Govt lobbied International Monetary Fund (IMF) and creditors to secure loan disbursement amid rising poverty, while fifth anniversary of 2019 Easter bombings fuelled political tensions and calls for justice.

Govt sought to secure next tranche of IMF loan. Govt officials sought to convince IMF enough progress was being made to approve second review of Extended Fund Facility and disburse third tranche of roughly $335mn. Govt 16 April stated that main stumbling block in reaching deal with commercial creditors was “baseline parameters” for bondholders, whose payout will depend on nation’s economic growth; bondholders think IMF calculations underestimate growth potential and ability to repay bonds. Campaigning for presidential election, which is due by mid-Oct, may complicate negotiations or delay debt restructure deal into 2025. Meanwhile, Asian Development Bank mid-April projected moderate growth of 1.9% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. World Bank 2 April reported devastating increase in poverty from 11% of population in 2019 to almost 26% in 2024.

Fifth anniversary of Easter bombings spurred political attacks and justice campaigns. Ahead of anniversary of 2019 Eastern attacks on 21 April, main opposition party Samagi Jana Belawegaya 4 April promised within two months of gaining power to appoint Special Investigative Commission on attacks to be served by special team of investigators, pledging to establish special court to expedite prosecutions. Delegation of opposition National People’s Power (NPP) 18 April presented its seven-point action plan, including promise to establish special investigative commission. Gen Sec of President Wickremesinghe’s United National Party, Palitha Range Bandara, 19 April attacked both NPP and Archbishop of Colombo Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, accusing NPP of having links to bombers and Cardinal of “associating” with former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Commemorating attacks, Cardinal Ranjith 21 April delivered scathing attack on Gotabaya Rajapaksa, accusing him of obstructing investigation and failing to pursue new revelations about attack, while also accusing Attorney General of failing to take legal action against govt and security officials found negligent by multiple inquiries. Rajapaksa 25 April issued detailed statement rejecting allegations.

China continued its military activity around Taiwan and increased engagement with Taiwanese opposition, while U.S. demonstrated support to Taipei with military aid package.

China continued military activity around Taiwan. As of 29 April, Taiwan detected 397 Chinese military aircraft around island, of which 212 crossed unofficial “median line” or were detected inside Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ); notably, Taiwan 3 April spotted twenty planes in ADIZ, with total of 30 planes around Taiwan. Taiwan reported 260 sightings of Chinese navy vessels in surrounding waters. China 17 April confirmed it sent fighter jets to monitor and warn U.S. Navy patrol aircraft flying over Taiwan Strait, following call between Chinese and U.S. defence officials. 

China stepped up engagement with Taiwanese opposition. President Xi Jinping 10 April met with former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou in China in bid to demonstrate viability of peaceful unification to both domestic and international audiences. Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang 26-28 April sent delegation to China, announcing that China was willing to lift some import bans and reopen some cross-strait travel as result of trip. 

U.S. continued military support to Taiwan. After bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation 28 March met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and pledged continued support, U.S. President Biden 24 April signed $1.2tn spending package containing $8.1bn foreign military allocation for Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific countries to bolster their defences and counter Chinese influence in region. KMT Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia 4-14 April visited U.S. and met lawmakers and others to discuss KMT’s foreign policy. Taiwan Naval Commander Admiral Tang Hua 8-10 April attended U.S. Navy Sea League conference in U.S., where he emphasised global implications of Chinese military action against Taiwan and advocated continued U.S.-Taiwan military exchanges. 

In another important development. Senior U.S. State Dept officials 15 April met Deputy Director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office in rare meeting in Chinese capital Beijing to discuss Taiwan issue; U.S. reaffirmed its long-standing “One-China” policy and importance of maintaining peace and stability in Taiwan Strait. 

Constitutional Court considered case to ban election-winning Move Forward Party (MFP), militant attacks continued in deep south and hundreds fleeing Myanmar’s war crossed into Thailand.

Election-winning party faced prospect of dissolution. Constitutional Court 3 April accepted petition from Election Commission seeking dissolution of Move Forward Party (MFP), which won May 2023 elections, and 10 April said it would afford MFP more time to prepare, likely pushing decision to May; in March, Election Commission had found evidence that MFP’s policy to amend lèse-majesté law was tantamount to seeking to overthrow democratic system with king as head of state. MFP’s dissolution would disenfranchise 14.4m voters who opted for party in last election, raising risk of street protests. 

