Kenya hosted talks between holdout opposition groups and govt, intercommunal violence remained rampant, and disruption of oil exports deepened economic crisis. 

Govt and holdout opposition groups held peace talks in Kenya. High-level mediation 9 May started in Kenyan capital Nairobi, bringing together govt and some opposition groups that did not sign 2018 peace accord, including South Sudan United Front, Real-Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and South Sudan People’s Movement/Army (SSPM/A); National Salvation Front led by Thomas Cirillo and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition Kitwang led by Simon Gatwech did not participate, dimming hopes for wider deal. SSPM/A leader Stephen Buay 20 May accused govt of sending agents to Nairobi to target him and threatened to withdraw from talks. Kenyan authorities same day launched investigation into claims; in the meantime, Buay agreed to continue participating.

Communal violence persisted in several regions. Notably, in Jonglei region alleged Murle ambush 9 May killed three in Duk county; suspected armed Lou Nuer youth from Jonglei 12 May reportedly raided villages in Likuangole county, Greater Pibor Administrative Area, abducting nine people and raiding cattle. Authorities from Abyei area and Warrap State early May traded blame for deadly violence and cattle raids. Fighting between Balanda and Azande in Tombura county, Western Equatoria, reportedly displaced over 10,000 by 2 May. 

Disruption of oil exports fuelled fiscal crisis. Breakdown of main oil pipeline continued to threaten currency collapse and fuel spike in food costs, raising risk of renewed instability and violence. Central Bank governor 3 May said oil reserves are “at historically low levels”, affecting foreign currency reserves. Official 28 May claimed operations would resume imminently, though acknowledged oil had gelled along pipeline; industry experts maintained that repairs necessary to restart exports would take at least months to complete.

Concerns over election preparedness persisted. U.S. 9 May warned it would not support electoral process without urgent govt action to implement 2018 peace agreement. Body tasked with tracking implementation of agreement 23 May said there was “no evidence of sufficient preparation” for elections. Meanwhile, UN Security Council 30 May renewed sanctions on South Sudan for one year, including arms embargo, travel bans and asset freezes.

Full-scale conflict pitting Sudanese army (SAF) and allied Darfuri armed groups against Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted in North Darfur’s capital El-Fasher, threatening to inflame intercommunal conflict further in coming weeks.

Fighting broke out in El-Fasher. Clashes 10 May erupted between SAF in alliance with Darfuri armed groups and RSF in El-Fasher, killing and displacing thousands. SAF and armed groups held western and central neighbourhoods, and RSF controlled north and east sectors while besieging city. Outside El-Fasher, RSF-affiliated militias attacked non-Arab villages, while SAF airstrikes targeted RSF positions but also communities allegedly supporting paramilitary, including mostly Arab El-Zurug and Kutum villages; attacks threaten to aggravate intercommunal conflict in coming weeks. UN special adviser on the prevention of genocide 21 May warned “the risk of genocide exists” and is “growing”. Fighting obstructed aid deliveries as World Food Programme 3 May warned of “widespread starvation and death”.

Hostilities escalated across several other states without decisive gains. SAF-RSF clashes expanded from flashpoints including Babanussa town, West Kordofan state, North Kordofan’s capital El-Obeid, and Gezira state capital Wad Madani, to multiple towns and rural villages, increasing displacement and civilian casualties; RSF 19 May announced seizure of Um Rawaba area, North Kordofan. SAF continued offensives in capital Khartoum and sister cities Omdurman and Bahri, particularly in Bahri’s Jiali oil refinery area, but failed to secure clear-cut victory. Parties continued mobilising local communities, exacerbating violence and complicating future peacemaking efforts. In and beyond Darfur, restrictions on free movement, arbitrary killings, arrests and lootings by both sides and their supporters underscored growing lawlessness and impunity across country.

Several political coalitions called for transfer of power to civilians. SAF-aligned political coalition “National Forces Coordination”, which includes over 40 political parties, armed groups, community leaders and civil society organisations, 8 May endorsed political charter proposing three-year transitional govt with joint military-civilian Sovereign Council and transitional legislative council. Anti-war coalition Tagadum, which claims neutrality between warring parties, 26 May launched founding conference of expanded coalition in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, attended by over 600 key stakeholders; conference led to adoption of Tagadum’s political position, new leadership structure and basic principles for political process.

Ruling party won overwhelming majority in April elections and new constitution expected to extend President Gnassingbé’s decades-long rule came into effect.

