Row with Niger prompted Chinese mediation; security front remained quiet as U.S. military official visited.

Chinese diplomatic efforts attempted to cool bilateral tensions with Niger. Amid continued dispute as Niger kept its land border closed – which has disrupted trade and led to increased food prices in Benin – govt 6 May prevented Nigerien authorities using Seme terminal port to export crude oil through March inaugurated 2,000km-long Niger-Benin pipeline and 8 May banned maize exports to neighbours, including Niger. Nigerien PM Ali Lamine Zeine 11 May announced border would remain closed for supposed security reasons, further inflaming tensions. China – whose state oil company owns shares in Niger’s oil – 15 May sent delegation to mediate with President Talon, who reversed decision to block crude oil exports and agreed to hold dialogue with Nigerien authorities on potential border reopening and repair of bilateral ties. Media, however, 23 May reported govt had blocked river crossing with Niger used for informal trade, while 27-28 May dialogue attempt in Nigerien capital Niamey faltered.

Jihadist threat remained latent in Northern departments. Head of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), Gen. Michael Langley, 1-3 May met Talon and military officials to discuss defence collaboration amid latent jihadist threat in north. Military 14 May reportedly killed eight militants during operation in Bogo-Bogo district, Alibori department, while no significant jihadist attack reported during month.

In another important development. Amid cost-of-living crisis, trade unions 1 May organised protest in country’s largest city Cotonou but police repressed demonstrations and arrested 72 people; opposition party Les Démocrates demanded their release.

Extreme levels of violence caused hundreds of civilian casualties as insecurity raged; military authorities extended rule by five years.

Extreme levels of violence against civilians continued, leaving hundreds dead. Armed forces 3-9 May allegedly killed over 250 civilians across country; in Sahel region, troops reportedly killed 150 civilians in four villages between Dori and Mansila towns in Yagha province, while in East region, military allegedly killed at least 100 others between towns of Fada N’Gourma and Tankoualou, Komandjari province. Al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) militants reportedly attacked civilians across Centre-North, North, East, and Centre-East regions; notably, JNIM militants 2 May killed twenty civilians in Tagalla village, Sanmatenga province (Centre-North). JNIM also clashed against govt forces and civilian auxiliaries (VDPs); militants 5 May attacked security forces and VDPs in Tapoa-Barrage village, Tapoa province (North), leading to deaths of three JNIM militants, two soldiers and eighteen civilians. In Centre-North’s Namentenga province JNIM 9 May reportedly killed seven VDPs in Bonam village and same day killed six soldiers and 33 VDPs in Boko village. 

Govt delayed transition by five years. Ahead of 1 July supposed end of military rule and after 25 May national conference on state of transition, military authorities announced extension of their rule until 2029, dealing heavy blow to hopes of democratic transition; many civil society and political groups boycotted conference. Earlier, thousands of supporters of military govt 11 May gathered in capital Ouagadougou to endorse an extension of transition and acknowledge “positive results” of regime.

Amid tensions with Côte d’Ivoire, govt strengthened ties with Sahel neighbours. Foreign Ministers of Alliance of Sahel States (AES) 17 May convened in Nigerien capital Niamey to finalise alliance documents; AES 20 May began joint military exercises alongside Chadian and Togolese troops in western Niger. Tensions with Côte d’Ivoire remained high amid series of border incidents; after reported VDP incursions into Ivorian territory throughout May, Ivorian forces 16 May allegedly deployed for one day to Helintira town, Djigoué department, South-West region. 

Security situation deteriorated amid series of deadly grenade attacks in Bujumbura that marked worst violence in city in recent years, as govt blamed rebel group.

Series of grenade attacks struck country’s largest city Bujumbura. Grenade 5 May detonated in Kamenge area in north of city, resulting in three deaths and eight injuries, although conflicting casualty reports emerged. Another attack struck city’s bus park 10 May, reportedly claiming six lives and leaving dozens wounded, but Interior Minister Pierre Nkurikiye refuted reports of any fatalities. Same day, attacker carried out grenade assault in Ngagara district, resulting in his injury and arrest. Nkurikiye 11 May accused RED-Tabara rebels, group reportedly backed by Rwanda, of orchestrating attacks with Rwandan and diaspora support; Rwanda 12 May issued statement dismissing involvement, while RED-Tabara also denied accusations of being responsible same day.

Security situation continued to deteriorate across country. Ruling party youth wing Imbonerakure member suspected of being responsible for 2 May killing of civilian in Mukoro hill, Gitega province. Arbitrary arrests continued as police, in collaboration with Imbonerakure, 16 May detained 44 individuals in Nyanza-lac commune, Makamba province, on charges of “rebellion”. Human rights group Ligue Iteka 2 May released monthly report detailing dozens of murders as well as case of torture of opposition National Congress for Freedom (CNL) member, with police, intelligence agents, soldiers and Imbonerakure suspected as main perpetrators.

