CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Public discontent with NTC increased further, often due to continued presence of Qadhafi-era officials. NTC Behghazi office stormed 21 Jan by armed protesters, interim President Abdul Jalil attacked. Former Qadhafi insider and current NTC deputy head Abdulhafid Ghogha resigned following attack 19 Jan at university in Benghazi. Turf wars continued throughout month: 4 killed 3 Jan in clash between rival armed groups in Tripoli; at least 2 killed, 36 wounded 14-16 Jan in battle between militias from northwestern Gharyan and al-Asabia towns. NTC supporters 23 Jan forced out of Bani Walid by local uprising. NTC 2 Jan published draft electoral law without regulations for political parties, effectively forcing candidates to run as independents; rejected 14 Jan by 12 moderate Islamist parties. President Abdul Jalil 7 Jan met with Sudanese counterpart, discussed militia disarmament.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Increasing violent flare-ups between armed militias, amid major anti-govt protests, particularly in East, factional mistrust between regions, and deteriorating economy. Zintani militiamen controlling Tripoli airport 11 Dec attacked convoy led by senior Libyan commander; other isolated and sporadic gun battles across country. Defence minister Juwali 19 Dec said many weeks needed to resolve militia issue, months for proper army; 25 Dec announced scheme to integrate some 50,000 ex-rebels into army, police, security forces. Govt vowed to disarm Tripoli by 31 Dec; deadline for militias to leave city came and went 20 Dec. Following 26 Dec conference of “Union of Thwar in Libya”, purported to represent over 70% of ex-rebels, thwar demanded former rebels comprise 40% of NTC. Increased political turbulence, with lawyers’ protest in Tripoli 7 Dec calling for militias to leave, around 30,000 protesting in Benghazi mid Dec for greater govt transparency, representation of East in NTC, and purge of Qadhafi-era officials. ICC Chief Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo 15 Dec said Oct killing of Muammar Qadhafi may have been war crime. NTC chair Abd-al-Jalil said Qadhafi son Saadi, granted asylum in Niger, had infiltrated agents into govt. Human Rights Watch reported Saif Al-Islam Qadhafi denied access to lawyer. UNSC lifted sanctions on Central Bank. U.S. Sec Defence Panetta visited mid Dec.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Muammar Qadhafi son Saif al-Islam captured 19 Nov near Niger border; followed by 20 Nov capture of Qadhafi intelligence chief Abdallah Senoussi. Uncertainty over where his trial for war crimes to take place resolved after ICC prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo 24 Nov announced it would be in Libya. PM Abdurrahim El-Keib 23 Nov announced new govt. UN report 24 Nov stated Libya’s former rebels are holding 7,000 detainees, highlighted reports of war crimes committed by rebels and former govt forces in Sirte; Interior Minister Fawzy Abdul-Ali acknowledged abuses occurred, said new govt trying to eliminate them. Concerns over activities of local militias outside capital; 7 dead in 12-13 Nov clashes between rival factions near Zawiya town. 7 dead in 23 Nov clashes in Bani Walid between govt troops and Qadhafi loyalists.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

National Transitional Council (NTC) leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil 23 Oct declared liberation of Libya. Former dictator Qadhafi captured by rebel forces 20 Oct, died in custody. Prior to his death, remaining resistance concentrated in parts of central and southern Libya, principally Beni Walid, captured by NTC forces 17 Oct, and Sirte, captured 20 Oct. UNSC 27 Oct unanimously adopted Resolution 2016, ending authorisation of international military action. NATO 31 Oct ended operation, despite 26 Oct call by Jalil for it to stay until year-end. Remaining security concerns over need to demobilise brigades, remaining pro-Qadhafi forces, need for greater coordination among rebel forces. Some positive signs of groundwork for emergence of new National Army with battlefield union of eastern and Misratan brigades, and late Sept agreement between Tripoli Military Council and Misratan Brigades over policing of Tripoli. Political process remained stalled; Jalil 23 Oct said Shariah law would be “basic source” of legislation, laws contradicting Islam would be nullified. NTC 31 Oct announced academic Abdurrahim al-Keib new PM. Following international pressure NTC 24 Oct ordered investigation into death of Qadhafi. Amnesty International 13 Oct reported widespread abuse, torture by NTC forces of captured Qadhafi loyalists; Human Rights Watch reported apparent execution of 53 Qadhafi supporters.