CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Libya

East-based strongman General Khalifa Haftar, opposed to Tripoli-based UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA), made military and diplomatic gains: his Libyan National Army (LNA) 31 Dec-1 Jan pushed Islamic State (IS) and allies out of Ganfouda, one of few districts in Benghazi still under their control. Following Dec visit to Moscow, Haftar boarded Russian aircraft carrier off Libyan coast 11 Jan and spoke with Russian defence minister via video conference reportedly about fight against terrorism and possibility of re-activating Qadhafi-era contracts for Russian weapons. Internal divisions in UN-backed Presidency Council (PC) worsened after Musa al-Koni, one of PM designate Serraj’s deputies from south, resigned 2 Jan saying PC had “failed”. GNA continued to face budgetary constraints as Central Bank delayed disbursement of 4bn Libyan dinars (about $2.7bn) requested for first quarter of 2017. Two U.S. B-2 bombers 18 Jan bombed two IS camps south of Sirte, reportedly killing some 80 suspected militants.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Islamic State (IS) defeated in Sirte but fighting between rival forces escalated, risking greater violent confrontation around Sirte, Jufra or Tripoli in Jan. Misratan-led forces, nominally loyal to internationally recognised Presidency Council (PC), backed by U.S. airstrikes, early Dec claimed full control of Sirte. Rifts over control of city emerged mid-Dec: PC-supported city council 11 Dec elected civilian mayor close to eastern strongman General Haftar, while Misratan militias 13 Dec appointed rival military governor and east-based govt appointed its own (remote) governor for Sirte. In move westward toward Sirte, Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) 9 Dec took control of key military base from Misratan forces in Brak Shati, 200km south of Sirte. Haftar 14 Dec called on officers and soldiers to be ready for offensive to “free” Tripoli. Two Islamist-leaning anti-Haftar coalitions and forces loyal to former local strongman Ibrahim Jedran 7 Dec launched offensive to retake control of oil export facilities in oil crescent from Haftar’s LNA, LNA pushed back forces to Jufra with airstrikes. PC denied it supported offensive but PC’s Defence Minister Al-Barghathi in Govt of National Accord reportedly provided legal and financial assistance to attackers. LNA 26 Dec carried out “pre-emptive” airstrike against camp of Benghazi Defence Brigades loyal to PC in central Jufra region. Operations mid-Dec resumed at two key oil fields, Sharara and El Feel, and connected Rayaina pipeline in west after two-year shutdown. Rival militias clashed in Tripoli early Dec, at least eight people reportedly killed including civilians. Military plane affiliated with Libyan Air Force loyal to PC 22 Dec crashed SE of Tripoli, killing both pilots. Bodies of two police found in Tripoli 26 Dec, unrest followed in some districts. In east, LNA 17 Dec said it had taken control of seafront buildings west of Benghazi district of Ganfouda; suicide attack claimed by IS 18 Dec targeted LNA in Ganfouda, at least seven soldiers killed. Two men 23 Dec hijacked domestic flight from Sabha en route to Tripoli, diverted it to Malta, released passengers and surrendered.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Peace process continued to unravel. U.S. Sec State Kerry 31 Oct-1 Nov convened members of UN-backed Presidency Council (PC), Central Bank of Libya, Tripoli-based Audit Bureau and National Oil Corporation in London to pressure them to agree on new mechanisms to disburse funds to Govt of National Accord (GNA); parties agreed PM-designate Serraj would appoint finance minister to liaise with Central Bank. Serraj 13 Nov appointed Osama Saleh as finance minister and other deputy ministers without consulting eastern Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). At follow-up conference in Rome 18 Nov same stakeholders agreed to increase oil production and sales, support dinar and prioritise public services in 2017 budget. Several Islamic State (IS) members 22 Nov reportedly surrendered to forces loyal to PC following clashes in Sirte that killed at least five soldiers. In east, two commanders in General Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) abducted and killed early Nov; GNA Defence Minister Al-Barghathi 6 Nov accused Haftar of orchestrating killings. LNA 17 Nov said it had taken control of Guwarsha district in Benghazi in east from Islamist-led militias. Car bombing outside hospital in Benghazi 21 Nov killed at least three. Serraj 15 Nov urged armed groups in Jufra in centre to refrain from launching offensive against Haftar’s LNA forces. Monkey belonging to ethnic Gaddadfa shopkeeper 17 Nov attacked girl in Sabha (south) sparking retaliation by Awlad Suleiman tribe and four-day clashes that killed at least sixteen.