Militant attacks continued in deep south. In Narathiwat province, militants 7 April ambushed truck carrying rangers in Rueso district, killing two and wounding eight. Some twenty militants 28 April ambushed police on patrol in Sungai Kolok, with IEDs, pipe bombs and small arms, wounding four. In Pattani province, roadside IED attack 5 April wounded two rangers in Thung Yang Daeng district. Gunman 13 April shot dead Muslim soldier in Panare district. Assailant 14 April shot and killed sergeant in Saiburi district. In Yala province, gunmen shot and killed Muslim soldier in Than To district. Militants 19 April ambushed police patrol in Bannang Sata district, wounding officer. Gunmen 25 April killed defence volunteer in Bannang Sata district; soldiers responding were targeted by IED, wounding three. 

War in Myanmar spilled over Thai border. Amid heavy fighting in south east Myanmar as ethnic armed group early April sought to dislodge military forces from Myawaddy, key town on Thai border, PM Srettha Thavisin 7 April assessed “the current regime is starting to lose some strength” (see Myanmar). Govt 9 April announced task force to deal with fallout from conflict and willingness to accept up to 100,000 people seeking temporary shelter. Ministry of Public Health 20 April revealed 1,686 people had crossed border seeking refuge. Foreign ministry 24 April said it urged ASEAN chair Laos to form “troika” with Indonesia and Malaysia to engage Myanmar junta on easing crisis. 

Yerevan agreed to return four villages to Baku under delimitation deal, triggering protests; U.S. and EU pledged to bolster economic support to Armenia.   

Tensions flared along Armenia-Azerbaijan border early month. Azerbaijan and Armenia traded accusations over series of border incidents in early April. Azerbaijan 2 April said Armenian troops fired at troop positions in its Nakhichevan exclave, which Armenia denied. Azerbaijan 5 April claimed Armenia was strengthening fortifications and concentrating its forces; Armenia 6 April denied allegation, EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia same day reported no unusual military movements. Shooting 10 April wounded one Azerbaijani soldier; Armenia 12 April acknowledged its soldiers violated rules that caused incident and expressed “regret”. 

Yerevan and Baku struck border delimitation deal, triggering protests in Armenia. Armenia and Azerbaijan 19 April announced agreement to restore section of Soviet-era border between Tavush region and Azerbaijan’s Qazakh district, meaning Armenia will return four villages to Azerbaijan that came under its control in 1990s. EU, U.S. and UN all welcomed agreement. Residents in Tavush region 19 April began protesting decision amid fears it will deprive them of access to farmlands; protests 24 April spread across Armenia, including capital Yerevan. Meanwhile, Armenia 26 April confirmed reception of “9th edition” of draft peace treaty from Azerbaijan.

EU-U.S.-Armenia meeting resulted in economic pledges for Armenia. Trilateral meeting between Armenia, U.S. and EU 5 April took place in Belgian capital Brussels, culminating in promises of economic support for Armenia’s reform initiatives. EU promised €270mn and U.S. committed $65mn in economic assistance, while both vowed to continue aiding Armenia’s integration of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh. Ahead of meeting, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken and European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen 3, 4 April respectively sought to reassure Azerbaijani President Aliyev that talks would focus on economic development; Aliyev voiced concerns about inclusivity and military assistance to Armenia. Russia 5 April described meeting as Western attempt to embroil “South Caucasus into geopolitical confrontations”.

Russia began withdrawing its peacekeepers from former Nagorno-Karabakh.

In surprise move, Azerbaijan and Russia 17 April confirmed sides had reached agreement for early withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from now former Nagorno-Karabakh (NK); troops had deployed in 2020 under Moscow-brokered ceasefire deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Azerbaijani presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev 17 April confirmed process had already started but did not say when it would be completed. Azerbaijani public largely welcomed news, having long feared that once installed, Russian forces would never leave; still, some opposition media voiced concern about lack of clarity around process and cost Baku incurred to achieve early withdrawal. Meanwhile, Turkish Ministry of National Defence 18 April announced that Turkish-Russian Joint Monitoring Centre, tasked with monitoring ceasefire violations in NK, would soon be terminated; closing ceremony for centre was held 26 April, marking end of its existence.

