split country.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Military and political crisis continued despite repeated UN calls for ceasefire: anti-Islamist militia coalition led by Zintan-based groups, rebranded as “tribal army”, attacked western Jebel Nefusa towns allied to Islamist leaning coalition Libya Dawn, at least 21 reported killed. Fighting continued in Benghazi: groups allied to general Khalifa Haftar clashed with Islamist rivals, including 22 reported killed 15 Oct during Haftar’s seizure of Ansar al-Sharia base; at least 130 reported killed across city over following ten days. Tobruk-based internationally recognised parliament, House of Representatives (HoR), 19 Oct formally aligned with Haftar: HoR spokesman Farraj Hasshem described Haftar’s “Operation Dignity” against Islamists as Libyan army operation despite reports most Haftar fighters young tribesmen with no military background, allegations of abuses including summary executions of captive Islamists and their families. UNSG Ban 11 Oct visited Tripoli, urged peace talks; condemned both Haftar and Ansar al-Sharia. Prime minister of Islamist-supported parallel govt in Tripoli, Omar al-Hasi, 21 Oct held first public diplomatic meeting with Turkish envoy. Egyptian airstrikes reportedly struck Islamist forces in Benghazi 15 Oct, Egypt denied involvement; HoR member Tareq al-Garrouchi alleged planes were Egyptian, pilots Libyan.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Military and political standoffs continued as Islamist-leaning militia coalition continued to clash with anti-Islamist groups, country’s 2 rival legislatures refused to recognise each other’s legitimacy; state institutions in increasing disarray as neither Council of Representatives (CoR) based in Tobruk nor General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli exert control. More than 100 killed in clashes between supporters of Islamist-leaning Operation Libya Dawn and rivals on outskirts of Tripoli; dozens killed in Benghazi including 9 in clashes between Islamist groups and Khalifa Haftar’s troops 9 Sept; several assassinations by suspected Islamists targeting activists and journalists, including 14 killed 18-20 Sept. Up to 12 reported killed in clashes between militias and police near El Shahara oil field 17 Sept. CoR 4 Sept reportedly signed military agreement with Egypt following alleged Egyptian airstrikes on Islamist positions in Tripoli in Aug; more airstrikes reported mid- to late Sept. CoR 22 Sept approved PM al-Thinni’s new cabinet. Head of GNC-backed administration Omar al-Hassi 15 Sept called for international recognition; GNC mid-month sent emissaries to Chad and Sudan. Rival parliamentary factions 29 Sept held talks under UN auspices in Western town of Ghadames, reportedly agreed to call for ceasefire; Libyan Dawn rejected call, demanded disarmament of rivals; earlier unsuccessful mediation attempts in early-Sept and 17 Sept international conference in Madrid produced no clear plan of action, only agreement not to recognise Tripoli-based govt.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Fighting between Islamist leaning Misrata-led militia coalition and anti-Islamist Zintan-led coalition continued in Tripoli, UN attempt to broker ceasefire failed mid-month; Misrata-led forces 23 Aug captured Tripoli’s international airport and Zintanis withdrew from the capital, but armed confrontations likely to continue. Fighting fuelled by instalment of new parliament, Council of Representatives (CoR), in eastern city Tobruk: 158 of 188 newly elected MPs 4 Aug convened for swearing-in ceremony; pro-Misrata factions disputed relocation from Tripoli, claimed transfer of authority to new parliament unconstitutional, CoR biased against Islamist factions; appealed to Supreme Constitutional Court. Former parliament General National Congress (GNC) 25 Aug reconvened in Tripoli, elected Islamist backed Omar al-Hasi PM in challenge to CoR’s authority. Acting PM al-Thinni 28 Aug announced resignation to allow CoR to form new govt. Multiple unidentified air strikes through month targeting Islamist positions; U.S. officials late month said Egypt and UAE responsible, Egypt denied involvement. Fighting between former General Hiftar’s forces and Islamist militants continued in Benghazi. UNSC 27 Aug imposed sanctions on individuals fuelling fighting, ordered all arms transfers to be approved by UN sanctions committee.

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