Authorities again renewed state of exception as attention shifted from security to economy.

Authorities renewed state of exception amid ongoing discussions about its impact. Legislative Assembly 10 April extended state of exception for 30 days. University Institute of Public Opinion (IUDOP) 15 April published survey evaluating measure. Among other things, review found that majority of people credit state of exception with improving security, with almost 88% reportedly feeling safer since its inception; 74% said they were cautious of discussing measure, however, for fear of reprisals. Many respondents also raised concerns about arrest of innocent people and other abuses perpetrated by security forces. Meanwhile, lawmakers 29 April approved amendment to Article 248 of Constitution, allowing same legislature to pass constitutional reforms with two thirds of vote; critics said move further consolidates President Bukele’s power. 

Concerns about economy grew. IUDOP’s survey revealed that Salvadorans main concerns have shifted from security to economy, unemployment and high cost of living. Media 11 April reported that Legislative Assembly had approved 49 different loans for Bukele administration; opposition congresswoman Claudia Ortiz 10 April criticised govt debt and lack of transparency about how loans are used.  

Transitional council was sworn in after lengthy negotiations, gang offensive continued amid deteriorating humanitarian crisis, and deployment of multinational security mission remained uncertain.

Transitional council sworn in, Edgard Leblanc selected to head body. After weeks of negotiations, cabinet of outgoing PM Henry 12, 16 April published two documents formalising creation of transitional presidential council and naming its seven voting members and two non-voting observers. Henry 24 April resigned; Council was sworn in next day with heavy police protection, 30 April it named former senate President Edgard Leblanc to head body. Four council members (forming majority bloc) same day proposed former sports minister Fritz Bélizaire as their candidate for prime minister, however, threatening new crisis as three remaining voting members accused their colleagues of violating procedures for designating PM. 

Gang offensive continued. Gang alliance known as Viv Ansanm continued their offensive, mostly in capital Port-au-Prince. Notably, gangs 1 April launched assault to seize control of national palace; gang members from Canaan gang 7 April demolished police station in Bon Repos neighbourhood; and armed attack 11 April in Cabaret town north of capital killed ten. Gangs also looted and burned down dozens of pharmacies, clinics, shops and private residences. Police conducted some successful counter-operations, 5 April seizing significant number of weapons and ammunition at Cap Haitian port, 6 April recovering ship carrying rice that gangs had hijacked two days before. Self-defence groups stepped-up activities, pushing back gangs from several neighbourhoods in capital and beyond. 

Violence aggravated humanitarian crisis. Notably, International Organization for Migration 9 April reported some 95,000 people had fled capital since early March; World Food Program 11 April warned its food stocks could run out by end of April; and head of UN children’s agency 22 April said essential services had collapsed in many areas.

Deployment of multinational security mission remained uncertain. Kenyan President Ruto 25 April welcomed swearing-in of council as “a crucial step in the political transition of Haiti” and reiterated Kenya’s readiness to send security mission, though start date still unknown. Earlier, eight private sector organisations in Haiti 15 April sent letter to Ruto expressing concern about delays to mission and called for its rapid deployment. 

Tensions ran high in lead-up to June elections as corruption allegations mounted, criminal violence continued, and Mexico severed ties with Ecuador following embassy raid. 

Former chief justice dismissed corruption allegations as politically motivated. Supreme Court 12 April announced investigation into former Chief Justice Arturo Zaldívar, who stepped down from his position late 2023 to join campaign of ruling MORENA party’s presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum; court alleged Zaldívar pressured judges to vote in favour of govt during his four-year stint as Chief Justice. Zaldívar 16 April announced he would take legal action against his successor Norma Piña for using court for political purposes and electoral interference. Meanwhile, MORENA leader Mario Delgado 16 April said his party would bring charges against opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez for alleged corruption. Sheinbaum and Gálvez 28 April accused each other of belonging to “narco parties” during presidential debate.

Violence persisted at high levels. Political violence continued to intensify in run-up to elections. Notably, unknown gunmen 1 April shot dead MORENA mayoral candidate outside Celaya city (Guanajuato state). Criminal violence also continued, particularly in Chiapas and Michoacán states. Notably, security forces 15 April clashed with alleged members of Sinaloa Cartel in Acapetahua municipality (Chiapas); fighting between Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and armed self-defence groups over territory along border between Michoacán and Colima states displaced hundreds; and alleged CJNG members 23 April killed four in Centro Municipality, Tabasco state. Meanwhile, International Organization for Migration 12 April reported that number of irregular migration cases in Mexico had risen by 77% in 2023 compared with 2022, and that violence against migrants had escalated. 