In other important developments. Economy continued to plummet due to inflation, fuel and electricity shortages, exacerbated by delayed infrastructure projects and govt mismanagement, while food and transport costs rose. Meanwhile, concerns remained high over continued rise of waters of Lake Tanganyika, which has displaced hundreds of thousands in past seven months, flooded homes and destroyed crops, prompting April govt and UN appeals for support.

Anglophone region violence surged around National Day; election tensions continued to mount. 

Separatist tensions and violence escalated in North West (NW) and South West (SW). Ambazonia rebels and security forces heavily clashed in lead-up to 20 May National Day celebration, killing at least sixteen. Notably, govt forces 5 May targeted separatist strongholds in Ndop town (NW), eliminating prominent commander and two fighters. Separatists 10 May ambushed and killed six gendarmes near Mamfe town (SW) and 14 May clashed with soldiers in Bambui town (NW), killing at least four including two civilians. Govt forces 16 May killed four rebels in Kumbo town (NW), while separatist fighters same day killed two soldiers in Akwaya town (SW). On day of celebrations, suspected separatists 20 May assassinated mayor of Belo town (NW); separatist-imposed “ghost town” strikes 17-20 May paralysed business and movement in NW and SW. Meanwhile, former spokesperson of Ambazonia Defence Forces (ADF) armed group, alias “Capo Daniel”, 4 May urged ceasefire and direct negotiations with Yaoundé; govt dismissed move while ADF denounced him as “traitor”.

Far North unrest continued. Boko Haram attacks persisted as Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) continued “Operation Lake Sanity II”, launched in April to reclaim territory. Fishermen 11-12 May clashed with JAS Bakura faction in three villages around Lake Chad, seizing guns and three motorbikes, casualties unknown. Jihadist militants 12 May carried out multiple attacks, including cattle rustling and abduction of at least two women in Djibrili village, Mayo-Tsanaga division. Meanwhile, govt forces 14 May announced rescue of 300 Boko Haram captives after week-long operation along northern border with Nigeria.

Tensions continued to mount in run-up to 2025 elections. Concerns over govt manipulation of election process grew as senior govt official 2 May cautioned electoral commission against inciting public voting drive amid calls from opposition politicians for mass registration to challenge President Biya; ruling party mayor 4 May halted registration process in a district of Yaoundé reportedly attended overwhelmingly by opposition supporters. Meanwhile, protests early May erupted in West region over alleged registration irregularities by ruling party, while pro-Biya demonstrators in South region 5 May blocked roads to hinder opposition activity.

Transitional justice efforts faced challenges as court issued arrest warrant for former president but govt dissolved reconciliation commission; insecurity persisted. 

Authorities’ transitional justice record remained mixed. President Touadéra 8 May ordered dissolution of Truth, Justice, Reparation and Reconciliation Commission (CVJRR), created as part of 2019 peace agreement between govt and fourteen armed groups; presidential decree remained unpublished so uncertainty persisted over whether move only removes current office holders or dismantles institution entirely. Communication Minister 14 May attributed dissolution to governance, operational and financial issues within CVJRR. Earlier, UN-backed Special Criminal Court 30 April issued warrant for former President Bozizé’s arrest for allegedly ordering crimes against humanity committed Feb 2009-March 2013 by army and presidential guard; NGO Human Rights Watch 3 May said move provided chance for Bozizé to “face justice” but presidential adviser Fidèle Gouandjika same day suggested warrant aims to incite ethnic tensions. President Umaro Embaló Sissoco of Guinea-Bissau, where Bozizé is in exile, 1 May said he would not extradite former president, citing lack of legal framework.

Climate of insecurity persisted against backdrop of intercommunal tensions. Intercommunal and rebel violence continued in hinterland, notably in south west. Suspected armed herders 5 May destroyed two churches in Boganangone town, Lobaye prefecture, resulting in unconfirmed number of casualties. Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) fighters 12 May attacked mining site in Gaga town, Ombella-M’Poko prefecture, killing four Chinese miners and injuring seven. Meanwhile, 100 ethnic Azandé fighters officially integrated into army 1 May after intensive training by Russian paramilitary Africa Corps, formerly Wagner Group, in Obo town, Haut-Mbomou prefecture; despite govt portraying step as improving army integration, militants reaffirmed tribal allegiance by calling themselves “Azandé Wagner”, while fears grew over group’s escalating tensions with Fulani-led armed group Union for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC) in south east. U.S. 30 May imposed sanctions on two companies based in country for supporting “malign activities” of Russian paramilitaries. Meanwhile, risk of unrest grew in capital Bangui as security forces continued search operations in Muslim neighbourhood, which have resulted in arbitrary arrests since April.

