Authorities continued to silence govt critics, controversy over EU-Tunisia migration deal persisted, and President Saïed kept hard stance against austerity despite risk of economic collapse.

Judicial harassment of An-Nahda officials continued. Authorities 5 Sept arrested Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party’s interim president Mondher Ounissi and senior official Abdel Karim Harouni as part of investigation into alleged illegal financing from abroad. Security forces same day also arrested former PM and An-Nahda leader Hamadi Jebali at his home in city of Sousse, released him after 7-hour interrogation by judicial unit responsible for financial corruption cases.

EU-Tunisia migration control deal continued to face pushback. In heated debate at EU parliament, EU lawmakers 12 Sept discussed EU-Tunisia migration control deal signed in July; several MEPs accused EU Commission of failing to recognise mounting evidence of Tunisian authorities’ abusive treatment of sub-Saharan migrants, while others denounced deal’s failure to reduce migration flows. European Ombudsman 15 Sept announced asking EU Commission to clarify how it plans to ensure respect for human rights in migration-related actions resulting from agreement. Meanwhile, Tunis mid-Sept denied entry to EU parliament’s foreign affairs committee delegation; committee later “condemned” decision and demanded “detailed explanation”.

In other important developments. Amid persistent risk of economic collapse, Saïed 8 Sept called on Central Bank to purchase treasury bonds to help finance budget directly, in spite of Central Bank Governor Marouane Abassi’s previous warning that move could lead to higher inflation and greater pressure on banks’ liquidity. Saïed 15 Sept also pressed PM Ahmed Hanachi, who took office 1 Aug, to set up commissions in every ministry to review public sector hiring processes, in likely attempt to break political parties’ patronage networks.

Grain and bread shortages turned into crisis, and govt reached agreement with Libya to share responsibility for rescuing migrants expelled by Tunis to border zones.

Bread shortages turned into crisis. Govt 1 Aug issued decree banning privately-owned bakeries – employing around 20,000 people across country – from purchasing subsidised flour, blaming country’s grain and bread shortages on their selling of bread at higher price than govt-subsidised baguette. Move prompted most privately-owned bakeries to close doors, while around 200 bakery owners 7 Aug protested in front of trade ministry in Tunis. Trade ministry 19 Aug cancelled decree and agreed to restore subsidised flour supply to private bakeries.

President Saïed dismissed PM, showing continued rejection of IMF program. Saïed 1 Aug sacked PM Najla Bouden and appointed little-known former central bank executive Ahmed Hachani as replacement; move indicates Saïed’s continuous rejection of International Monetary Fund loan terms, including economic reform program that Bouden had tried to advance.

Tunisia and Libya agreed to rescue migrants stranded along border. UN Sec Gen António Guterres 1 Aug called on Tunis to stop expelling migrants into desert border areas and demanded “urgent relocation of those stranded along the border to safe locations”. Interior Minister Kamel Fekih 2 Aug conceded authorities have pushed back “small groups” of sub-Saharan migrants trying to enter Tunisia into desert no man’s land, but labelled claims of collective deportations and mistreatment of migrants as “false allegations”. Libyan authorities 8 Aug reported death of at least 27 sub-Saharan migrants in Tunisia-Libya border zone. Tunis and Tripoli next day reached agreement to share responsibility for providing shelter to at least 300 migrants stranded in shared border zone. Meanwhile, EU-Tunisia migration control deal faced pushback. In confidential note leaked early Aug, German Federal Foreign Office argued Germany and other EU member states were not properly consulted before EU Commission and Tunisia mid-July signed migration deal.

Security forces expelled Sub-Saharan migrants to desert areas while European Union reached migration control deal with Tunis.

Authorities expelled Sub-Saharan migrants to border areas amid spike in tensions. Clashes between Tunisians and Sub-Saharan migrants 3 July left one Tunisian man dead in coastal city of Sfax. As disturbances went on for several days, with local rights activists reporting beatings and arbitrary detentions of migrants by locals, authorities allegedly expelled around 1,200 sub-Saharans from Sfax and took them further south to remote areas near borders with Libya and Algeria. NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) 6 July said migrants left “with little food and no medical assistance” at Tunisia-Libya border. Paris-based weekly news magazine Jeune Afrique 12 July reported death of two migrants in Haouza area near Algeria, and Libyan authorities late July announced finding several bodies of migrants on border with Tunisia. UN experts 18 July urged authorities to “halt any further deportations”, saying “collective expulsions are prohibited under international law”, and reiterated concern about “reports of racist hate speech in the country”.