Police in Ecuador stormed Mexican embassy, prompting Mexico to sever ties. Authorities in Ecuador 5 April forced their way into Mexican embassy in capital Quito and arrested Ecuador’s former VP Jorge Glas, who had been awaiting response to his political asylum request. Mexico 6 April severed diplomatic ties with Ecuador, while international community condemned incursion. Mexico 11 April brought charges before International Court of Justice, requesting that it suspend Ecuador’s UN membership.

Crackdown on civil society and religious organisations continued; govt accused Germany of enabling “genocide” in Gaza.   

Crackdown on dissent continued. Govt 8 April approved law declaring April as “the month of peace”, in move critics argued was designed to overshadow anniversary of April 2018 protests and violent govt response. Meanwhile, repression of civil society and religious organisations continued. Notably, authorities 3 April closed down fifteen civil and religious organisations, 23 April cancelled legal status of fifteen NGOs. NGO Monitoreo Azul y Blanco 3 April denounced arbitrary detention of at least seven people who participated in religious activities during Holy Week in March. Monitoreo Azul y Blanco 16 April published report about evolving nature of govt repression since 2018 and said it had documented 11,350 human rights violations since clampdown began.

In important international developments. Nicaragua 8 April accused Germany of “facilitating the commission of genocide” in Gaza by supplying Israel with arms and financial assistance, and pressed International Court of Justice to order Germany to cease arms deliveries to Israel; Berlin next day rejected allegations amid rising tensions. Managua 10 April closed its embassy in Berlin. Delegation from Belarus 9 April arrived in capital amid efforts to expand bilateral cooperation. U.S. 16 April expanded sanctions against Nicaragua.

Opposition coalition rallied behind little-known presidential candidate Edmundo González, raising hopes for a more competitive election in July; U.S. partially revoked sanctions relief.

Opposition agreed on unity candidate. Opposition coalition Unitary Platform 19 April announced it had reached agreement to support candidacy of retired diplomat Edmundo González in July poll. Zulia state governor Manuel Rosales, whose Un Nuevo Tiempo party (Platform member) had registered his candidacy unilaterally, stood down in favour of González, while banned candidate María Corina Machado 20 April pledged her support. Fears that govt would move to ban González or Unitary Platform’s ticket (known as MUD) did not immediately materialise as govt, after delay, eventually allowed parties that had backed Rosales to formalise their change of candidate. Decision to rally behind González raised hopes for more competitive presidential election in July. Meanwhile, Colombian President Petro 17 April told Brazilian President Lula that he had proposed “plebiscite” between govt and opposition guaranteeing protection from political persecution for poll’s loser.

U.S. reimposed oil sanctions but stopped short of full snapback. U.S. 17 April announced it would not renew General Licence 44, under which Venezuela could sell oil and gas on open market, though its replacement, GL-44a, leaves open option of licences for individual companies to do business with state oil corporation PDVSA. U.S. argued Maduro govt had “not fully met the commitments” it made under Oct 2023 Barbados Agreement with opposition; in particular, it said govt had “prevented the democratic opposition from registering the candidate of their choice, harassed and intimidated political opponents, and unjustly detained numerous political actors and members of civil society”. President Maduro and his chief negotiator Jorge Rodríguez same day said Washington, not Caracas, had failed to fulfil commitments, with Maduro claiming U.S. had promised to lift all sanctions during talks. U.S. Ambassador Francisco Palmieri 23 April said Washington would “keep channels open” for further talks. 

International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor to open office in capital. President Maduro 23 April signed agreement allowing ICC prosecutor Karim Khan to open office in capital Caracas and invited UN human rights officials (expelled in Jan) to return to Venezuela; terms for their return have yet to be agreed.

Political opposition emerged to President Tebboune’s anticipated run for second term; meeting with Libya and Tunisia spurred talk of new regional grouping.

President of centrist party criticised President Tebboune’s possible re-election bid. Ahead of 7 Sept presidential election, Soufiane Djilali, president of moderate centrist Jil Jadid party, 8 April said under Tebboune “political life has been anaesthetised”, and indicated it would be preferable if president did not run for second term; Tebboune yet to officially confirm his candidacy amid reports of internal splits within security forces over who to support.

Algerian, Libyan and Tunisian heads of state held high-level discussions. Amid continued Algiers tensions with Rabat, Tebboune 22 April met Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed and Libyan Head of Presidential Council Mohamed al-Menfi in Tunisian capital Tunis as part of new effort to convene every three months as group of three, raising prospect of new bloc of central North African states as alternative to pre-existing body Arab Maghreb Union that includes Mauritania and Morocco. However, al-Menfi 24 April sent envoys to Mauritania and Morocco emphasising need to include both in regional bloc cooperation, dampening attempts to create new grouping.