Yerevan agreed to return four villages to Baku under delimitation deal, President Aliyev raised concerns about EU-U.S.-Armenia meeting, and France recalled its ambassador.

Tensions flared along Azerbaijan-Armenia border early month. Azerbaijan and Armenia traded accusations over series of border incidents in early April. Azerbaijan 2 April said Armenian troops fired at troop positions in its Nakhichevan exclave, which Armenia denied. Azerbaijan 5 April claimed Armenia was strengthening fortifications and concentrating its forces; Armenia 6 April denied allegation, EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia same day reported no unusual military movements. Shooting 10 April wounded one Azerbaijani soldier; Armenia 12 April acknowledged its soldiers violated rules that caused incident and expressed “regret”. 

Yerevan and Baku struck border delimitation deal, triggering protests in Armenia. Armenia and Azerbaijan 19 April announced agreement to restore section of Soviet-era border between Armenia’s Tavush region and Qazakh district, meaning Armenia will return four villages to Azerbaijan that came under its control in 1990s. EU, U.S. and UN all welcomed agreement. Residents in Tavush region 19 April began protesting decision amid fears it will deprive them of access to farmlands (see Armenia). Meanwhile, Armenia 26 April confirmed reception of “9th edition” of draft peace treaty from Azerbaijan.

Baku raised concerns about EU-U.S.-Armenia trilateral meeting. Meeting between Armenia, U.S. and EU 5 April took place in Belgian capital Brussels, culminating in promises of economic support for Armenia’s reform initiatives (see Armenia). Ahead of meeting, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken and European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen 3, 4 April respectively sought to reassure President Aliyev that talks would focus on economic development; Aliyev voiced concerns about inclusivity and military assistance to Armenia. Russia 5 April described meeting as Western attempt to embroil “South Caucasus into geopolitical confrontations”.

In other important developments. Authorities 22 April placed opposition politician Gubad Ibadoglu, detained in July 2023, under house arrest. Azerbaijan and Russia 17 April announced early withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from former Nagorno-Karabakh (see Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict). France 16 April recalled its ambassador to Azerbaijan for consultations amid rising bilateral tensions.

Minsk withdrew from arms control treaty and announced arrival of Russian nuclear weapons, crackdown on dissent continued, and West imposed more sanctions.

Belarus left arms control treaty and nuclear weapons arrived. Parliament 17 April voted to suspend participation in Conventional Forces in Europe treaty, arms control agreement that Russia withdrew from in 2023. Parliamentary Assembly 25 April adopted new military doctrine, which defines deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil as strategic deterrent; during assembly, President Lukashenko announced arrival of “several dozen nuclear weapons” from Russia. Meanwhile, govt 25 April said it thwarted attack on capital Minsk by “combat drones from the territory of Lithuania”; Lithuania same day denied allegation.

Crackdown on dissent continued. Notably, Vyasna human rights group 2 April said authorities had arrested former Green Party leader Dzmitry Kuchuk for allegedly “organising activities that grossly violate public order”. Wife of imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Byalyatski 9 April said Byalyatski’s health had deteriorated in solitary confinement, urged UN to “act”. Authorities 29 April banned German media organisation Deutsche Welle.

West imposed more punitive measures. U.S. 15 April imposed sanctions on Belarusian entities and individuals for “continuing support for Russia’s war against Ukraine”; Canada same day introduced measures in response to “ongoing human rights violations in Belarus since the fraudulent presidential election of 2020”.

Lawmakers in Republika Srpska adopted Election Law, escalating confrontation with High Representative and threatening constitutional order; draft UN resolution commemorating Srebrenica fuelled tensions. 