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Power struggles in Tripoli revealed weakening support for UN-backed PM-designate Serraj and his Presidency Council (PC). Former Tripoli-based PM Khalifa Ghwel and former members of defunct legislative body General National Congress (GNC) 14 Oct seized premises of State Council, advisory body formed under Libyan Political Agreement comprising mainly former GNC members, and declared themselves back in power. Ghwel same day called on eastern Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) to join him and establish national govt against UN-backed Govt of National Accord. Units of Presidential Guard, nominally pro-Serraj force, and some Tripoli-based armed groups, especially those within umbrella coalition Libya Revolutionaries Operations Room, expressed support for Ghwel 14 Oct. Small clashes between opposed armed groups across Tripoli occurred same and following days. State Council 16 Oct said it was still operating and would relocate, Serraj 17 Oct vowed to restore order, called on attorney general to arrest plotters. Meanwhile PC continued trying to draw up new cabinet to accommodate demands of Tobruk-based HoR parliamentarians supportive of General Khalifa Haftar, opposed to Serraj. Car exploded in eastern Benghazi 29 Oct, killing at least three including political activist close to Haftar. Misratan-led forces, nominally loyal to PC, continued to fight Islamic State (IS) in Sirte, at least eight killed 2 Oct repelling IS ambush. Serraj met world leaders for crisis talks in London 31 Oct.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Libyan National Army (LNA) of General Khalifa Haftar, opposed to internationally recognised Presidency Council (PC), 11 Sept took control of crude oil export terminals of Sidra, Brega, Zuwetina and Ras Lanuf, and Ras Lanuf petrochemical plant and refinery, defeating or co-opting PC-allied Petroleum Facilities Guards. Local anti-Haftar forces in following days launched several counteroffensives without success. Oil exports resumed late-month after three-year break through Tripoli-based internationally recognised National Oil Corporation (NOC). PM-designate Serraj 27 Sept said Haftar should be represented in new, more inclusive govt, pledged to “quickly” submit new cabinet line-up. In Sirte, Misratan-led forces, nominally loyal to PC, continued fighting Islamic State (IS); ten IS and nine pro-PC fighters reportedly killed 22 Sept; two U.S. airstrikes 26 Sept killed six IS fighters. Unidentified gunmen 19 Sept kidnapped two Italians and one Canadian near border with Algeria.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Conflict deepened between supporters and opponents of UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA) of PM-designate Serraj. In controversial 22 Aug vote, Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) rejected GNA with 60 voting against, one in favour and 40 abstaining; other HoR members boycotted vote considering it illegal. GNA’s Presidential Council 24 Aug acknowledged HoR vote and said it would submit revised cabinet. In Tripoli, pro- and anti-Serraj armed groups early Aug fought over control of govt buildings. In Sirte, Misratan-led forces, nominally under Serraj’s command, continued to advance to retake control of city from Islamic State (IS) but suffered heavy death toll, with at least 34 killed 28 Aug. U.S. 1 Aug said it had begun airstrikes supporting anti-IS advance, carried out almost 100 in area throughout month. In Benghazi, General Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) launched strikes against strongholds of Shura Council coalition in Ganfuda neighbourhood, claiming it is an IS-affiliate and therefore legitimate target; residents accused LNA of indiscriminate shelling. Suicide car bomb attack against LNA troops 2 Aug killed 23, Shura Council claimed responsibility. In oil crescent east of Sirte, forces under control of local strongman and GNA ally Ibrahim Jedran kept control of oil terminals despite threat of LNA advances.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Rival political and military forces showed no sign of willingness to reconcile. UN-backed Presidential Council (PC) 11 July moved out of naval base in Tripoli, took control of PM’s office and some PC-appointed ministers in Govt of National Accord (GNA) started working from their respective offices, but GNA’s authority remained weak. UN envoy Martin Kobler 16-18 July convened session of Libyan Political Dialogue in Tunis to overcome deadlock but meeting led to no major decision. Feud between rival Central Bank governors continued after east-based governor Ali Hibri throughout June distributed in east currency minted in Russia. PC 28 July signed agreement with Petroleum Facilities Guard armed group to restart exports from Ras Lanuf, al-Sidra and al-Zueitina oil terminals after eighteen months’ closure. Misratan-led forces loyal to PC 24 July said they took Islamic State bomb factory in Sirte and now controlled almost entire city. Libyan National Army loyal to General Khalifa Haftar throughout month continued to push back Shura Council coalition of Islamist militias for control of Benghazi in east. France 20 July acknowledged presence in Libya of its Special Forces following death of three French soldiers in helicopter crash in east 17 July, sparking protests in several cities in following days; GNA 20 July condemned French military involvement.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

