Tripoli-aligned forces claimed significant military victories as urban areas in capital Tripoli faced unprecedented shelling and civilian casualties, while socio-economic conditions continued to deteriorate amid COVID-19 lockdown and oil blockade; external military support on both sides could fuel an escalation in June. UN mission 19 May said fighting between UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) and General Haftar’s Arab Libyan Armed Forces (ALAF) killed at least 58 civilians since 1 April; almost double the number of civilian casualties in first quarter of 2020. ALAF forces throughout month launched repeated artillery strikes on Tripoli’s Meitiga airport and residential neighbourhoods; ALAF forces 7 May killed two police and one civilian in attack on Zawiyat al-Dahmani suburb in Tripoli near foreign ministry, Turkish embassy and Italian ambassador’s residence. GNA forces 5 May launched new offensive and 18 May seized control of ALAF-stronghold Wutiya airbase; dozens killed in offensive. ALAF 20 May announced tactical withdrawal from southern Tripoli neighbourhoods, under its control since April 2019 but fighting in city continued. Turkey continued sea and air deliveries of military aid to Libyan forces allied to Ankara; Russia delivered at least 14 MIG-29 and SU-24s fighter jets to Haftar-controlled bases throughout May, prompting U.S. 26 May to voice concern over Moscow’s increased military footprint in Libya and possible escalation. ALAF air force chief 21 May announced plan for “largest air campaign in Libyan history in coming hours” and said “all Turkish positions and interests in all cities are legitimate targets”. U.S., Russia, Turkey, UN and Algeria late May voiced support for ceasefire and resumption of political talks. Central Bank 1 May projected 2020 budget deficit of more than $18bn, in addition to loss of over $4.5bn due to ongoing ALAF-backed tribes blockade of oil production and export sites in place since mid-Jan. Austerity measures, including limits on foreign exchange, led to loss of income, food shortages, price spikes and supply chain disruptions; measures worsened impact of businesses closed due to COVID-19 public health measures and absence of govt financial plan to assist business owners.

Despite renewed international calls for ceasefire amid COVID-19 pandemic, fighting around capital Tripoli and in western Libya reached unprecedented levels of violence, with a strong likelihood of continued escalation in May; meanwhile financial pressures mounted. The battle for Tripoli reached one-year anniversary in early April as fighting intensified between Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Arab-Libyan Armed Forces (ALAF) and forces allied to Tripoli-based Govt of National Accord (GNA). ALAF forces early April continued missile strikes on southern Tripoli residential areas, causing civilian casualties, including 6 April targeted al-Hadba hospital equipped for COVID-19 patients. Tripoli residents week of 6 April suffered electricity shortages and cuts in water supply as pro-Haftar tribesmen in central Libya shut down water pumping station linked to Tripoli’s reservoirs. Turkey throughout month increased military support to GNA, partly enabling it to score significant victories across western Libya: GNA forces 14 April captured central coastal towns Sabratha and Sorman, under control of pro-Haftar tribesmen since 2018; GNA forces 18 April surrounded Tarhuna, ALAF stronghold in western Libya and base of operations for war on Tripoli. Meanwhile, GNA and ALAF forces throughout month continued confrontation near Sirte, central Libya, with heavy casualties reported on both sides, and GNA 12 April downed ALAF-operated, Russian-made attack helicopter. Turkish fighter jets 18 April conducted first ever military exercises over Misrata. Haftar 27 April declared that he accepted the people’s “mandate” to scrap 2015 UN-mediated Libyan Political Agreement and empower ALAF General Command to take control of country’s governing institutions; proposal divided supporters, adversaries called it a coup. Financial pressures increased in absence of oil revenues; ALAF-backed tribes continued blockade of oil production and export sites in place since mid-Jan, causing $4.5bn revenue shortfall. Increased dependence on foreign currency reserves led to tension between PM Serraj and Central Bank Governor Sadiq Al-Kabir; Central Bank 8 April adopted stringent measures on credit letters that paralysed food imports, increased both prices and black market requests for hard currency.