Lawmakers in Republika Srpska (RS) voted to adopt entity-level Election Law. National Assembly of self-governing entity RS 19 April adopted Election Law transferring state-level competencies for elections and referendums to entity; move came amid escalating tensions between Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and High Representative Christian Schmidt over latter’s 26 March decision to impose changes to state-level Election Law using his executive powers. Ahead of RS vote, EU 18 April warned of “serious consequences” if any action is taken to undermine Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) territorial integrity, while U.S. Embassy in capital Sarajevo 12 April vowed to respond as Dodik “pursues his secessionist agenda and pushes BiH toward conflict”. Bosniak delegates in RS People’s Council 29 April claimed law violates their vital interests and appealed to RS constitutional court.

Upcoming UN vote on commemorating Srebrenica ignited tensions. Draft UN resolution to declare 11 July as “International Day of Reflection and Remembrance of the 1995 Srebrenica Genocide” fuelled tensions. Dodik 18 April organised rally in RS city Banja Luka — with 50,000 people and top Serbian officials in attendance — against draft, which UN General Assembly will vote on in May. During rally, Dodik acknowledged “crime” at Srebrenica but denied it was genocide; he also vowed RS would become one country with Serbia “as soon as the first opportunity arises”. 

UN personal envoy maintained her search for common ground between parties, aiming for return to formal talks.

Ahead of expiration of UN Sec-Gen’s Personal Envoy to Cyprus Maria Holguin Cuellar’s mandate in early June, Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar 5 April met UN Sec-Gen António Guterres in New York City, after which Tatar reiterated his scepticism toward envoy by saying he did not believe Cuellar could find common ground between sides; Tatar urged all parties to recognise existence of “two peoples, two democratic states, two authorities” and also warned against flare-up of tensions on island, saying “little misunderstanding” such as accidental shooting of Turkish soldier could “turn the situation into a new Gaza”. Republic of Cyprus next day described Tatar’s remarks as incompatible with future of their “mutual” homeland. Republic of Cyprus FM Constantin Kombos 11 April voiced readiness to resume formal talks but said Turkish Cypriots and Türkiye had imposed new conditions. Holguin 29 April visited Belgian capital Brussels for meetings with high level EU officials, including European Council President Charles Michel. Meanwhile, EU Council’s declaration 18 April hinged enhancement of ties with Türkiye in part on progress on Cyprus issues; Ankara same day accused EU of “reductionism” in tying broader cooperation to Cyprus. 

Ruling party Georgian Dream reintroduced “Foreign Agents” law, triggering protests and harsh police response; EU warned of implications for accession process.

Ruling party reintroduced “Foreign Agents” law, prompting major backlash. Georgian Dream 3 April revived draft “foreign agents” law, having withdrawn bill in March 2023 after massive street protests and international opposition; law would require media and NGOs to register as organisations serving “interests of a foreign power” if they receive over 20% of their funding from abroad, which critics have warned mimics repressive Russian legislation. Parliament committee hearing on legislation 15 April led to brawl among MPs, while thousands took to streets in protest, prompting tough police response; rights group Amnesty International 17 April criticised “excessive force”. Thousands 28 April staged “March for Europe”. Ruling party next day passed law in second reading, organised pro-govt counter-rally; in speech to protesters, Georgian Dream founder and billionaire Bidzina Ivanshvili expressed support for draft law and accused Western “global party of war” of meddling in Georgia through opposition and NGOs. Protests 30 April led to harsh crackdown as police used tear gas, while reportedly beating and arresting scores. Meanwhile, EU and U.S. 17, 18 April respectively urged ruling party to retract law, with EU warning it could “compromise Georgia’s EU path”; European Parliament 25 April threatened revision of visa-free scheme and sanctions against Ivanshvili.

Political tensions continued to rise amid forthcoming elections. Georgian Dream 4 April voted to abolish gender quota for political parties in Oct parliamentary elections; opposition party Girchi proposed initiative in exchange for backing ruling party’s nominee for chairperson of Central Election Committee. President Zourabichvili 18 April vetoed amendments on gender quotas. Meanwhile, authorities 8 April revoked registration of pro-Kremlin Conservative Movement amid corruption allegations; party same day said move was politically motivated.

Latest round of Geneva International Discussions took place. 60th round of Geneva International Discussions – multilateral forum to address security and humanitarian consequences of 2008 Russo-Georgian War – 4-5 April took place without new announcements. Participants scheduled next round for June.