A fragile democratic transition faces the dual challenges of political instability and poorly designed counter-terrorism strategies that sacrifice long-term peace for perceived short-term security goals, fuelling militancy in various parts of the country. Across the border, rival India accuses Pakistan of harbouring terrorists and even sponsoring deadly attacks on Indian soil. There is no resolution in sight to the two countries’ dispute over Kashmir, which continues to claim soldiers’ and civilians’ lives along the Line of Control. Crisis Group monitors Pakistan’s domestic politics and security, with the aim of informing Pakistani leaders and international stakeholders about effective strategies for countering instability within the country and preventing its spillover abroad.
Read our CrisisWatch entries on India-Pakistan (Kashmir) here.
On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge over the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
Security forces continued to undertake anti-militant operations, straining ties with Kabul amid delicate internal political situation.
Domestic political situation remained volatile. Pakistan and International Monetary Fund 12 July reached staff-level agreement for $7bn bailout, easing concerns about risk of sovereign default. Meanwhile, Supreme Court 12 July issued ruling in favour of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) by granting it 22 seats reserved for women and minorities in federal legislature, paving way for PTI to return to parliament as largest party with 114 seats.
Security operations against militant groups continued. Sindh counter-terrorism department 13 July arrested suspected commander of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)’s Karachi chapter; TTP took responsibility for 8 July killing of senior counter-terrorism official. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province near Afghanistan witnessed several deadly attacks, including one officer and four soldiers killed 9 July during security operations in North and South Waziristan and Lakki Marwat districts. Ten militants 15 July targeted Bannu city cantonment, killing eight soldiers in suicide car bombing; military killed all ten militants and attributed attack to TTP’s Afghanistan-based Gul Bahadur group. Two soldiers and five civilians, including two women health workers, next day killed in militant attack in Dera Ismail district. Meanwhile, local anti-TTP “peace march” 20 July turned violent in Bannu city, KPK, leaving one dead and dozens injured; three Baloch protesters killed 28 July in clashes with security forces in various Balochistan cities.
Tensions with Kabul over TPP activity persisted. After Bannu attack, military 16 July blamed Afghanistan for allowing TTP to operate within its borders, said Pakistan would take all necessary measures against such threats emanating from Afghanistan. Foreign Ministry 17 July said “strong demarche” had been delivered to Afghan deputy head of mission. Blaming Gul Bahadur group for attack, ministry called on Kabul “to fully investigate and take immediate, robust and effective action” against those responsible. After protesters bearing Afghan flags 20 July attacked Pakistani consulate in Frankfurt city, Germany, defence minister said Islamabad would have to rethink its “hospitality” to Afghan people; comment came after Islamabad allowed “legal” refugees to stay in country following visit from UN Refugee Agency chief Filippo Grandi 7-9 July.
As Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban severed, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has also gotten cold feet in their engagement [with the Taliban].
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s South Asia director Samina Ahmed about the fallout from Pakistan's February elections, former Prime Minister Imran Khan's enduring popularity, a wave of violence in Pakistan’s border regions and Islamabad’s frustration with the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan.
Indian authorities speak confidently of a new era in the region of Jammu and Kashmir, for decades a hotbed of separatism, insurgency and tensions with neighbouring Pakistan. But with New Delhi stalling on promised elections, local frustration continues to fuel unrest.
A crucial vote is drawing near in Pakistan with former Prime Minister Imran Khan behind bars and his party alleging bias in election commission and caretaker government decisions. As the country is deeply polarised, disputes could turn ugly. Authorities can still avoid the worst-case scenarios.
Pakistan has started repatriations that could force millions of Afghans back to their crisis-wracked home country. As Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss explains in this Q&A, the policy could bring further trouble to the region, notwithstanding Islamabad’s efforts to justify itself on security grounds.
As Pakistan faces interlocking crises that threaten the outbreak of violence, political stability is of the utmost importance. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Spring Update, Crisis Group explains what the EU can do to help.
Two large attacks on police installations have rocked Pakistan, compelling the authorities to rethink their approach to countering militancy. Their dilemma is that the insurgents’ main supporters – the new authorities in Afghanistan – are also their long-time allies.
The Pakistani military is getting new leadership amid political turmoil centred around former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who refuses to accept the current government as legitimate. The generals promise not to get involved, but if the dispute turns violent, they may feel compelled to intervene.
A would-be assassin wounded former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan as he led his followers in a protest march calling for snap elections. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Samina Ahmed explains the causes and possible consequences of the country’s latest political tumult.
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