Following 29 April legislative and regional votes, provisional results released 4 May showed ruling Union for the Republic party won 108 out of 113 parliamentary seats and 137 of 179 council seats, which Constitutional Court 13 May confirmed. Opposition parties expressed doubts about results but international actors including African Union and West African regional bloc ECOWAS commended electoral process. Meanwhile, President Gnassingbé 6 May signed new constitution into effect, marking beginning of Fifth Republic and transition from presidential to parliamentary system, amid persistent concerns president would use new structure to extend stay in power.

Political tensions grew amid threats of further strikes, while govt engaged with DR Congo (DRC) on anti-militant cooperation.

Threats of strikes continued amid persistent fiscal policy discontent. Fear of further industrial action persisted, as business groups 8 May threatened two-month long strike from 20 June after failed talks with President Museveni, spurred by discontent over fiscal and tax policies and govt’s promotion of electronic tax payments. Parliament 16 May approved new taxes on fuel and construction materials despite protests, potentially leading to price increases. Meanwhile, Museveni same day signed deal with Kenya to import refined petroleum directly, aiming to offset impact of fuel tax hikes.

Army chief scrutinised operations against Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Newly appointed head of army and Museveni’s son Lt-Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba 6 May engaged in talks with Congolese military leadership to assess progress in joint operations against Islamic State-affiliated ADF rebels in DRC; joint force 18 May captured prominent ADF commander skilled in explosives in Ituri province in eastern DRC. Security forces 4 May said they had discovered four suspected ADF bombs in capital Kampala.

Disputes within opposition political parties escalated. Former opposition leader Mathias Mpuuga faced continued censure from National Unity Platform (NUP) party for accepting financial parliamentary awards, sparking tensions with party leader Robert Kyagulanyi, alias ‘Bobi Wine’. Similarly, Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) appeared set for split, with former presidential candidate Kizza Besigye poised to lead breakaway faction over alleged ties between current leadership and Museveni. 

In other important developments. Opposition parties 2 May welcomed UK late April announcement of corruption-related sanctions on three politicians, including Parliament Speaker Anita Among, as potential deterrent against mismanagement of public resources, while govt expressed surprise and promised both investigation and examination of legality of sanctions. Meanwhile, U.S. 30 May also announced corruption-related sanctions on trio and one other politician, alongside sanctioning former deputy army chief for alleged “gross violations of human rights” including extrajudicial killings by military.

Ruling party supporters disrupted public hearings on controversial NGO bill while police cracked down on informal money traders amid implementation of new currency.

Govt-linked groups disturbed public consultations on contentious law. Govt 13-17 May held public hearings on controversial proposed Private Voluntary Organisations Amendment Bill that critics argue will be used to control civil society organisations. Suspected ruling party ZANU-PF supporters disrupted hearings in cities of Chinhoyi, Gweru, capital Harare and Masvingo; participants 16 May fled consultation in Masvingo due to fight between ZANU-PF supporters and residents that reportedly left several people injured. 

Govt targeted dissenters of new currency. Govt cracked down on informal money traders in effort to enforce acceptance of new Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency – inaugurated in April and facing struggles to win consumer confidence – as police 15 May announced they had arrested 224 alleged illegal currency traders and frozen 90 bank accounts since ZiG introduced; govt 9 May announced it will levy $14,800 fines on businesses who refuse to use official exchange rate while Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube 14 May urged war veterans in Bulawayo city to “protect” ZiG by “fighting” informal money traders. Meanwhile, police 13 May arrested Neville Mutsvanga, son of ZANU-PF spokesperson Chris Mutsvangwa, on charges of illegally dealing in foreign currency, in case reportedly linked to suspected ZANU-PF factional battle between President Mnangagwa and VP Chiwenga. 

In another important development. Harare court 21 May ordered army chief Lt. Gen. Sanyatwe and Defence Minister Oppah Muchinguri to pay $29,000 compensation to protester who was attacked and shot during 2019 demonstrations, when authorities deployed military to crush countrywide anti-govt protests sparked by increase in fuel prices. 

Afghanistan and Pakistan engaged in sporadic clashes along disputed border, killing two soldiers, as Islamic State continued attacks and thousands in north east protested Taliban’s poppy eradication campaign.

Deadly border hostilities resumed between Pakistan and Taliban forces. Pakistani aircraft 10 May conducted strikes inside Afghanistan, killing at least four suspected Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants. As Pakistani forces 13 May tried to fortify positions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Kurram district, clashes erupted with Taliban forces, which lasted six days and killed at least one Pakistani soldier and Taliban forces member; sides 18 May agreed to ceasefire reportedly negotiated by tribal elders. Notably, Taliban rocket 15 May struck Pakistani border post, causing aforementioned fatality. Tensions with Afghanistan could escalate further if another major militant attack within Pakistan is traced back to Afghan havens (see Pakistan).