Fighting intensified around Tripoli and elsewhere as UN mediation efforts floundered. New round of fighting began mid-March between Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Arab-Libyan Armed Forces (ALAF) and forces allied to Tripoli-based Govt of National Accord (GNA). ALAF 19 March fired missiles on Ain Zara neighbourhood killing four civilians. GNA 20 March reportedly killed 25 ALAF fighters. GNA fighters from Misrata attempting to recapture Sirte, under ALAF control since early Jan, clashed occasionally with ALAF. UN Security Council-recognised National Oil Corporation (NOC) in Tripoli 16 March reported illegal shipments of jet fuel arriving in ALAF-held Benghazi from United Arab Emirates (UAE). ALAF-backed tribes maintained closure of oil production and export sites causing $3bn shortfall since blockade began mid-Jan. UN Sec-Gen’s Special Representative Ghassan Salamé resigned 2 March, dealing blow to peace talks. Salamé’s political deputy, U.S. diplomat Stephanie Williams, named acting head of UN mission 11 March. Embassies of Algeria, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Turkey, UK, U.S., EU delegation, and govts of Tunisia and UAE 17 March called on conflict parties to declare humanitarian ceasefire, halt transfers of military equipment and personnel, and allow local authorities to respond to COVID-19 challenge. GNA and ALAF issued responses 18 and 21 March respectively, but fighting escalated thereafter dashing hopes of ceasefire. GNA 25 March launched offensive to capture ALAF-controlled Wutiya airbase south west of Tripoli, but failed and retreated with ALAF prisoners; ALAF forces moved west taking control of small towns of Jmeil and Ragdalin. Fighting escalated around Abu Ghrein, near Sirte from 28 March: dozens killed on both sides, reportedly including at least six high-level ALAF commanders.

Despite intense diplomacy aimed at brokering ceasefire in Jan, fighting and arms imports continued throughout month and UN-led talks faltered. Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Arab Libyan Armed Forces (ALAF, previously Libyan National Army) kept up assault on capital Tripoli held by forces loyal to UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA). Rockets hit Tripoli’s Meitiga airport and 6 Feb Tripoli University causing no casualties. Strike on residential neighbourhood of Nauwfiliyin 12 Feb killed one. Missile hit Tripoli’s functioning port 18 Feb; Turkish President Erdoğan 22 Feb said Turkish military had suffered losses in Libya, possibly reference to two Turkish soldiers presumed killed in port strike. Haftar 23 Feb claimed his forces had killed sixteen Turkish soldiers, figure believed to be exaggerated. Both sides continued to receive shipments of arms and military equipment from external backers. Cargo flights landed in Benghazi city from Haftar allies Jordan and United Arab Emirates early Feb; Turkey reportedly continued shipments of military equipment to Tripoli for GNA forces and pro-Turkey Syrian fighters continued to arrive, now estimated at over 2,000. Talks between five ALAF and five GNA military representatives in Geneva early Feb failed to produce ceasefire agreement; GNA initially called off second meeting due 18 Feb following ALAF strike on Tripoli port but subsequently talks resumed without producing agreement. Negotiations on new governing framework and new govt of national unity kicked off 26 Feb but GNA and House of Representatives pulled their delegates citing lack of progress in military talks. UN hosted talks on financial/economic track in Cairo 16-17 Feb with no breakthrough. Oil sector closures supported by pro-Haftar tribes continued, reportedly causing revenue shortfall of over $2bn. UN Security Council 12 Feb adopted first conflict-related resolution since April 2019 outbreak of hostilities, calling on parties to commit to ceasefire and on UN member states to comply with arms embargo, Russia abstained. EU foreign affairs ministers 17 Feb agreed to launch new operation in Mediterranean Sea to enforce UN arms embargo, expected to launch in March.