President Déby secured election win amid reports of voting irregularities and repression of opposition, tightening grip on power.

Déby clinched victory, cemented his control despite opposition challenges. Following 5-6 May presidential polls, electoral authority 9 May declared Déby winner with 61% of vote, marking end of transition period; rivals including former PM Padacké and incumbent PM Masra initially contested results, filing unsuccessful appeals with Constitutional Court which 16 May certified results. Déby 17 May rejected calls for national unity govt, further isolating opposition, as Masra same day acknowledged defeat and 22 May resigned as PM; Déby inaugurated next day and appointed Allamaye Halina as PM; Halina 27 May announced new govt formed of pro-Déby ministers and no opposition members. 

International actors welcomed vote amid reports of irregularities and repression. As military deployed significant presence around polling stations and in major cities, security forces 6 May detained 79 Masra supporters over alleged fraud. Reports of electoral irregularities emerged with some polling stations inadequately equipped or opening late while opposition observers reported under-age voting and regime supporters confiscating ballot boxes. Meanwhile, independent election observers faced restrictions, with civil society 5 May and EU 7 May condemning denial of access for 2,900 trained observers. Following vote, canton chief and aide 10 May assaulted opposition activist in Koumra town, while opposition journalist same day reported intimidation from armed men in capital N’Djamena and later went into hiding. NGO Human Rights Watch 13 May expressed concerns over political repression and govt’s consolidation of power. International actors largely welcomed Déby’s election, however. Regional body Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) 12 May congratulated Déby, as did French President Emmanuel Macron 17 May. U.S. 16 May acknowledged transition milestone but highlighted “troubling shortcomings”. Amid growing ties with Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin 14 May sent congratulatory message.

Banditry and herder-farmer-related insecurity persisted. Farmer and herder groups 9 May clashed in Lac-Iro area of Moyen-Chari region, killing at least five civilians and injuring others, after alleged cattle raid by herders. Governor of Ennedi-East region 17 May announced arrest of eight bandits on murder charges in Amdjarass city on Libyan border.

Political jostling continued ahead of 2025 presidential election; govt further deepened military ties with U.S.

Political focus remained on next year’s vote. At party convention in Abidjan city, opposition African People’s Party-Côte d’Ivoire (PPA-CI) 10 May officially declared former President Gbagbo as candidate for 2025 presidency polls; Gbagbo’s candidacy, however, faces major obstacles including his ineligibility due to 2018 criminal conviction for looting Central Bank of West African States during 2010-2011 post-electoral crisis and competition from several parties run by previous allies, including his former wife, that will be chasing similar parts of electorate. Meanwhile, former PM Soro – in exile since 2019 and sentenced to life imprisonment in absentia in 2021 for undermining national security – 8 May said he would continue dialogue with Ouattara on national reconciliation, amid his attempts to return from exile. 

Discussion with Washington over expanded security ties continued. After U.S. delegation led by head of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), Gen. Michael Langley, late April visited Ouattara to discuss establishment of American military base, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana 13-24 May jointly hosted annual AFRICOM-led special operations exercise featuring dozens of countries. 

In other important international developments. Relations with Senegal boosted by 7 May visit of new Senegalese President Faye. Tensions with Burkina Faso, however, remained high following series of incidents along border with reports of reciprocal security forces’ provocations during May.

Security and humanitarian situation worsened in east after deadly bombing of displacement camp as rebels took more territory; security forces thwarted apparent coup attempt. 

M23 crisis escalated following attack on IDP sites near North Kivu capital Goma. Rockets allegedly fired from rebel positions west of Goma 3 May struck Mugunga and Lac Vert displacement camps, resulting in 35 deaths, deadliest M23-related attack since Nov 2022. Govt and U.S. accused Rwanda, prompting Kigali to vehemently deny involvement. Meanwhile, M23 continued advance following late April capture of strategic mining town Rubaya. Violence also threatened South Kivu province, with 7 May M23-attributed rocket attack in Kisongati village, resulting in seven fatalities and six injuries; rebels may in June pose threat to pivotal town of Minova, possibly opening route to advance further into South Kivu. Southern African regional bloc (SADC) mission SAMIDRC 5 May announced plans to offensively counter M23 rebellion but faced persistent financial challenges.