Islamic State targeted Taliban and foreigners. Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) 8 May claimed bomb attack in Faizabad city, Badakhshan province (north east). ISKP gunman 18 May shot at two buses carrying foreign tourists in Bamiyan province (centre), killing three Spanish nationals and injuring others. ISKP militants 20 May hurled grenade at bus carrying Taliban members in Kandahar (south), killing at least four. 

Thousands protested in north east against Taliban. In Badakhshan province, local residents early May staged protests against Taliban’s poppy eradication campaign in province. Taliban security forces 3-13 May killed several, prompting thousands in region, namely Argo and Darayim districts, to hold protests to demand halt to eradication effort, livelihood support for poppy farmers and compensation for eradicated crops as well as slain protestors; senior Taliban delegation visited region, reportedly agreeing to compensate families of victims but insisting eradication efforts will persist unabated. Authorities mid-May deployed reinforcements to region and resumed destruction of opium fields.

Taliban continued to clamp down on independent media. Taliban authorities 8 May attempted to restrict reporting by Afghanistan International – overseas-based media channel that emerged immediately after Taliban’s takeover and became most-viewed media outlet inside Afghanistan – by ordering Afghan journalists to stop all forms of collaboration with outlet. 

Conflict in Myanmar’s Rakhine state fuelled recruitment drive by Rohingya armed groups in Bangladesh’s refugee camps, raising prospect of greater spillover to come. 

War in Myanmar reverberated in Bangladesh’s refugee camps. In Myanmar, Arakan Army (AA) continued advance in northern Rakhine state after months-long campaign against regime and allegations of abuses against Rohingya community, including extrajudicial killings, torching villages and forced relocations (see Myanmar). In response, Rohingya armed groups – notably Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) – stepped up mostly forced recruitment in refugee camps in Bangladesh, including potentially several thousand young men and children as young as 14, with some refugees reportedly transferred to Myanmar military for training. Forced recruitment triggered wave of panic across camps; since 17 May, refugees staged nightly gatherings to oppose recruitment, in some cases beating RSO members. Fighting in Rakhine likely to escalate, forcing larger numbers of Rohingya across border or sparking wider conflict between AA and Rohingya armed groups as latter build up their forces further to curtail AA’s advance. Meanwhile, turf war in refugee camps between RSO and rival Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) resurged, with five killings reported mid-May. 

Insecurity persisted in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) in south east. Security forces continued operations targeting Kuki-Chin National Front (KNF) – which claims to represent six Kuki-Chin subgroups, largest of which is Bawm. Security forces 17 May announced detention of chief coordinator of KNF’s women’s wing in Bandarban’s Sadar district. Shootout 23 May killed two KNF members in Sadar. Human rights group Amnesty International 22 May said over 100 Bawm had been arbitrarily detained amid anti-KNF crackdown. PM Sheikh Hasina 23 May claimed there was international conspiracy to establish “Christian state” in CHT. Govt official in India’s Mizoram state mid-May said 127 Bangladeshis fled into Mizoram in previous week due to anti-KNF operation; state now hosts 1,368 refugees from CHT. 

Opposition boycotted local polls. Authorities 8 May held first phase of local polls for districts known as upazila parishad, which saw voter turnout of 36% – lowest since voting was introduced in 2009; opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party boycotted vote and claimed people had rejected election.

China maintained naval activity in East China Sea and held high-level talks with Tokyo, while Japan sought to strengthen defence ties with Western partners. 

Beijing continued maritime presence. As of 27 May, Japan reported 104 Chinese vessels in Japan’s contiguous zone, while Japanese coast guard 8 May detected four Chinese vessels in Japan’s territorial waters off disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands; one vessel was reportedly armed with automatic cannon. Japan coast guard 19-20 May detected two Chinese vessels in Japan’s territorial waters and 24 May detected four Chinese vessels in Japan’s territorial waters. Ten-month impasse persisted over China’s deployment of buoy in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone in East China Sea, as Tokyo demands its removal. Meanwhile, Japan, U.S. and New Zealand 11-13 May conducted trilateral maritime exercise in East China Sea. 

Tokyo and Beijing held high-level talks. Senior Chinese diplomat Liu Jianchao and Japanese PM Fumio Kishida 29 May met in Japanese capital Tokyo, where pair discussed bilateral relations and issues such as Taiwan and discharge from Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant into sea. Earlier, Tokyo 22 May lodged protest with China after Chinese ambassador to Japan reportedly warned that Japanese people would be dragged into fire if they supported Taiwan independence (see Taiwan Strait). 