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Month saw heavy fighting between Transitional National Council (TNC) forces and pro-Qaddafi fighters in Bani Walid and Sirte following breakdown in negotiations; TNC 21 Sept seized Qaddafi stronghold of Sabha. ICRC 14 Sept said 13 mass graves discovered containing executed rebels. Convoy carrying heavily-armed pro-Qaddafi forces 2 Sept crossed into Niger, followed by former security chief Mansour Dao 6 Sept; TNC called on Niger to stop giving refuge to fleeing officials. Former PM Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi arrested in Tunisia 21 Sept; TNC requested extradition. TNC PM Mahmoud Jibril 10 Sept arrived in Tripoli for first time since fall of Qaddafi, appealed for unity and forgiveness; TNC head Mustafa Abdul Jalil 13 Sept called on Libyans to reject retribution, said TNC would not accept extremist ideologies. French President Sarkozy 1 Sept announced collective unfreezing of $15bn of Libyan assets during Paris conference; Jalil promised new constitution, elections within 18 months. British PM Cameron and Sarkozy 15 Sept visited Tripoli, met TNC leaders. UNGA 16 Sept accepted TNC credentials, partially lifted sanctions; UNSC 17 Sept adopted Resolution 2009 authorizing deployment of UN support mission to Libya for 3 months. NATO 21 Sept extended Libyan mandate for 90 days. International Organization for Migration 8 Sept said up to 300 black Africans crossing into Niger every day due to systematic targeting by TNC forces on suspicion of fighting for Qaddafi.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Month saw breakthrough with rebels gaining control of most of western Libya, seizing key towns including Zlitan and Zawiya before taking most of Tripoli 21 Aug; 23 Aug stormed Qaddafi Bab al-Azizia compound. Transitional National Council (TNC) 24 Aug reported 400 people killed during battle for capital, amidst reports of mass executions by pro-regime forces. Rebels late-month launched offensive towards remaining regime stronghold of Sirte, Qaddafi’s birthplace. Negotiations between rebels and local loyalist forces ongoing. Amid intense efforts to transfer frozen Libyan assets to TNC, UNSC agreed to unfreeze $1.5bn. UNSG Ban 26 Aug declared UNSC support for rapid deployment of UN mission to Libya. Leaked UN report 29 Aug revealed plans for 200 military observers, 190 UN police; TNC 31 Aug rejected international peacekeepers. TNC 25 Aug began relocating to Tripoli; at least 57 countries including Egypt, Tunisia now recognising TNC. TNC split regarding possible ICC trial of Qaddafi. Qaddafi 24 Aug announced intention to fight until “martyrdom or victory”, amid confused claims over fate of his sons. Several members of Qaddafi family granted refuge by Algeria. Qaddafi’s Interior Minister Nassr al-Mabrouk Abdullah 15 Aug fled to Egypt, PM Ali al-Mahmoudi 22 Aug reportedly in Tunisia, amid steady stream of senior defections. Relatives of slain rebel general Abdel Fattah Younes 2 Aug warned they would seek justice if TNC fails to conduct full investigation; TNC 8 Aug announced reshuffle citing procedural errors in handling case.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Military, diplomatic stalemate continued with minor progress on diplomatic front. Clashes between rebels, pro-Qaddafi forces continued around key towns including Brega, Misrata but little progress made by either side. Rebel forces control 200 km extending from Tunisian border inland; 6 July captured Gualish, 50 km from Tripoli; 28 July launched major western offensive, captured Ghazaya near Tunisian border. Transitional National Council (TNC) 28 July announced rebel military leader Maj. Gen. Adbel Fattah Younes and 2 aides assassinated by pro-Qaddafi forces after being summoned for questioning by TNC; TNC minister Ali Tarhouni 30 July claimed Islamist rebel Obaida Ibn Jarrah Brigade responsible. Rebels 20 July announced capture of pro-Qaddafi General Abdul Nabih Zayid near Zlitan; 31 July clashed with pro-Qaddafi loyalists in Benghazi. Regime shelling of Nalut and NATO airstrikes against Qaddafi forces, installations continued, despite increased pressure for negotiated settlement. TNC Chairman 24 July said Qaddafi may be permitted to remain in Libya as part of any political settlement, later recanted offer; ICC 26 July dismissed suggestion, said Libya obliged to arrest Qaddafi. 