EU, Tunisia signed partnership largely focused on migration control. European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen and President Saïed 16 July signed partnership agreement, with European Union (EU) allocating €105mn to Tunisia to reinforce border management and speed up repatriation of irregular Tunisian migrants. HRW 19 July urged EU to suspend migration control funding to Tunisian security forces, citing latter’s “serious abuses” against Sub-Saharan migrants.

In other important developments. Tunis Court of Appeal 13 July released political opponents Chaïma Issa and Lazhar Akremi, who had been detained since Feb as part of crackdown on govt critics; next day banned them from traveling abroad and appearing in public following prosecutor’s office’s request. On two-year anniversary of Saïed’s power grab, over 300 people 25 July rallied in capital Tunis to denounce crackdown on fundamental freedoms and demand release of political prisoners.

Authorities continued to silence dissent, and European Union (EU) proposed financial assistance while urging Tunis to tighten border control.

Opposition protested continued harassment of govt critics. Islamist-inspired AnNahda party 12 June confirmed three imprisoned party leaders on hunger strike to protest “detention conditions and non-respect of fundamental rights”; one of them, Sahbi Atig, early June reportedly spent several days in intensive care due to deteriorating health. Hundreds of main opposition coalition National Salvation Front supporters 18 June protested in capital Tunis to demand release of President Saïed’s opponents, including coalition’s co-founder Jaouhar Ben Mbarek and AnNahda leader Rached Ghannouchi. Authorities 20 June detained prominent journalist Zied Heni near Tunis for allegedly “insulting the head of state”, released him on bail two days later.

EU offered financial aid to Tunis to boost economy, tighten border control. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen 11 June visited Tunis along with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and Dutch PM Mark Rutte, said EU may loan over €1bn to help Tunisia boost its battered economy and tighten border control. Ahead of meeting, Saïed 10 June said Tunisia would not accept to act as other countries’ border guard. German and French Interior Ministers Nancy Faeser and Gérald Darmanin 19 June met with Saïed in Tunis to discuss migration and security issues; France announced nearly €26mn in aid to combat irregular migration. Families of jailed judges and politicians late June accused EU of whitewashing Saïed’s authoritarianism in hope he can stem migration to Europe.

Anti-migrant sentiment persisted, notably in Sfax. In joint statement, human rights and other organisations 2 June condemned violence against sub-Saharan migrants and urged authorities to protect migrants and combat discrimination. Tensions continued to run high in coastal city of Sfax, a hub for migrant crossings to Europe. Notably, clashes 17-18 June reportedly broke out between Sfax residents and migrants, causing property damage, while hundreds 25 June demonstrated in Sfax against presence of irregular migrants.

Attack at Jewish pilgrimage site left several dead, while renewed violence erupted against sub-Saharan migrants; court sentenced most prominent opposition leader to prison.

Gunman killed four in attack on El Ghriba synagogue. National guard member 9 May opened fire upon worshippers attending annual Jewish pilgrimage at El Ghriba synagogue on Djerba island, killing two security personnel, two civilians and wounding a dozen others before security forces shot him dead; assailant earlier same day also killed colleague. Interior Minister Kamel Fekih 11 May said targeting of synagogue was premeditated, but referred to it as a “criminal” rather than terrorist act, meaning regular judiciary will carry out investigation.

Violence against migrants turned deadly. Armed individuals around 22 May attacked 19 sub-Saharan migrants near Sfax city, killing Beninese man and injuring at least four others; authorities in following days arrested three Tunisian nationals in relation to case and opened judicial enquiry. Over 20 rights organisations 29 May condemned “context of uninterrupted speeches of incitement, hatred and racism against migrants from sub-Saharan Africa” since President Saïed in Feb linked migrants to violence and criminality.

Judicial harassment of govt critics continued unabated. Authorities 6 May arrested Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party official Sahbi Atig, notably on allegations of money laundering and illegal possession of currency. Anti-terrorism court in capital Tunis 15 May sentenced Saïed’s most prominent critic, An-Nahda president and founder Rached Ghannouchi (who has been in preventive detention since April), to one year in prison on terrorism-related charges. Appeals court in Tunis 16 May increased prison sentence for journalist Khalifa Guesmi from one to five years on charges of disclosing national security information. Journalists 18 May held sit-in protest near Tunisian Journalists’ Union headquarters in Tunis to denounce “one of the heaviest sentences in the Tunisian media’s history” and “dramatic escalation in the persecution of the media and journalists”.