Armed groups, half allied to UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA) and including Misratan forces that do not recognise it, early June pushed Islamic State (IS) affiliates from towns east and west of Sirte and reached city’s periphery. GNAallied forces 21 June said they had taken control of parts of strategically important neighbourhood 700, including broadcasting and electricity company HQ, but IS endJune still held ground in central Sirte. Misratan militia loyal to GNA late June clashed with locals in Garabulli, east of Tripoli. Double blast in arms depot there 21 June killed at least 30, mostly civilians; GNA’s Presidency Council (PC) same day pledged to investigate. Newly formed Benghazi Defence Forces (BDF) 18 June attacked LNA troops of anti-GNA General Haftar near Ajdabiya in east, claimed control of several LNA positions; at least three killed in fighting. LNA 20 and 21 June retaliated with airstrikes. Car bomb outside hospital in eastern Benghazi 24 June killed five, no group claimed responsibility. Pro-GNA Petroleum Facilities Guard militia 20 June said LNA strikes hit its training camp, promised “harsh response”. Two major armed groups in Benghazi 4 June announced support for GNA. Four cabinet ministers from east 30 June resigned from GNA without making reason public. UNSC 13 June extended mandate of political mission (UNSMIL) until 15 Dec.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

West-based pro-Govt of National Accord (GNA) and east-based anti-GNA factions mobilised troops to retake Sirte from Islamic State (IS); could lead to confrontation in Gulf of Sirte area over control of oil facilities. Over twenty FMs of countries supporting UN-backed Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) 16 May met in Vienna and reaffirmed support for PM-designate Serraj and Presidential Council (PC), encouraged him to continue establishing GNA, offered to consider exemptions to arms embargo for forces loyal to PC. Emboldened by international support Serraj 16 May requested eighteen ministers to begin work; Serraj named ministers in Feb but they had not begun work due to lack of endorsement by Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). 60 HoR members continued to demand revisions to LPA before voting on whether to endorse GNA. In east, animosity toward LPA and Serraj spiked, with support for General Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) increasing after its recent military advances in Benghazi and Derna. LNA-affiliated forces early May set up base in central Zella in preparation for offensive against IS stronghold of Sirte. Misratan pro-GNA forces mid-May clashed with IS-affiliates W Sirte, took back Abu Ghrein. Pro-GNA Petroleum Facilities Guard militia advanced westward toward Sirte, reportedly taking from IS Ben Jawad 30 May and Nawfiliyah 31 May.

Middle East & North Africa

Libya

UN-backed PM Serraj made some progress putting in place Govt of National Accord (GNA) after arriving in Tripoli 30 March with six Presidential Council (PC) members. Despite clashes between rival militia in Tripoli 30 and 31 March, several local armed groups declared loyalty to GNA, many municipalities in west and main financial institutions recognised Serraj’s authority. Pre-existing rival Tripoli-based PM Khalifa Ghweil reported 5 April to have handed over power, 6 April denied it. Several armed groups in Tripoli announced their opposition to Serraj’s rule starting 6 April. Tripoli-based Mufti al-Sadeq al-Ghariani continued to consider GNA illegitimate. Disaffection with GNA grew in east following Serraj’s co-option of members of Tripoli-based Libya Dawn military alliance, election 6 April of Abderrahman Swehli as head of new advisory State Council loyal to PC, and visits of several European FMs to express support. Members of eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR) opposed to GNA repeatedly delayed vote to endorse it. GNA 18 April took over two ministries in Tripoli; 25 April said it had taken control of five others, including foreign ministry. GNA 28 April announced plans to establish joint military command against Islamic State. In defiance of GNA, eastern-based authorities approved export of crude oil that left Tobruk by sea 26 April. Tripoli said sale illegal, UN added tanker to sanctions blacklist; Malta, where transfer to take place, blocked tanker’s arrival.

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