CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia

Ongoing pro- and anti-govt protests and sit-ins as political crisis remained unresolved. Early month saw exchange of fire with counter-terrorism units as they raided private homes. After extensive negotiations within governing Troika and with opposition, ruling Islamist An-Nahda party 22 Aug agreed to start national dialogue with opposition using framework proposed late-July by Tunisian General Labour Union, which entails forming new govt and expert constitutional committee to review constitution draft. However opposition 23 Aug rejected An-Nahda proposal, 24 Aug started week of protest called Rahil (“Departure”) aiming to dissolve govt and National Constituent Assembly, remove An-Nahda-appointed officials. Army 12 Aug launched airstrikes against Islamist militants in Mount Chaambi near Algerian border, after 1 soldier killed and 7 wounded in landmine explosion 4 Aug.

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia

Assassination of opposition MP Mohammed Brahmi by salafi in Tunis 25 July, reportedly using same gun that killed leading opposition figure in Feb, prompted widespread protests, increased political polarisation across country. 2 major opposition parties Nidaa Tounes and Popular Front called for dissolution of govt and National Constituent Assembly (NCA), on basis that ruling Islamist An-Nahda has failed to govern and maintain security and lacks legitimacy in light of failure to complete constitution-drafting process. 65 opposition members withdrew from NCA following assassination, demanding national salvation govt. Tunisian General Labour Union called for “competence govt” and establishment of expert constitutional committee, supported by other unions. Governing troika member Ettakatol 29 July joined calls for govt resignation. PM Larayedh 29 July declared govt will “continue to perform its duties”, urged adopting constitution by end Aug, finalising electoral law Oct to hold presidential elections on 17 Dec. One hour later army reported al-Qaeda-linked militants killed 9 soldiers near Mount Chaambi at Algerian border; emotions running high in wake of attack. Following Brahmi assassination, thousands of pro- and anti-govt protesters staging sit-ins in front of NCA, tensions increasing between camps. An-Nahda end-month said open to forming new govt. Discussions within governing troika and with opposition focused on form of govt: political led by An-Nahda or neutral (competence govt or national salvation govt); and whether to dissolve NCA, opposed by An-Nahda. Bomb exploded on road near Tunis 31 July.

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia

Widening rift between secularists and Islamists with several arrests of secular activists. Draft constitution completed 1 June, prompted further debate in National Constituent Assembly on role of Islam in Tunisian state andlong-term aims of coalition-leading Islamist party An-Nahda. Standoff between govt and Islamist groups including Ansar al-Sharia continued; operation against jihadi militants near Algerian border left 3 soldiers wounded 1 June, 3 soldiers killed 6 June (2 by mine explosions) in Chaambi  mountains. 

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia

Tensions between An-Nahda govt and Salafi group Ansar al-Sharia increased. Ansar al-Sharia 20 May staged banned rally; 1 killed, 15 wounded, 274 arrested in clashes with police in Tunis and Kairouan. Group’s annual meeting scheduled for 19 May banned by govt; PM Larayedh 19 May called group “illegal”, said group “involved in terrorism”. Troops deployed 1 May to Mount Chaambi region to hunt al-Qaeda-affiliated group believed responsible for increase in landmines in area; 12 security officers reportedly injured 6 May by landmines; pursuit of another jihadist group in the northern Kef region, near Algerian border, ongoing.

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia

Political tensions eased somewhat as 3-day “national dialogue” talks between ruling An-Nahda and centrist opposition forces 18 April produced deal on 29 Dec 2013 election date; talks boycotted by main trade union UGTT and left-wing parties. An-Nahda Shura Council 29 April agreed on mixed parliamentary/ presidential political system. Fears remain of increased political, economically-motivated violence ahead of polls amid frustrations over price increases, declining standards of living. Several days of violence mid-April in northern city Bizerte after soccer team barred from national championship, with riots taking on economic, anti-govt tone. Thousands protested in eastern city Sfax 21 April against An-Nahda govt, rising prices, alliance with Qatar. National Constituent Assembly (NCA) 23 April completed constitution draft. Some NCA members submitted motion to impeach President Marzouki 16 April, expected to survive challenge. Military court sentenced ousted president Ben Ali to life imprisonment in absentia. Govt and IMF finalised agreement on $1.75b loan. Govt released names of 5 suspects in Feb assassination of Chokri Belaid. Hundreds of Salafi youths reportedly arrested in crackdown on recruiting centres training them to fight with Syrian rebels.

