India is emerging on the international stage as both an aspiring voice for the global south and a strategic partner for Western democracies that perceive it as a counterweight to China. Its rise is accompanied by regional and domestic conflicts. The traditionally restive western border with Pakistan remains on edge, as the Kashmir conflict continues to fester. The northern border with China has been unstable since the deadly clash of April 2020, with tensions between the two Asian giants increasingly enmeshed in the U.S.-China rivalry. An ethnic conflict is raging in the state of Manipur, bordering Myanmar, threatening to destabilise the country’s north-eastern region. Meanwhile, concerns are growing about the steady erosion of India’s democracy. Crisis Group monitors and analyses India’s foreign policy and domestic conflicts with the aim of providing policymakers effective frameworks for better understanding and addressing these internal and external dynamics.
Read our CrisisWatch entries on India-Pakistan (Kashmir) here.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party remains in the driver’s seat following the Indian elections, but it has lost its majority in parliament. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi explores the implications for New Delhi’s domestic and foreign policies.
Manipur ethnic conflict persisted, security forces killed at least 22 suspected Maoists in centre, and India-China border tensions continued.
Violence persisted in Manipur. PM Modi 2 July addressed Manipur conflict at lower house of parliament for first time in almost a year, underlining govt’s efforts to ensure return to peace and calling for cooperation with opposition. In Manipur’s Jiribam district, suspected Kuki militants 6 July allegedly killed Meitei man, triggering clashes and violence, fuelling displacement to Assam state; 14 July killed security personnel and injured two. In Assam’s Cachar district, authorities 16 July killed three Hmar youths whom they accused of being militants; Hmar Students’ Association next day claimed those deceased were “village volunteers” defending community from Meitei militants, called for investigation. In Manipur’s Imphal East district, Kangleipak Communist Party militants 20 July shot down Meitei man.
Anti-Maoist operations continued. In Chhattisgarh’s Narayanpur district, security forces 2 July killed five militants during operation. Security forces 8 July killed Maoist in Madhya Pradesh’s Balaghat district; 9 July shot down militant in Chhattisgarh’s Kanker district. In Maharashtra’s Gadchiroli district, security forces 17 July killed 12 militants during operation, which also left two security personnel injured. In Chhattisgarh’s Bijapur district, IED blast on same day killed two security personnel and injured four others; security forces 19 July shot down Maoist. Authorities 20 July killed suspected Maoist in Chhattisgarh’s Sukma district; 25 July shot dead another suspected Maoist in Telangana state.
India-China border relations remained tense. Indian FM Jaishankar 4 July met Chinese counterpart at Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit; both agreed to intensify talks to resolve border issues, noting that prolongation of current situation is not in interests of either side; gap in readouts, however, indicates that normalcy in bilateral ties will likely remain elusive. Reuters 9 July reported India was planning to invest $1bn in construction of 12 hydropower stations in north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, claimed by China to be South Tibet; Chinese Foreign Ministry 10 July described project “illegal and invalid”, said “South Tibet is China’s territory”. Indian and Chinese FMs 25 July met at ASEAN-related meetings in Laos, stressed importance to resolve border issue at Line of Actual Control.
India’s most trusted … bilateral relationship is probably with Russia. It’s been at the heart of India’s foreign and strategic policy for a long time.
New Delhi’s pro-Israel shift gives a new reason to [India's] right-wing ecosystem that routinely targets Muslims.
India does not want a unipolar Asia where China is dominant … It wants a multipolar Asia, which India says will lead to a multipolar world.
This regional rivalry between India and China is only bound to get more intense as it gets enmeshed with the great power rivalry between the US and China.
In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve talk with Crisis Group trustee and former Indian National Security Adviser and Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon about India’s views on the U.S. election and how New Dehli navigates a rapidly changing world order.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Pauline Bax and Falko Ernst about recent elections in India, South Africa and Mexico and what they mean for the countries’ policies at home and abroad.
Modi’s Tough Stance Could Invite—Not Deter—Chinese Aggression.
Indian authorities speak confidently of a new era in the region of Jammu and Kashmir, for decades a hotbed of separatism, insurgency and tensions with neighbouring Pakistan. But with New Delhi stalling on promised elections, local frustration continues to fuel unrest.
Frictions along the India-China frontier have heated up following a burst of fighting in 2020, the first in decades. The danger of more will lurk as long as the countries disagree over where the line lies. Both should take steps to manage the mounting risks.
Inter-communal clashes have erupted in India’s Manipur state, near Myanmar. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi delves into what caused the unrest and what New Delhi could do to stop it.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks with Crisis Group trustee and former Indian Foreign Secretary and National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon about New Delhi’s response to the Ukraine war, India’s foreign policy and why the war could strain relations between Western capitals and the rest of the world.
Militants in Indian-administered Kashmir have increased the targeted killing of Hindus, who are a small minority in the region, spreading panic among them. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi draws upon interviews with residents to explore the implications of this violence.
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