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Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Polisario Front independence movement hardened stance against UN-led negotiations, further widening gap with Morocco. In letter to UN Sec-Gen Guterres made public 7 Dec, Polisario leader Brahim Ghali said movement would not participate in any UN-led peace process on Western Sahara, citing UN silence on Morocco’s “policy of terror against Sahrawi civilians in the occupied areas of Western Sahara”; move comes after Polisario late Nov-early Dec withdrew from roundtable negotiations hosted by Switzerland, a format preferred by Morocco that includes Algeria and Mauritania, said it would only accept AU-led bilateral talks. Meanwhile, repression against Sahrawi activists inside Morocco-controlled Western Sahara intensified. In run-up to 11 Dec Morocco-Algeria football match, Rabat imposed curfew and closed cafés and restaurants in Laayoune and other Western Sahara cities. After Algeria’s victory, spontaneous celebrations erupted in Laayoune with Sahrawi activists shouting pro-independence and anti-Moroccan slogans; Moroccan security forces reportedly arrested and beat several individuals.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Tensions escalated over reported deadly drone attacks by Moroccan forces on both Algerian and Western Saharan civilians. Algerian President Tebboune 3 Nov accused Moroccan forces of killing three Algerian truck drivers in Polisario Front independence movement-controlled Western Sahara 1 Nov; said possible drone attacks “will not go unpunished”. In official letters to international organisations including African Union and UN, Algiers 4 Nov condemned “terrorist act”, affirmed Algeria’s “willingness and ability to assume its responsibilities in protecting its citizens and their property in all circumstances”. Morocco did not comment. Polisario mid-Nov accused Moroccan military of killing 11 civilians in 14-15 Nov drone attacks in Miyek area, Polisario-controlled Western Sahara. Meanwhile, Polisario 1 Nov named Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic’s former PM Mohamed Wali Akeik, who in recent months has called for escalating offensive against Morocco, as Sahrawi People’s Liberation Army chief of staff; Akeik’s appointment came days after UN Security Council resolution renewing UN Mission (MINURSO)’s mandate failed to emphasise self-determination process. Responding to EU Court of Justice’s Sept ruling against inclusion of Western Sahara in EU-Morocco trade deals, Moroccan King Mohammed VI 5 Nov said Morocco refuses any “economic or commercial deal that excludes the Moroccan Sahara”.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Appointment of new UN envoy after two-year search signalled major step toward rekindling peace process. UN Sec-Gen Guterres 6 Oct appointed Italian-Swedish diplomat Staffan de Mistura as new personal envoy for Western Sahara; post had remained vacant since 2019 as Morocco or Polisario Front independence movement rejected a dozen other candidates. UN Security Council 29 Oct renewed mandate of UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) for one year, also expressed concern at breakdown of 1991 ceasefire and called for revival of UN-led negotiations. NGO Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project 27 Oct reported Moroccan forces mid-Oct launched strikes on Polisario Front positions in Tifariti and Mahbes areas. Amid persistent diplomatic tensions between Algeria and Morocco over Western Sahara, Algerian media outlets accused Rabat of involvement in 13 Oct bomb attack that killed Algerian soldier in Tlemcen province near border with Morocco.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Search for UN special envoy made progress, while tensions remained high between Rabat and Algiers. Morocco 15 Sept reportedly agreed to nomination of Italian-Swedish diplomat Staffan de Mistura as new UN Sec-Gen’s personal envoy for Western Sahara; Polisario Front independence movement in May said it would accept de Mistura’s nomination; position has remained vacant since 2019, hindering peace process. Algeria 22 Sept closed its airspace to all Moroccan planes, citing “provocations and hostile practices” by Rabat; relationship between Algiers and Rabat has long been strained, notably over Western Sahara conflict. Algerian FM Ramtane Lamamra and Moroccan FM Nasser Bourita 27 Sept took their dispute to UN General Assembly with former insisting on Sahrawi people’s “inalienable rights to self-determination” and latter condemning Algerian “interference”. EU Court of Justice 29 Sept annulled EU-Morocco agriculture and fishing trade deals that allow Morocco to export goods from Western Sahara.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Tensions persisted as Polisario Front independence movement contested Rabat’s economic and diplomatic moves on disputed territory. Polisario Front’s representative in Spain, Abdulah Arabi, 7 Aug protested airline Binter Canarias’ recent decision to resume flights to and from Morocco-controlled Western Sahara, arguing it constitutes “violation of international law” and reiterating “any economic activity in the territory requires the consent of the Sahrawi people”. Algeria 24 Aug cut diplomatic ties with Morocco, citing “hostile actions”; relationship between Algiers and Rabat has long been strained, notably over Western Sahara conflict (see Algeria). UN Sec-Gen Guterres 27 Aug appointed Russian diplomat Alexander Ivanko as head of UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO); search