32-nation Contact Group on Libya, including U.S., UK 15 July officially recognised TNC as govt, major boost to rebel credibility. Qaddafi FM 21 July said negotiations only possible if rebels surrender, reaffirmed Qaddafi will not step down, but 22 July said talks previous weekend with U.S. in Tunisia “productive”, claimed regime had met with senior rebel leaders 6 times. Following latest round of negotiations UN special envoy Abdul al-Khatib 26 July said sides far from agreement.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Rebels 26 June began renewed push toward Tripoli amid fierce resistance from Colonel Muammar Qaddafi’s forces: heavy fighting reported around Bir al-Ghanam, 50km SW of capital. Govt 26 June proposed national dialogue, referendum on Qaddafi’s continued leadership; reports 27 June suggested negotiations taking place in Tunisia. Several civilians, rebel fighters killed in NATO airstrikes during month; officials ascribed deaths to targeting errors, weapons malfunctions. Italy and Arab League 22 June called for ceasefire to allow delivery of humanitarian aid, negotiations; NATO same day rejected proposal. ICC 27 June issued arrest warrants for Qaddafi, his son and intelligence chief for killing civilians. French officials 29 June said France had supplied Berber tribesmen with weapons, ammunition in unilateral airdrops early month; AU, Russia strongly condemned actions. China took steps to improve relationship with rebel Transitional National Council (TNC), holding high-level meetings with rebel representatives; Chinese FM 22 June called TNC “important dialogue partner”.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Stalemate between govt forces and rebels continued despite some rebel gains, escalation of international military action. Rebels 11 May claimed total control of western city Misrata, including port, airport; govt shelling continued mid-late month. NATO airstrikes against govt infrastructure increased; reports said bombing 24-25 May, targeting Muammar Qaddafi’s Tripoli compound, heaviest yet. Russia initially claimed attacks on Tripoli “gross violation” of UNSC civilian protection mandate, later month joined calls for Qaddafi’s departure. Reports late month of several major protests in Tripoli, first since violent suppression of unrest in Feb. U.S., EU continued to develop ties with rebels: EU 22 May opened liaison office in rebel de facto capital Benghazi; U.S. 24 May announced rebel mission to be opened in Washington. South African President Zuma 30 May began mediation visit intended to secure ceasefire; reports suggest little progress by end month. ICC prosecutor 16 May requested arrest warrants for Qaddafi, Saif al-Islam, Abdullah al-Sanousi for crimes against humanity, war crimes; warrants subject to approval by Court’s judges.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Fighting continued between govt forces and rebels, with neither able to strike decisive blow despite continuing international military action against Muammar Qaddafi’s forces. Ground action largely back-and-forth along central coast road, with exception of protracted siege of rebel-held city Misrata by govt troops, where rebels claim over 1,000 killed. UN HCHR 20 Apr said reported use of cluster munitions, targeting of medical facilities by govt forces could be war crimes. AU delegation 11 Apr proposed peace plan, including immediate ceasefire, negotiated transition. Qaddafi reportedly accepted; rebel Transitional National Council refused, ruling out any role for Qaddafi or sons in future govt. UK, France, Italy 19-20 Apr announced military advisory teams would be dispatched to bolster rebels. U.S. 20 Apr said it would provide $25mn in “non-lethal” assistance, 21 Apr announced start of Predator drone strikes. U.S. 22 Apr claimed 30-40% of Libyan ground forces destroyed, but confirmed war “moving towards stalemate”. Qaddafi 30 Apr offered ceasefire, negotiations but refused to leave country; rebels, NATO immediately rejected call as disingenuous ploy. Qaddafi’s youngest son, 3 grandchildren reported killed 1 May in NATO airstrike on Tripoli; govt accused NATO of assassination attempt, NATO denied targeting Qaddafi or family.

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