Authorities detained Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party leader Rached Ghannouchi, while President Saïed cast doubt on IMF bailout.

Amid opposition protests, authorities arrested most prominent opposition leader. Hundreds 9 April joined protest led by opposition coalition National Salvation Front in capital Tunis to demand release of over 20 opposition activists detained since Feb. Authorities 17 April arrested Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party leader and former parliament speaker, Rached Ghannouchi, charged him with “conspiracy against the state”; move came few days after Ghannouchi said efforts to “eradicate” Islamist opposition threatened to unleash civil war. Interior ministry 17 April also banned An-Nahda from holding meetings, and police in following days raided and shut down its headquarters in Tunis as well as several regional offices, raising spectre of formal ban on party. After U.S., EU, France, Türkiye and others condemned Ghannouchi’s detention, govt 19 April said “Tunisian justice will not yield to pressure”.

Saïed’s absence from public stage fuelled rumours of power vacuum. Saïed’s 12-day absence reportedly caused by minor heart attack late March-early April sparked concern about succession as 2022 constitution provides that head of constitutional council, which has never been installed, takes over presidency in case of permanent power vacuum.

Saïed cast doubt on International Monetary Fund (IMF) rescue package. In clearest rejection to date of terms of stalled $1.9bn bailout package, Saïed 6 April said he would not accept IMF’s “diktats”. EU Commission 27 April said EU financial assistance would be conditioned to deal with IMF.

Opposition protested President Saïed’s increasingly authoritarian drift, while violence against African migrants caused international outcry.

Saïed continued to assert control over public institutions. Saïed 8 March vowed to dissolve municipal councils elected in 2018 and replace them with “special councils” to be elected under new rules. New parliament 13 March held first session in absence of independent and foreign journalists, who were barred from attending, and elected former president of Bar Association Brahim Bouderbala as speaker; opposition coalition National Salvation Front (NSF) same day said it did not recognise legitimacy of parliament elected with 11.3% turnout. Interior Minister Taoufik Charfeddine 17 March resigned, citing family reasons; Saïed same day replaced him with hardline supporter, Tunis Governor Kamal Feki.

Opposition protested wave of arrests targeting govt critics. As part of campaign of arrests launched in Feb, authorities 2 March detained leader of Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party Habib Ellouze, allegedly on terrorism charges. Main workers’ union UGTT 4 March rallied thousands of protesters in capital Tunis to denounce politically motivated detentions and rising cost of living as well as to urge Saïed to accept UGTT’s dialogue initiative. NSF next day also protested wave of arrests and Saïed’s power grab; 27 March started open sit-in in Tunis to demand release of all political detainees.

International institutions condemned attacks on sub-Saharan Africans. After Saïed’s comments linking migration and crime in Feb triggered violent attacks on sub-Saharan African in Tunisia, several countries including Guinea, Mali and Côte d’Ivoire early March began repatriation of nationals who submitted voluntary return applications. World Bank early March suspended partnership framework with Tunisia for 2023-2027 “until further notice”, deeming Saïed’s remarks “completely unacceptable”, while U.S. State Dept 6 March expressed “deep concern” about reports of arbitrary arrests and violence against migrants.

President Saïed’s comments unleashed wave of violence against sub-Saharan Africans, and authorities carried out spectacular arrest campaign targeting critics and opposition figures.

Unprecedented violence targeted sub-Saharan Africans. Police mid-Feb arrested sub-Saharan African migrants across country, reportedly detaining around 300 people. President Saïed 21 Feb said influx of irregular sub-Saharan migrants aimed at changing country’s demographic make-up and must be stopped, linking migrants to violence and criminality. African Union 24 Feb expressed “deep shock and concern at the form and substance of the statement”. Incidents of mob violence against Black people in following days reportedly left dozens injured across country.