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia

Political crisis partially attenuated as newly-appointed An-Nahda PM Ali Larayedh 8 Mar unveiled new govt; includes previous coalition partners Ettakatol and Congress for the Republic (CPR). Key ministries ceded to independents: career diplomat Othman Jarandi named FM, Lotfi Ben Jedou interior minister, Rachid Sabbagh defence minister, Nadhir Ben Ammou justice minister. 80 National Constituent Assembly representatives 15 March adopted end-of-April deadline for completing draft of new constitution, calling for presidential and legislative elections before end-2013. Social and political tensions remained high following Feb assassination of leading opposition figure Chokri Belaid; thousands demonstrated in Tunis 16 March, demanded end to An-Nahda govt. Concern continued to grow over deteriorating purchasing power and new round of economically-motivated self-immolation suicides.

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia

6 Feb assassination of popular opposition politician Chokri Belaïd, member of Popular Front, prompted worst political and constitutional crisis since revolution, deepening polarisation between Islamists and secularists. Belaïd killing triggered mass protests throughout country, with clashes with police, demolition of police stations and Islamist party HQs. Over 150,000 gathered for Belaïd’s funeral 8 Feb; largest trade union same day called general strike in protest at murder. PM Jebali 6 Feb announced dissolution of govt in response to killing, intention to establish interim cabinet of technocrats to replace Islamist-led coalition. Popular Front same day announced withdrawal from National Constituent Assembly; Secular Congress for the Republic, led by President Marzouki, 10 Feb announced withdrawal from coalition govt to support PM Jebali’s attempt to form govt of technocrats, but quickly backed out of move. Jebali 19 Feb resigned following collapse of his plan for apolitical technocrat cabinet due largely to strong opposition from his own An-Nahda party. An-Nahda 22 Feb chose Ali Larayedh as new PM, who president tasked with forming new govt; thousands protested choice. An-Nahda party chief Ghannouchi 27 Feb said will allow independents to take over key “sovereign” ministries in next govt in concession to opposition. Govt 21 Feb announced arrest of Belaïd assassination suspects, later said killer identified. Ghannouchi said An-Nahda not behind Belaïd assassination; thousands marched 9 and 16 Feb in Tunis in support of An-Nahda and Islamist-led govt.

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia

Socio-economic protests in Ben Guerdane turned violent mid-Jan as demonstrators set fire to police station, cars; police used teargas to disperse crowd. Police officers 16 Jan repelled stone-throwing protesters in Kef with tear gas. Roughly 8,000 protested outside Interior Ministry 14 Jan against Islamist-led govt on 2-year anniversary of former president Ben Ali’s overthrow. 2 Muslim shrines destroyed 10, 12 Jan in Tunis suburbs, attacks blamed on hardline Salafists. Authorities 17 Jan said “terrorist” group arrested, large arms cache seized in southern town Medenin. Govt 29 Jan sent special combat units to borders with Algeria, Libya to protect oil and gas installations against potential attacks from Islamist militants. Thousands of policemen protested 31 Jan demanding better pay, equipment, protection.

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia

Security forces in Siliana 1 Dec violently dispersed thousands protesting worsening socio-economic conditions; hundreds injured. Protesters 17 Dec hurled rocks at President Marzouki and parliamentary speaker Mustapha Ben Jaafar during revolution anniversary celebrations. Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT) 2 Dec suspended protests in Siliana after agreeing deal with govt; announced resumed protests 6 Dec following attack on Tunis office by Islamists; planned nationwide strike cancelled 12 Dec due to security concerns. Policeman killed 10 Dec during clashes with suspected Islamist fighters near border with Algeria. Interior Ministry 15 Dec announced break-up of al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb jihadi recruitment network. Sakhr El Materi, son-in-law of former president Ben Ali, arrested 14 Dec for embezzlement of state funds.

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia

At least 200 injured 27-30 Nov as protesters demanding jobs, economic development clashed with police in Siliana; army deployed 30 Nov to disperse protests. PM Jebali 30 Nov rejected calls for his resignation, accused opposition parties, unions of provoking the protests. President Marzouki same day asked PM Jebali to appoint new cabinet in response. Hundreds of Salafis demonstrated in Tunis 6 Nov against sweeping arrests. 2 Salafi activists died 16-17 Nov in hunger strike initiated following detention in connection with mid-Sept U.S. embassy attack. Imam involved in Oct attack on Manouba guard posts died 1 Nov from wounds sustained during clashes; new Manouba imam 1 Nov called for jihad against ruling An-Nahda in live TV broadcast; 1 killed and several injured as supporters clashed with police next day. Demonstrations continued in mining areas. Some 30 injured mid-month when clans clashed over agricultural land in Msaken in east.

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