Japan sought enhanced defence cooperation with Western partners. Defence ministers of Japan, Philippines, U.S. and Australia 2 May met in U.S. to deepen cooperation; officials confirmed Japan will work closely with U.S. and Australia to introduce counter-strike capabilities, while Japan and U.S. cabinet ministers will start talks on Japan’s “extended deterrence” capabilities, including nuclear weapons. Japan and France 3 May commenced talks on new security agreement on reciprocal access. U.S. senators 8 May introduced bipartisan bill requiring “AUKUS” – trilateral security partnership between Australia, UK and U.S. – officials to engage Japan on its potential inclusion under second pillar for advanced technology projects; China in April expressed “grave concern” over alliance’s expansion. 

Ethnic conflict in Manipur in north east marked first anniversary, national elections entered final phases amid suspicions of voting irregularities, and security forces continued deadly anti-Maoist operations.

In Manipur, ethnic conflict entered second year amid ongoing violence. Conflict in Manipur 3 May reached one-year mark with 67,000 displaced in 2023 and over 220 killed; Kuki and Meitei communities show no sign of compromise and hill areas remain beyond state govt’s control. In Kangkokpi district, leader of United Kuki National Army 5 May was reportedly killed by bodyguard. In Bishnupur district, security forces 17 May rescued 75 Meitei women from Kuki militants. In Imphal West district, unidentified gunmen 18 May killed labourer. In sign of conflict spilling across regional borders, The Hindu 14 May reported National Agency Investigation had charged “China-Myanmar module” of militant group National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) – presently in peace talks with New Delhi – of facilitating infiltration of Meitei militants into Manipur to “destabilise state”; NSCN-IM rejected allegations and accused Indian forces of supporting Kuki insurgents in Myanmar to target Meitei rebels.

Elections neared completion. Ahead of completion of seven phases of national elections on 1 June, media in May continued to report allegations of voter exclusion of Muslims. Election Commission’s decision not to share polling in real time fuelled suspicion of potential voting manipulation in favour of ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Meanwhile, BJP continued polarising and communal-based campaign speech: notably, Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh 18 May declared Pakistan-administered Kashmir would become part of India within six months of BJP’s next term.

Anti-Maoist security operations continued. In Chhattisgarh state (centre), security forces 10 May killed twelve Maoists in Bijapur district and 23 May killed seven Maoists on border of Narayanpur and Bijapur districts; 34 Maoists 25 May surrendered in Bijapur. In Maharashtra state (west), security forces 13 May killed three Maoists in Gadchiroli district. 

Relations with China remained tense. China’s new ambassador 10 May arrived in New Delhi, declaring “our two countries are each other’s development opportunities and not threats”. FM S. Jaishanskar 14 May described China’s deployment of forces at Line of Actual Control as “very abnormal”.

Militant attacks and security operations increased in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), while authorities held first ballots in region since 2019 as part of national elections. 

Militant attacks and security operations intensified after winter lull. In Jammu division, security forces 1 May killed alleged infiltrator from Pakistan in Samba district; militants 4 May attacked Air Force convoy in Poonch district, injuring four and killing one. In Kashmir division, security forces 6-8 May killed three Resistance Front militants, including top commander, during three-day operation in Kulgam district; security personnel 16 May allegedly killed four militants trying to infiltrate Line of Control in Kupwara district; militants 19 May shot dead ruling Bharatiya Janata Party worker in Anantnag district.

Voters cast ballots in three parliamentary constituencies representing J&K. Citizens had first chance to cast ballots in J&K since govt abrogated special status in 2019, with polls held in three parliamentary constituencies as part of national election (see India). In Srinagar city on 13 May, voter turnout reached 38%, highest since 1989; PM Narendra Modi next day claimed “abrogation of Article 370 has enabled potential and aspirations of people to find full expression”, prompting opposition political parties People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and National Conference next day to reject declaration, claiming vote reflected people’s expression against administrative changes made by New Delhi since 2019. In Baramulla on 21 May, voter turnout reached 59% – highest in four decades. Voter turnout in Anantnag-Rajouri election 25 May reached 54.3%, highest in 35 years.

Proscribed Islamist group announced intent to contest assembly elections. Prohibited socio-religious organisation Jamaat-e-Islami, banned by govt in 2019, 13 May announced it would contest assembly elections – mandated to be held by 30 Sept – if govt lifted ban; militant group The Resistance Front condemned group’s decision as betrayal of people’s wishes, while former chief minister Omar Abdullah welcomed announcement and urged govt to overturn ban.