Diaspora member orchestrated unsuccessful apparent coup in capital Kinshasa. Army 19 May claimed to have foiled coup attempt led by Christian Malanga – American resident and promoter of New Zaire movement – in Kinshasa’s Gombe district, resulting in death of Malanga, one other assailant and two police officers. Gunmen targeted largely symbolic locations – including residences of top officials and empty state house – prompting widespread questions about security protocols and motives of attack.

Armed group violence plagued Ituri and North Kivu. In North Kivu, seven suspected victims of Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels found 3 May along Mangina-Mantumbi road in Beni-Mbau sector. In Ituri, ADF 6 May killed three in Kianangazi village, Irumu territory, abducting one child. Subsequent attacks 9, 12 and 13 May in both provinces resulted in further casualties and abductions, raising doubts about efficacy of joint Congolese-Ugandan anti-ADF operations. 

Ruling party faced discord over formation of new administration. President Tshisekedi 29 May announced new govt – rewarding loyalists and campaign organisers with top jobs while axing foreign and defence ministers – following months of intense haggling amongst his political coalition. Meanwhile, opposition warned against potential power grabs amid concerns over Tshisekedi’s 3 May proposal to overhaul constitution.

Ethiopia’s efforts to settle Tigray-Amhara territorial dispute continued to fuel security concerns in Asmara.

Ethiopia-Eritrea relations remained riddled with tensions. Amid concern in Asmara that Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) may return to administer Western Tigray Zone in Ethiopia, Tigray region’s interim VP Tadesse Worede 2 May said federal efforts to dissolve local Amhara administrations and resettle displaced persons in disputed areas – part of Addis Ababa’s plan to settle Tigray-Amhara territorial dispute – would be completed by late June. Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party and TPLF 15 May convened third round of party-to-party political dialogue in Tigray’s capital Mekelle as part of efforts to address political issues underlying conflict in Tigray, deepening Asmara’s fears that Ethiopia’s PM Abiy may be consolidating alliance with TPLF. 

U.S. bodies criticised Eritrea’s human rights record. Embassy of Eritrea to U.S. 2 May dismissed as “fallacious” U.S. State Department’s 2023 Human Rights Report published late April, which documented “significant human rights issues” in Eritrea. U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom 13 May said religious freedom conditions remain “extremely poor” in Eritrea, urged U.S. President Biden to pressure Asmara to end persecution of unregistered religious communities and release religious prisoners.

In another important development. Eritrea 24 May celebrated 33 years of independence with official gathering in capital Asmara. Anniversary gave rise to scuffles between pro-regime and anti-regime Eritreans living abroad, leaving one killed and several wounded 27 May in Israel’s Tel Aviv city.

Govt’s plan to address Tigray-Amhara territorial dispute continued to fuel tensions in Western Tigray; federal forces pursued efforts to stem insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia regions.

Tensions lingered over Tigray-Amhara territorial dispute in Western Tigray. Implementation of Addis Ababa’s plan to address Tigray-Amhara territorial dispute continued, with Tigray’s interim VP Tadesse Worede 2 May saying dissolution of local Amhara administrations and resettlement of displaced Tigrayans in Southern and Western zones would be completed by late June. Plan fuelled more violence, however; notably, skirmishes 3 May broke out between Ethiopian military and Amhara nationalist militias known as Fano on outskirts of Maksegno Gebeya town in Western Tigray Zone after Fano militants previous day briefly entered town. Tigray’s interim President Getachew Reda 24 May announced withdrawal of Tigray’s forces from two villages near Alamata town (Southern Tigray Zone), in move designed to ease tensions with Amhara administrations and facilitate return of Tigrayans.

Fighting continued between federal forces and Fano militias in Amhara. After easing of hostilities early May between federal forces and Fano militias, fighting picked up toward end of month, with clashes reported in North Shewa, East Gojjam, West Gojjam, North Gojjam, North Gondar, South Wollo and North Wollo zones. PM Abiy 12 May visited Amhara capital Bahir Dar, called on insurgents to lay down arms and reintegrate into civilian life. Adding to region’s instability, thousands of Sudanese refugees late April-early May fled Kumer and Awlala camps in West Gondar Zone after kidnappings for ransom and armed robberies late April left at least one person injured.

Army intensified counter-insurgency operations in Oromia. Federal forces conducted operations against Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in East Wollega, West Wollega, Horo Guduru Wollega, West Shewa, Arsi, West Arsi and East Borena zones. Notably, regional broadcaster 2 May reported joint operation by federal and regional security forces in East Borena; Addis Ababa claimed to have inflicted heavy OLA casualties. In rare visit to rebel stronghold of western Oromia, PM Abiy 8 May attended pro-govt rally in Nekemte town, East Wollega, in attempt to shore up Oromo support amid deepening unpopularity and OLA insurgency.