CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
UN Envoy Ghassan Salamé continued negotiations to amend parts of 2015 Libyan Political Agreement, 16 Nov told UN Security Council he was confident consensus was close on remaining issues and preparations were underway for National Conference in Feb 2018 as per his action plan. Osama Juwaili, head of Military Council in western city of Zintan and Govt of National Accord (GNA)-appointed commander of western region military zone, formed coalition of militias, early Nov launched “anti-crime” military operation and after six-day operation 8 Nov took control of Aziziya, 41km south west of capital Tripoli, stronghold of Warshefana tribe. Faraj Ghaim, GNA deputy interior minister, after surviving car bombing 5 Nov in Benghazi in east, 10 Nov gave armed groups loyal to east-based strongman General Haftar 48 hours to leave Benghazi. Armed groups led by Haftar’s sons, and Sahawat fighters, reacted by pre-emptively seizing Ghaim’s camps in Benghazi. UN Secretary-General Guterres 20 Nov said he was “horrified” after CNN 15 Nov reported African migrants were being auctioned as slaves in Libya and said he had asked relevant UN actors to investigate. East-based parliament House of Representatives 21 Nov approved Salamé-proposed action plan, but Tripoli-based advisory body State Council demanded further changes.
Talks led by UN envoy Ghassan Salamé aimed at renegotiating parts of 2015 Libyan Political Agreement faltered, as violence escalated in west and risked erupting again in Nov. Delegation from east-based House of Representatives pulled out of second round of talks mid-Oct, demanding west-based State Council put its position in writing; Salamé 21 Oct ended talks without setting date for new round. Anti-ISIS Operations Room, militia nominally under Tripoli govt authority, 5 Oct said it had taken full control of western city of Sabratha from Dabashi Brigade and allied militias also nominally allied to Tripoli; at least 39 killed in weeks of fighting. Fighting risks erupting in Zwara and Zawiya, west and east of Sabratha respectively. Military advances suggested growing influence of east-based strongman General Haftar in west. Several units aligned with Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) moved to re-establish themselves near Sabratha after fighting ended. Forces with sympathies for LNA 9 Oct also took control of Ras Jdir on border with Tunisia and area near Mellitah, where Italian oil and gas company ENI has natural gas facility. Islamic State (ISIS) suicide bombing at court in Misrata 4 Oct killed at least four people and wounded nearly 40; undetonated car bomb found nearby. ISIS 25 Oct claimed attack on checkpoint south of LNA-controlled Ajdabiya in east that left two soldiers dead. UN 10 Oct said LNA’s siege of Derna in east continued to restrict entry of medical supplies and at least three health workers detained at checkpoints near city remained incommunicado. Airstrikes on Derna by unidentified warplanes 30 Oct killed at least fifteen civilians.
Ghassan Salamé, UN envoy for Libya, 20 Sept unveiled three-step plan to break political stalemate including renegotiation of parts of 2015 peace deal, conference aimed at appointing new Presidency Council reducing nine members to three and preparation of elections; international actors voiced unanimous support. Negotiations between rival parliamentary bodies House of Representatives and State Council began 25 Sept in Tunis as first step in UN plan. Representatives of Libyan National Army (LNA) loyal to eastern-based strongman General Haftar visited Moscow early Sept and French and Italian ministers made separate visits to his headquarters; Haftar also visited Rome and Paris 27-28 Sept in ongoing consultations. Members of State Council representing city of Derna 14 Sept called on UN Human Rights Council to take action to end LNA’s siege on city and avoid humanitarian disaster. Rival armed groups Dabashi Brigade and Anti-ISIS Operations Room clashed in Sabratha area, 80km west of Tripoli mid to late Sept, at least seventeen killed, clashes lessened end-Sept. Migrant departures to Europe resumed after lull in July and Aug; at least 100 left Sabratha 15 Sept, over half feared drowned after boat ran out of fuel. U.S. airstrikes 22 Sept killed seventeen alleged Islamic State (ISIS) fighters in camp some 200km south east of Sirte.
International Criminal Court (ICC) 15 Aug issued arrest warrant for war crimes for controversial Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Mahmoud Warfalli, loyal to eastern-based strongman Gen Haftar. LNA early Aug intensified military campaign and cut supplies to wrest control of Derna city in east from coalition of Islamist militants known as Derna Mujahideen Shura Council (DMSC). At least eleven people – nine soldiers and two civilians – beheaded 23 Aug in attack on checkpoint controlled by Haftar forces in Al-Jufra region south of Sirte; LNA accused Islamic State (ISIS) but no group claimed responsibility. Suicide bomber drove car into LNA checkpoint near town of Nufliya, 130km east of Sirte 31 Aug, killing four members of security forces; ISIS claimed responsibility. Tripoli-based UN-backed Presidency Council 7 Aug condemned LNA siege on Derna for worsening humanitarian situation there. Members of armed group affiliated to govt of PM Serraj 13 Aug kidnapped former PM Ali Zeidan in Tripoli, released him 22 Aug. For first time in months in July number of migrants crossing from Libya to Europe decreased – down to 11,000, 50% less than in July 2016. Militia in Reyaina, north west of Tripoli, late Aug closed pipeline valve, blocking transit of crude oil from oil fields in south west and Hamada region to Zawiya terminal; state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) subsequently declared force majeure at several oil fields and export sites. Uncertainty continued to surround constitution drafting process after court in al-Bayda in east 17 Aug annulled July’s vote by Constitution Drafting Assembly in favour of draft constitution.