Diplomatic efforts intensified to de-escalate conflict between forces loyal to UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA) and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Arab Libyan Armed Forces (ALAF, previously known as Libyan National Army), but fell short of ceasefire deal. Turkish parliament 2 Jan approved deployment of troops and naval assets to Libya in support of PM Serraj’s GNA. In subsequent weeks, Ankara reportedly sent 2,000 allied Syrian fighters and dozens of Turkish military experts to capital Tripoli. Airstrike on military academy in Tripoli 4 Jan reportedly killed at least 30, most of them students; GNA blamed ALAF, who denied involvement. ALAF 6 Jan seized control of coastal city of Sirte. Russia, Haftar’s ally, and Turkey 8 Jan called for ceasefire starting 12 Jan and return to negotiating table; for a week starting 12 Jan, both sides refrained from aerial strikes and only exchanged minor artillery fire. Russia and Turkey 13 Jan brought Haftar and Serraj to Moscow in attempt to seal seven-point ceasefire agreement; Serraj signed it, but Haftar rejected it. Pro-Haftar local tribes 17 Jan shut down oil production and exports, prompting production to plummet from 1.2mn barrels per day to 300,000 overnight; blockade was ongoing as of 31 Jan. Leaders from twelve countries including Russia, Turkey, Egypt, Germany, France, Italy and UK, as well as representatives of UN, EU, African Union and League of Arab States, attended much-delayed international peace conference in Berlin 19 Jan, called on warring parties and their foreign backers to “redouble efforts” for sustained suspension of hostilities; commit to implement UN arms embargo; and support UN-backed political process. In Berlin, Serraj and Haftar did not attend conference, but reportedly agreed to appoint representatives to military committee scheduled to meet in Geneva under UN auspices by end of Jan to discuss details of ceasefire; military talks were later postponed. Fighting resumed late Jan in Tripoli: ALAF airstrikes 29 Jan killed four civilians in southern Hadba neighbourhood.

Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) made some advances in offensive to take capital Tripoli from UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA) as UN-led efforts to promote ceasefire remained stalled, and Turkey’s potential deployment of troops to support GNA could escalate fighting in coming weeks. LNA raided Al-Swani neighbourhood south of Tripoli 1 Dec, reportedly killing five children. Haftar 12 Dec urged his forces to advance toward centre of Tripoli in what he said would be “final battle” for capital. In following days, LNA forces intensified shelling and published footage of reinforcements coming from eastern Libya to Tripoli, and Russian-provided attack helicopters flying over capital. GNA 19 Dec approved implementation of military deal signed with Turkey in Nov, paving way for reinforced Turkish military and logistical support. Turkish parliament 30 Dec debated bill that, if passed in 2 Jan session, could empower govt to send troops to Libya to reinforce GNA. LNA 20 Dec gave GNA-affiliated militias from Misrata 72 hours to leave Tripoli and coastal city of Sirte, threatening to further target Misrata with airstrikes. Berlin 10 Dec hosted fifth UN-backed meeting to prepare ground for peace process, but parties remained at odds over ceasefire conditions.

Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) kept up its offensive to take capital Tripoli from UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA) as UN-led efforts to promote ceasefire faltered. LNA deployed more military personnel, reportedly including Russian military aides, to Tripoli front lines from rear bases in east. LNA airstrike 3 Nov hit Tripoli’s Mitiga airport, closed since Sept; LNA early Nov upped airstrikes in southern Salaheddin neighbourhood, forcing GNA to retreat toward city centre; LNA 19 Nov shelled areas in city centre near oil and gas storage tanks; LNA 18 Nov hit factory in southern Wadi Rabia neighbourhood, killing at least ten including foreign workers. LNA also targeted GNA bases and ammunition depots in other regions: LNA hit Misrata airport and weapons storage depot in residential area in Misrata 19 Nov; 14 Nov hit Sirte airport; 28 Nov LNA struck Tebu armed groups loyal to GNA after latter previous day tried to take over al-Feel oil site in south. GNA tried to drum up international support: following interior and foreign ministers’ visit to Washington DC mid-Nov, U.S. State Department issued its strongest statement yet against LNA offensive, also condemning “Russia’s attempts to exploit the conflict”. GNA and Turkey 26 Nov signed security deal and agreement on reciprocal jurisdiction over Mediterranean waters that inflamed tensions with Greece and Egypt. As a result, UN-backed initiative aimed at pushing two sides’ foreign backers to support ceasefire and commit to stop funnelling weapons to Libyan allies faltered. Libyan parties continued to disagree on ceasefire conditions.

Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) intensified airstrikes on forces allied to UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA) and civilian targets as it pursued campaign to take capital Tripoli; UN kept up diplomatic efforts to push two sides’ international backers to support ceasefire. LNA stepped up air-strikes against GNA’s strategic sites, notably hitting Misrata airport 5 Oct and large weapons depot in Misrata 16 Oct. LNA denied targeting civilians after suspected LNA airstrike on horse-riding club in Janzur west of Tripoli 6 Oct wounded six; and strike near military intelligence camp in Tripoli’s Fornaj neighbourhood killed three girls 14 Oct. Unidentified gunmen 16 Oct killed two women and three children on road from Aziziya to capital Tripoli; LNA accused GNA-allied militias. GNA-backed offensive against LNA stronghold in Tarhunah, 60km south east of capital reportedly killed eleven LNA supporters 16 Oct. GNA 27 Oct launched attack on Haftar’s forces in southern Tripoli to regain positions lost mid-Oct, said it took eight LNA fighters prisoner. Germany hosted third UN-backed meeting of international stakeholders 21 Oct with view to holding international conference on Libya by end of year, but parties continued to disagree on right approach; UN pushed for minimum agreement on cessation of hostilities while some regional capitals demanded comprehensive political, military and financial plan. LNA 19 Oct expressed support for ongoing UN-backed talks, but said no political process would be possible without first eradicating militias in Tripoli.