for UN Sec-Gen’s personal envoy for Western Sahara still ongoing. Sierra Leone 30 Aug opened consulate to Morocco in Dakhla city in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Diplomatic row between Morocco and Algeria over Western Sahara took another turn, and pressure rose on Morocco to stop crackdown on Sahrawi activists. In virtual Non-Aligned Movement meeting, Algerian FM Ramtane Lamamra 14 July called on UN to accelerate appointment of UN envoy for Western Sahara; in response, Morocco’s Permanent Representative to UN Omar Hilale same day called for Algeria’s Amazigh-speaking Kabylia region “to fully enjoy their right to self-determination”, prompting Algiers 18 July to recall its ambassador to Morocco (see Algeria, Morocco). UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Defenders Mary Lawlor 1 July urged Morocco to stop criminalising human rights activists, notably those working on issues related to Western Sahara, denounced “cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment and torture” of imprisoned activists; Lawlor expressed particular concern over cases of Sahrawi activists Naama Asfari and Khatri Dadda, who have been detained since 2010 and 2019, respectively, and Sultana Khaya, who has been under house arrest since Nov 2020. NGO Amnesty International 19 July said Morocco had intensified repression against pro-independence Sahrawi activists through “ill-treatment, arrests, detentions and harassment” since Nov 2020, reporting 22 cases of human rights violations by Moroccan security forces against Sahrawi activists and human rights defenders.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Polisario Front independence movement leader testified before Spanish court and left country for Algeria. Polisario Front leader Brahim Ghali 1 June testified before Spain’s High Court to answer accusations against him of alleged crimes, including torture and genocide; court allowed him to leave Spain where he had been treated for COVID-19 since April. Ghali overnight 1-2 June returned to Algeria and received President Tebboune’s visit in military hospital; in interview with French newspaper Le Point, Tebboune 3 June attacked Rabat and reiterated his full support to Polisario Front.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Tensions continued to run high between Polisario Front independence movement and Morocco. Polisario Front 20 May said it had consented to appointment of Italian-Swedish diplomat Staffan de Mistura as UN Sec-Gen Guterres’ new envoy to Western Sahara, accused Morocco of “blocking” Mistura’s appointment. Spanish govt 23 May said Polisario Front leader Brahim Ghali, who has been treated for COVID-19 in Spain since April, should answer legal charges before leaving country; Polisario Front 26 May said Ghali would answer allegations of torture and genocide before Spanish court on 1 June; Ghali’s presence in Spain fuelled tensions between Rabat and Madrid throughout month (see Morocco).

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Morocco reportedly used drone for first time on disputed territory, killing one Polisario Front independence movement leader. Moroccan forces 6 April reportedly killed Polisario gendarmerie chief Addah al-Bendir in suspected drone strike near Tifariti town inside UN buffer zone; strike, which could be first-ever use of drone by Moroccan army in Western Sahara, reportedly followed Polisario attempt to raid Moroccan positions along Morocco’s sand wall. French newspaper Le Figaro 15 April reported Polisario had turned down UN Sec-Gen Guterres’ proposal of former Portuguese FM Luis Amado as new UN envoy to Western Sahara; Amado is ninth candidate to be rejected by either Morocco or Polisario since former envoy Horst Köhler resigned in 2019. Local media late April reported Guterres had proposed Italian-Swedish diplomat Staffan de Mistura as next envoy. UN Security Council 21 April failed to adopt U.S.-drafted proposal on Western Sahara which warned of possible “escalation” in disputed territory and stressed need to speed up envoy appointment process. Senegal 5 April inaugurated consulate in Dakhla city in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara, thereby joining other African countries in supporting Morocco’s sovereignty claims over disputed territory.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Situation remained tense between Polisario Front independence movement and Moroccan authorities. Morocco’s security forces throughout month strove to close series of possible security breaches and reinforce its detection system along east-west sand berm that separates Moroccan-controlled Western Saharan territory from Polisario-controlled Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. AU Peace and Security Council meeting 9 March discussed Western Sahara for first time since 2019; in subsequent statement, AU 18 March vowed to reactivate its role in search for political solution to conflict, in reversal of its 2019 decision to limit AU’s role in Western Sahara to offering support for UN-led efforts. AU also urged UN Sec-Gen Guterres to request UN Legal Counsel to provide legal opinion on opening of consulates in Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 29 March urged Guterres to speed up appointment of personal envoy to Western Sahara. Morocco 1 March suspended diplomatic relations with Germany; move comes after Berlin in Dec 2020 demanded that UN Security Council discuss developments in Western Sahara in closed-door session.

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