UN-backed Tripoli-based PM Serraj 15 July announced roadmap to end crisis, including parliamentary and presidential elections in March 2018, gradual merging of rival parliamentary bodies, and nationwide ceasefire. Serraj and eastern-based strongman Gen Haftar in France 25 July issued ten-point joint declaration committing to ceasefire, working toward parliamentary and presidential elections and securing territory against terrorism and trafficking. Haftar in following days told Saudi newspaper that not everything in Paris agreement can be implemented. UN-backed education ministry 3 July said gunmen attacked minister’s convoy in Sebha in south and briefly detained part of team. During fighting between rival groups at and around Mitiga airport east of capital Tripoli 4 July, stray rocket hit beach, killing five people, including at least one child. After Haftar 5 July announced his Libyan National Army (LNA) had retaken Benghazi in east, at least twelve LNA killed in clashes with rival armed groups there; more clashes killed six LNA troops 22 July. Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) voted in favour of latest draft constitution 29 July, but some CDA members claimed irregularities; remains unclear if vote was legal. Serraj 31 July called for referendum on draft constitution. After Italian PM Gentiloni 27 July said plan to deploy Italian vessels in Libyan waters to combat human trafficking would be presented to parliament, UN-backed PM Serraj denied having agreed plan with Rome and said that his administration had approved that Italy provide only training and arms.
Forces aligned with eastern-based strongman Gen Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) 2 June moved into strategic towns of Waddan, Hun and Sawkna in central desert region of Jufra, clashing with rival coalition Benghazi Defence Brigade (BDB) which includes members of jihadist group Ansar Sharia; twelve killed. LNA forces supported by Egyptian airstrikes 3 June took over Jufra air base, ousting Misratan forces and their allies including BDB. In Benghazi in east, after two days of heavy fighting LNA 24 June said it had gained control of central Souq Al Hout neighbourhood, one of last two districts where it still faced armed resistance; at least thirteen LNA fighters reportedly killed. Militia in al-Zawiya city in north west shot dead two members of rival militia 3 June sparking heavy clashes. Under amnesty law promulgated by eastern Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR), Abu Bakr al-Sadiq Brigade that controls town of Zintan in west said it had freed Seif al-Islam Qadhafi, son of former President Qadhafi, 9 June after over five years in captivity. Protesters in Bani Walid in west 24 June called for Seif al-Islam Qadhafi to lead country. UN Security Council 20 June approved appointment of former Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salamé as new UN envoy for Libya, replacing German diplomat Martin Kobler. Unidentified gunmen 28 June opened fire on UN political mission (UNSMIL) convoy on coastal road west of Tripoli, no casualties reported. Eastern-based govt broke off ties with Qatar 5 June following Saudi Arabia and allies (see Qatar).
Deadly attacks in south and Tripoli throughout month severely dimmed prospects of reconciliation and heightened risk of escalation in June. UN-backed Tripoli-based PM Serraj and major military opponent Gen Khalifa Haftar met for first time in over a year in UAE capital Abu Dhabi 2 May, reportedly agreed two-week ceasefire in south. Misratan-led unit Third Force with Benghazi Defence Brigade (BDB), coalition comprising mostly fighters from Benghazi, and local units, nominally loyal to Serraj, attacked military base in Brak al-Shati in south 18 May, killing 80 to 130 members of Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) and civilians; pictures online suggested most were shot at close range. Serraj claimed Govt of National Accord (GNA) did not know attack was planned. Under pressure from Misratan constituencies who condemned attack, Third Force withdrew from south (where it had been since 2014) and relocated to Jufra area in centre, where BDB also has presence. LNA moved into Temenhent air base near Sebha 25 May and carried out airstrikes on rival forces in Hun and Jufra. Retaliating against Islamic State (ISIS)-claimed killing of Coptic Christians near Minya, central Egypt 26 May, Egyptian air force bombed Derna in east same day and Hun in centre 28 May to limit terrorist groups’ ability to “threaten national security”. Anti-GNA forces attacked bases of pro-GNA units in Tripoli 26 May, 52 killed. Pro-GNA forces subsequently took back bases and reportedly reclaimed control of Tripoli international airport. Some Misratan forces reportedly withdrew from capital.