Tensions increased with United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Niger. Strains with UAE remained high following Tebboune’s 30 March televised interview in which he indirectly accused Emiratis of “stirring trouble” in conflicts in Libya, Mali and Sudan; mistrust further fuelled by UAE state-owned company Taqa 17 April beginning discussions to take over Spanish gas company Naturgy that has 49% stake in Medgaz pipeline linking Algeria to Spain, amid fears UAE would gain leverage over Algeria and its economy. Meanwhile, tensions also increased with Niger over migration flows; Niamey 3 April summoned Algerian ambassador with Algerian authorities following day responding in kind. 

In another important development. Govt remained focused on non-alignment, hosting Russian and NATO officials 13 and 17 April respectively.

Officials continued advocating for ceasefire in Gaza while economic pressures forced govt to implement rolling blackouts and asset sales. 

Govt continued calls for Gaza ceasefire, amid worries of Palestinian refugee influx. President Sisi 8 April penned joint op-ed in Washington Post newspaper with French President Emmanuel Macron and Jordanian King Abdullah II calling for immediate ceasefire in Gaza and negotiations toward two-state solution; Sisi same day met with Palestinian PM Mohamed Mustafa in capital Cairo to again reject scenario of mass displacement of Palestinians. Amid fears of influx of refugees from war, FM Shoukry 12 April called U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken to reiterate Cairo’s opposition to possible Israeli military operation in southern Gazan city of Rafah, while Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news site 18 April reported Cairo reinforced troops near Gaza border in case ground invasion leads to refugee crisis. Egypt and Turkey 20 April affirmed alignment on Gaza situation and humanitarian aid.

Govt resorted to rolling blackouts and sale of state-owned assets. Amid economic downturn, electricity ministry 14 April announced resumption of daily rolling power outages, previously suspended during holy month of Ramadan, to save $1bn annually. International media outlets 22 April reported govt plans to buy natural gas internationally to meet rising domestic demand amid declining production from existing fields. Meanwhile, Planning Minister 21 April said authorities aim to raise $1bn in 2024 and $1.5bn in 2025 through sale of state-owned assets to private investors.

In other important developments. Sisi 2 April sworn in for third consecutive term following Dec elections and promised to implement recommendations of national dialogue initiative issued Aug 2023 which included electoral reform and protection of human rights. Police 4 April arrested fourteen pro-Palestinian activists on charges of forming terrorist group and circulating fake news; detainees released 7 April amid uncertainty over status of cases. 

Years-long shadow war between Iran and Israel escalated into overt and direct hostilities, with Tehran launching unprecedented retaliatory attack on Israeli territory with massive barrage of drones and missiles. 

Israeli strike on Iran’s Syrian consulate triggered unprecedented confrontation. Airstrike on Iranian consular facility in Syrian capital Damascus, widely attributed to Israel, 1 April killed two senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and five officers, marking most significant in string of Israeli operations against Iranian military personnel since late 2023. After Iran’s leadership loudly vowed revenge, IRGC 13 April seized MSC Aries, container ship linked to Israeli ownership, in Gulf of Oman. In first ever direct attack, Iran later same day unleased massive barrage of 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at Israel, which according to Israeli and U.S. officials were intercepted with near-total success with exception of minor damage at Israeli airbase and reported wounded civilian. Tehran signalled action was limited and concluded, warning any Israeli response would be met by more substantial counter-response; hinting of weaponising nuclear program, senior IRGC official 18 April warned that “reconsidering nuclear doctrine and policies of [Iran] is probable and imaginable” were Israel to target nuclear facilities. Israel 18-19 April conducted drone/missile attack in Isfahan city, impact of which Tehran largely dismissed. Both sides late April refrained from further hostilities, but risk of direct confrontation remains as pair seek to establish new red lines (see Conflict in Focus). Meanwhile, U.S. 25 April sanctioned more than two dozen additional persons and entities linked to development or transfer of Iranian UAVs.

Separatist militants in south east launched deadly attacks. In Sistan and Baluchestan province (south east), separatist Baluch militant group Jaish al-Adl 3 April launched coordinated assault on military and police targets in Rask and Chabahar cities, which IRGC next day said killed ten security forces personnel and eighteen militants. Jaish al-Adl ambush 9 April reportedly killed six policemen. 

