President Alpha Condé’s unwillingness to give up power set the stage for a military takeover on 5 September. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Vincent Foucher and Rinaldo Depagne show how this latest coup d’état is part of a worrying trend in West Africa.
Military authorities intensified crackdown on civil society opponents, as tensions rose over death of former junta ally, exposing rifts in ruling powers.
Authorities allegedly detained several activists, creating widespread uproar. In incident that highlighted mounting tensions between military govt and civil society, one of main civil society groups National Front for Defense of Constitution (FNDC) accused security forces of “kidnapping” three of their activists on night of 9 July – Foniké Menguè, Mamadou Billo Bah, as well as Mohamed Cissé, who was released following day; FNDC condemned arrest and claimed it was carried out “in violent manner” while activists’ lawyers said those who took them did not have warrant. In response, coalition of opposition parties and civil society groups Les Forces Vives de Guinée 13 July called for mobilisation to free activists, restore constitutional order and fundamental freedoms; lawyers’ union 16 July began two-week strike to protest arbitrary arrests. Attorney General 17 July denied junta’s involvement in disappearances and called for investigation; activists’ lawyers next day made “urgent” appeal to International Criminal Court. Arrests of opposition figures continued late month including of activist Simon Pierre Camara 27 July and politician Francis Haba next day. Security forces and demonstrators 30 July clashed in capital Conakry during anti-govt protests organised by civil society groups demanding activists’ release. Rights group Amnesty International 11 July said authorities have increased “crackdown on peaceful dissent” in recent months.
Rumours of cracks within military emerged after former chief of staff’s death. Sudden death of former military head Gen. Sadiba Koulibaly in June continued to drive speculation of splits within army. Despite authorities maintaining Koulibaly – previously key ally of President Col. Doumbouya – had died of cardiac arrest, many details remained unclear; govt 5 July called on media to act responsibly over case and said victim’s family “could go before the courts to have the doubts removed” if they had uncertainty over cause of death. Case continued to raise speculation throughout month that govt remained worried over potential threats to Doumbouya’s position.
In another important development. Govt 29 July presented draft constitution to be submitted to referendum before end 2024.
Guinea approaches the second free presidential election in its history under difficult circumstances. Unless the government convenes a serious dialogue with the opposition, it risks electoral violence and exacerbating ethnic divisions.
Vincent Foucher, Crisis Group’s West Africa Senior Analyst, draws attention to the complex and problematic electoral process in Guinea, now faced with the additional threat of the Ebola epidemic, causing tensions between the government and the opposition party in agreeing a date for upcoming elections.
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