In south, forces loyal to eastern-based strongman General Haftar continued to clash with forces led by factions from Misrata in west, nominally loyal to UN-backed Presidency Council (PC). Forces aligned with Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) early April tried to seize Tamenhint air base on outskirts of Sabha town from Misratan-led militias. Unclaimed airstrike on prison in Sabha 25 April reportedly killed two guards and three prisoners. Crude oil production and exports fell again due to closures of oil and gas pipelines in west, causing value of Libyan dinar to fall and prices of consumer goods to rise. International Criminal Court 24 April unsealed arrest warrant issued in 2013 for former head of Internal Security Agency Al-Tuhamy Mohamed Khaled for crimes against humanity and war crimes during crackdown on anti-govt protests in 2011. In eastern Tobruk-based parliament House of Representatives (HoR) some 30 MPs including those supportive of current Central Bank governor 25 April reportedly blocked vote to replace him. Representatives of southern tribes 2 April in Rome discussed stabilisation of south and possible border control. Rival presidents of HoR and State Council (advisory body loyal to PC and formed under Libyan Political Agreement) 21 April met in Rome. After offshore gun battle coastguard 27 April seized Congolese and Ukrainian-flagged tankers and detained crews for allegedly smuggling oil.
Fighting intensified over oil installations in Gulf of Sirte and in capital Tripoli where violence risks escalating in April between local forces and factions from Misrata. Armed coalition Benghazi Defence Brigade (BDB), comprising mostly fighters from Benghazi opposed to east-based strongman Gen Khalifa Haftar and including members of jihadist group Ansar Sharia, 3 March took over key oil terminals of Sidra and Ras Lanuf, ousting Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). LNA re-took terminals and pushed BDB back to Jufra by 13 March. Eastern Tobruk-based parliament House of Representatives (HoR) condemned attack by BDB, which it considers terrorist group and which enjoys informal backing by some members of rival internationally-recognised Presidency Council (PC) in Tripoli. Several dozen HoR members 7 March voted to withdraw from UN-backed dialogue intended to bridge rift between PC and HoR, however votes insufficient to pass withdrawal from dialogue. Sidra oil terminal 25 March prepared to resume exports. Haftar’s LNA 18 March made advances in Benghazi, reportedly taking over Ganfuda neighbourhood from Benghazi Revolutionaries’ Shura Council coalition of Islamist militias. In several neighbourhoods in Tripoli rival armed groups clashed early March: fighting reported between pro- and anti-PC forces allied to rival Tripoli-based govt of Khalifa Ghwel; between Tripoli and Misratan militias, including pro-PC Misratan forces; and between pro- and anti-Haftar forces. Quartet (UN, EU, AU and Arab League) in Cairo 18 March underscored commitment to Dec 2015 Libyan Political Agreement.
Algeria’s diplomatic initiative, launched mid-Jan to find common ground with Tunisia and Egypt on Libyan crisis, continued after FMs of three countries met in Tunis 19 Feb. Egypt was supposed to host meeting between UN-backed Tripoli-based PM Faez Serraj and east-based strongman Gen Khalifa Haftar mid-Feb, but instead Haftar and Serraj met separately with Gen Mahmoud Hegazy, Egyptian army chief of staff and Cairo’s point man on Libya. Serraj and Italian PM Paolo Gentiloni 2 Feb signed MoU aimed at stemming flow of migrants to Europe; Italy offered to train and equip security forces and coast guard, build migrant holding centres and help put in place technology to secure Libya’s southern border. Anti-Serraj factions in Tripoli said Serraj did not have authority to sign MoU and appealed against it in court. Military factions tied to Serraj’s rival Tripoli-based PM Khalifa Ghwel 9 Feb said they had created Libyan National Guard, umbrella force that explicitly challenges UN-backed Presidential Guard. Serraj-led Presidency Council 12 Feb declared Libyan National Guard illegal, but latter continued to patrol in Tripoli. Rival armed groups clashed in Tripoli 23-24 Feb after one accused other of kidnapping four members, nine people injured in eastern Abu Slim district; Govt of National Accord-brokered ceasefire went into force 25 Feb. Unidentified gunmen 20 Feb opened fire on convoy of Serraj and two allied high-level politicians in Tripoli, no casualty. Security chief of Benghazi in east Salah al-Hewidi, who refused to leave his post after being sacked, reportedly wounded in car bomb attack in Benghazi 22 Feb. Car bomb targeting military convoy 26 Feb exploded in Benghazi’s Al-Hawari district, reportedly killing two. Authorities in east 21 Feb temporarily froze their own 16 Feb directive barring women under 60 from travelling abroad without male guardian, 23 Feb imposed travel restrictions on all citizens under 45. UNICEF 28 Feb reported that women and children migrants trying to reach Europe had been abused and arbitrarily detained including in Libya.
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