Authorities went on arrest spree of political and media figures. Security forces 11-13 Feb arrested influential businessman and former confidant of ousted President Ben Ali, Kamel Eltaïef; senior leaders of Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party, Abdelhamid Jlassi and Noureddine Bhiri; fierce opponent of Saïed, Khayam Turki; former Judges Taïeb Rached and Béchir Akremi; and general director of private radio station Mosaïque FM, Noureddine Boutar. Leaders of opposition coalition National Salvation Front, Issam Chebbi, Jahwar Ben M’Barek and Chaima Issa, also detained 22-23 Feb. Saïed 14 Feb accused those recently detained of conspiring against state security, saying “traitors who seek to fuel the social crisis” are responsible for rising prices of food commodities. Civil society and foreign partners condemned crackdown. Thousands 18 Feb joined main workers’ union UGTT for protests in eight cities across country, accusing Saïed of stifling basic freedoms including union rights. UN human rights office 14 Feb urged Tunis to “release immediately all those arbitrarily detained” including “in relation to the exercise of their rights to freedom of opinion or expression”.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) rescue program still under discussion. As unspecified G7 countries pledged to prevent Tunisian default, IMF continued to insist on steps needed to approach IMF’s Board for approval of four-year, $1.9bn loan program.

Second round of parliamentary polls recorded low turnout as judicial crackdown on opposition leaders and former political officials intensified, and country faced risk of payment default.

Opposition and civil society mobilised before second round of legislative elections. On 12th anniversary of former President Ben Ali’s departure, thousands 14 Jan rallied in capital Tunis against President Saïed’s power grab and deteriorating economic conditions. Powerful labour union UGTT 19 Jan announced it had started consultations with civil society groups including Tunisian Human Rights League, Bar Association and Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights to work on national initiative to “save the country from the crisis and put it back on democratic tracks”. Second round of parliamentary elections held 29 Jan with 11.3% turnout, as low as in first round of voting in Dec. Opposition coalition National Salvation Front leader Ahmed Nejib Chebbi same day urged united front against Saïed.

Legal repression of dissent intensified. Justice Minister Leila Jaffel early Jan filed complaint against opposition figure and lawyer Ayachi Hammami under Sept 2022 decree criminalising spreading “false information and rumours” online. Judiciary 9 Jan froze bank accounts of at least 100 people close to Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party on charges of money laundering. Tunis Court 17 Jan sentenced Saïed’s former chief of staff, Nadia Akacha, to 14 month-imprisonment in absentia for criticising Saïed in leaked audio recordings.

Country faced payment default. Ratings agency Moody’s 28 Jan cut Tunisia’s long-term foreign-currency and local-currency issuer ratings to Caa2 from Caa1 and changed outlook to negative. As shortages of many commodities, notably gasoline, medicines and daily products, continued, International Monetary Fund did not reschedule board meeting initially planned for Dec to approve new loan program for Tunisia, meaning country risks payment default in March or April 2023.

Record-low turnout in legislative elections increased President Saïed’s political isolation amid worsening economic and social situation.

Legislative elections saw record-low turnout, opposition urged Saïed to step down. Only 11,22% of voters cast ballots in legislative elections held 17 Dec. In response, main opposition coalition, National Salvation Front, 18 Dec said Saïed had no legitimacy and should quit office, called for mass protests to demand early presidential elections. Election commission in following days announced only 23 candidates had secured seat; remaining 131 seats to be decided in run-off elections expected early Feb.

UGTT hardened stance toward Saïed, IMF postponed decision on rescue package. In clearest challenge to Saïed to date, powerful labour union UGTT 3 Dec openly questioned electoral process, saying it had “no colour and taste” as result of new constitution; also denounced “lack of transparency” on reform program negotiated with International Monetary Fund (IMF). UGTT 26 Dec threatened street protests and sit-ins in rejection of 2023 austerity budget and 28 Dec announced two-day strike by transport workers in late Jan. In last-minute move, IMF postponed board meeting scheduled for 19 Dec on four-year $1.9bn rescue package for Tunisia, citing need to give govt more time to finalise reform program. Amid inflation nearing 10% and shortage of many food commodities, European Investment Bank around mid-Dec approved €220mn loan including €150mn in emergency food support. Algeria 1 Dec pledged $200mn low-interest loan and $100mn financial assistance to Tunisia.

In other important developments. Police around 19 Dec detained Islamist-inspired party An-Nahda VP, former PM Ali Larayedh, over terrorism allegations. An-Nahda immediately denounced political attack to cover “failure” of polls, and party supporters 23 Dec protested in front of justice ministry in capital Tunis to demand Larayedh’s release.