Authorities renewed imposition of cultural conservative mandates. Govt 13 April launched renewed campaign to enforce mandatory hijab wearing on women, which could reignite social and political discontent that led to widespread anti-regime protests following death of Mahsa Amini in 2022.

Iran-backed armed groups carried out first strikes on U.S. targets in Iraq and Syria in months, govt engaged U.S. on withdrawing U.S.-led coalition troops and Turkish President Erdoğan made landmark visit.

Iran-backed groups resumed attacks on U.S. forces after lull. Marking first such attack since early Feb, rockets launched from Zummar town, Ninewa governorate, 21 April targeted U.S. base in Syria; U.S. next day shot down drones near Ain al-Asad air base in Anbar governorate. Islamic Resistance in Iraq 1 April claimed aerial attack that struck building in Israeli city Eilat; group throughout April claimed series of unconfirmed attacks on Israeli targets. Amid direct hostilities between Iran and Israel, govt 13-14 April closed airspace and PM Sudani 16 April claimed no drones or missiles were fired at Israel from Iraq (see Iran, Israel-Palestine and Conflict in Focus). 

Iraq and U.S. discussed troops’ drawdown, PM Sudani visited Washington. U.S. and Iraq 8 April held third round of talks within Higher Military Commission on drawdown of U.S.-led anti-Islamic State mission in Iraq. PM al-Sudani 15 April met U.S. President Biden in U.S. capital Washington, signing some twenty agreements, committing to talks on security cooperation and announcing plans to hold joint Security Cooperation Dialogue. Lack of clarity on future of U.S.-led coalition’s mandate risks raising tensions between govt and Iran-aligned paramilitary groups who are pushing for U.S. withdrawal.

Erdoğan made first state visit since 2011, as Turkish strikes persisted. Erdoğan 22 April met PM Sudani in capital Baghdad and Kurdish authorities in Erbil, signing 25 cooperation agreements, including on security, energy and water management; Erdoğan also claimed pair discussed “joint steps” against Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) ahead of suspected Turkish summer offensive. Clashes with PKK 9 April killed Turkish soldier; Turkish military 15 April launched airstrikes in mountains Asos and Hakurk areas of north.

Baghdad-Erbil tensions improved. Ahead of Sudani’s visit to U.S., Federal Finance Ministry 4 April said it released funds to pay March salaries of civil servants and social security beneficiaries in Kurdistan region, easing tensions between Baghdad and Erbil over delayed payments.

Israel’s destructive war in Gaza killed hundreds more Palestinians amid worsening famine and threat of Rafah invasion, while settler violence surged in West Bank; Israeli strike triggered unprecedented confrontation with Iran. 

In Gaza, Israel’s deadly attacks continued amid discovery of mass graves, famine and Rafah offensive. Israel killed almost 2,000 Palestinians in April, bringing death toll to at least 34,535 since Oct. Israel 1 April lifted two-week siege on al-Shifa hospital, which killed hundreds including medical staff; after withdrawal, observers on ground reported mass graves with bodies allegedly displaying signs of extrajudicial executions, torture and rape. Israel 1 April repeatedly targeted World Central Kitchen aid convoy, killing seven aid workers, prompting international outcry; UN data showed Israel has killed more than 180 aid workers since Oct. Israel 7 April pulled out most troops from Khan Younis city but 22 April reportedly re-entered city’s east. Israel conducted repeated airstrikes on Rafah city, as it threatened ground invasion that could kill or again displace many of 1.4m Palestinians seeking refuge there. UNRWA chief 17 April warned “man-made famine is tightening its grip” across Gaza and accused Israel of continued aid obstruction, while World Food Program 24 April remarked “all three famine thresholds – food insecurity, malnutrition, mortality – will be passed in the next six weeks”. Round of ceasefire talks 7 April resumed in Egypt; new momentum late April reportedly improved prospects of deal.

Israel and Iran exchanged direct blows; Israel-Hizbollah hostilities intensified. Airstrike on Iranian consular facility in Syrian capital Damascus, widely attributed to Israel, 1 April killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel. In response, Iran 13 April unleashed barrage of 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at Israel in first ever direct attack (see Iran and Conflict in Focus). Meanwhile, hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah escalated (see Lebanon).

Settlers rampaged West Bank. Israeli forces and settlers killed dozens of Palestinians in April, bringing total killed in West Bank to at least 470 since 7 Oct. Notably, abduction and killing of 14-year-old Israeli 12 April sparked settler rampage in at least seventeen villages, killing four. In largest land seizure since Oslo Accords, Israel late March declared 800 hectares in West Bank “state land”.