Azerbaijan is keen to resettle territories regained from Armenian control. Landmines are its largest headache. To woo foreign support, Baku should be more welcoming of outside expertise. Along with Yerevan, it should also unlink demining from the conflict and consider joining the landmine ban treaty.
Efforts to reinvigorate deadlocked peace talks with Armenia foundered, while tensions along border persisted; relations with Iran thawed.
Baku accused Yerevan of provocations at border amid faltering peace talks. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 10 July facilitated meeting between his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts on margins of NATO summit in U.S. capital Washington, D.C.; meeting only lasted 30 minutes, however, and led to no announcements or detailed follow-up statements amid reports of opposition to talks from Baku, which wants to maintain bilateral format established after its victory in Nagorno-Karabakh. One week later, President Aliyev and Armenian PM Pashinyan were due to hold UK-facilitated meeting on 18 July but talks fell apart at last moment. Baku subsequently started accusing Yerevan of “provocations” along border, including 21 July incident using heavy weapons in Kelbajar district and two incidents late July involving quadcopters in Tovuz and Lachin directions; Armenia denied allegations.
Sides remained at odds on peace treaty. Aliyev 20 July claimed 80-90% of draft peace treaty was ready but reiterated that Baku would only sign document if Armenia removes references to Nagorno-Karabakh in its constitution. With Armenia’s state commission expected to table new provisions by end of 2026, senior Azerbaijani official 21 July suggested sides could sign document outlining basic principles of future treaty as interim measure. Although Yerevan has never publicly rejected idea, it has signalled preference for clarifying provisions on more contentious issues before anything is signed, such as opening of road connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan. Meanwhile, sides late July reportedly finalised demarcation of small section of border, though concerns persisted about future of demarcation process amid stuttering peace talks and disagreement about what maps to use.
In other important developments. Preparations for Sept parliamentary elections continued; in absence of free media and strong opposition, coupled with Aliyev’s popularity following victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, elections likely to deliver ruling party decisive victory. Azerbaijan 6 July hosted summit of Organization of Turkic States, focused on deepening cooperation in defence, energy and transportation between Turkic nations. Azerbaijani Embassy 15 July resumed operations in Iran as rapprochement gained momentum.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson speak with Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev, Crisis Group’s South Caucasus experts, about where things stand between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the deadly border clashes in September and whether a peace agreement might be within reach.
A fragile truce concluded on 14 September halted fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left hundreds of soldiers dead. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains what occurred and what needs to happen now to restart the peace process between the two foes.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s UN Director Richard Gowan about the state of the UN as world leaders meet for General Assembly week, and also catches up with Europe and Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker about the latest from Ukraine and violence on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope talk to Crisis Group’s South Caucasus expert Olesya Vartanyan about the conflict in and over Nagorno-Karabakh, a year on from a Russian-brokered ceasefire that put an end to renewed large-scale fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh left many issues unresolved and the front lines volatile. The parties should establish a formal communication channel to address urgent post-war problems, Russian peacekeepers need a clearer mandate and aid agencies must be granted access to the conflict zone.
Russian mediation succeeded in ending the six-week war in Nagorno-Karabakh but left much unresolved, chiefly the region’s future status. If the cessation of hostilities is to become a sustainable peace, the parties should start by cooperating on humanitarian relief and trade before tackling larger questions.
Fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh is decimating towns and cities, displacing tens of thousands and killing scores. Combatants must cease attacks on populated areas and let humanitarian aid through. International actors, notably the UN and OSCE, should send monitors and push harder for a ceasefire.
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