Fighting continued in capital Tripoli and airstrikes hit elsewhere, as UN led preparations for international conference to take place late Oct or Nov aimed at aligning foreign stakeholders behind de-escalation efforts. In Tripoli, balance of power remained about equal between armed groups affiliated to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) and those aligned with UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA). Forces clashed sporadically in several neighbourhoods. LNA and GNA continued to launch drone strikes on locations further afield including Misrata and Sirte on Mediterranean coast and Jufra in centre. In first significant blow against LNA stronghold in Tarhunah, 60km south east of capital, GNA strike 13 Sept reportedly killed eleven, including three senior military figures aligned with LNA. Authorities shut down Tripoli’s GNA-held Mitiga airport after rocket 1 Sept narrowly missed plane carrying pilgrims, LNA denied responsibility. GNA drone strike allegedly carried out by Turkish operators hit LNA-base in Jufra area around 9-10 Sept, reportedly killing United Arab Emirates officers. In apparent retaliation, LNA stepped up air attacks, with strikes on Tripoli’s Mitiga and Misrata airports 17-18 Sept; LNA 16 Sept struck GNA affiliates in Sirte area, killing two combatants. Four U.S. airstrikes killed 43 suspected Islamic State (ISIS) combatants near town of Murzuq in south 19, 25, 27 and 29 Sept. UN envoy Ghassan Salamé held high-level meetings in Ankara, Cairo and Abu Dhabi in late Aug and early Sept, intensifying outreach to main foreign stakeholders to obtain commitments to stop providing weapons to local proxies and participate in conference in Berlin in late Oct or Nov. Ministerial-level representatives attended preliminary technical meeting in Berlin 17 Sept and foreign ministers 26 Sept attended event on Libya on margins of UN General Assembly in New York. During speech at UN in New York, UN-backed PM Serraj 25 Sept called Haftar “war criminal” and ruled out peace talks, hours later Haftar said he was open to dialogue with GNA.

Deadly stalemate persisted in and around capital Tripoli between Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) and forces nominally loyal to UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA), and fighting escalated in south between militias allied to GNA and LNA. Fighting in and around Tripoli led to no substantial change in territorial control amid humanitarian crisis with over 100,000 displaced, many sheltering in schools. LNA airstrike 2 Aug reportedly killed three GNA fighters in al-Saddadah south east of Tripoli. LNA 15 Aug reportedly shelled Tripoli’s Mitiga airport, killing one guard, and 15-16 Aug bombed Zuwara airport west of Tripoli which it said housed Turkish drones. LNA drone mid-Aug reportedly struck field hospital in al-Aziziya south of Tripoli, drawing UN’s condemnation. After brief lull in fighting 11-12 Aug during Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha, LNA resumed attacks 13 Aug. GNA 21 Aug reportedly retook Sebea district south of Tripoli. Seventeen LNA fighters 23 Aug reportedly surrendered to GNA south of Tripoli. In south, clashes escalated in Murzuq, by late Aug leaving at least 100 people dead and 3,000 displaced. After clashes between unidentified armed groups 4 Aug left four dead, suspected LNA airstrike same day killed at least 43 in Murzuq; locals claim that LNA denied killing civilians and said airstrike targeted “Chadian opposition fighters”. GNA-allied militia known as South Protection Force 18 Aug said it had expelled LNA forces from Murzuq. LNA next day reportedly sent reinforcements to maintain control of nearby Sharara oilfield. In Misrata, about 200km east of Tripoli, LNA 6 Aug hit cargo plane landing at air college and 17 Aug bombed GNA air base; GNA next day said it had downed LNA drone. In Benghazi in east, car bomb 10 Aug killed five, including three UN staffers, prompting UN Sec-Gen Guterres to call for internal investigation.