Since a July 2013 military coup, Egypt has sought to reassert state authority undermined by the 2011 uprising at the expense of political inclusion, especially of the Muslim Brotherhood. The resulting polarisation has encouraged mounting political violence from the Islamic State (ISIS) and other violent groups, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula where a low-level insurgency has raged. In the Nile Valley, in 2017, ISIS has targeted the Coptic Christian minority, while al-Qaeda affiliates and other groups tied to the Brotherhood have targeted security forces. Crisis Group is urging the government to be more inclusive and address widespread violations of human and political rights, to better address security and economic challenges.
In this video Riccardo Fabiani discusses how Cairo has turned the crisis somewhat to its advantage, leveraging Western fears that what is happening in Gaza could destabilise Egypt.
New govt sworn in amid economic crisis as Cairo continued to advocate for resolution to crises in Gaza and Sudan.
Newly announced cabinet included personnel changes, kept previous priorities. New govt of PM Madbouly sworn in 3 July with new Defence Minister Abdel Megeed Sakr and FM Badr Abdelatty, alongside new heads of key economic ministries; President Sisi same day appointed Lt. Gen. Fathy Khalifa as new army chief of staff with former army head Osama Askar made presidential adviser. Madbouly 8 July presented govt program which pursues former priorities including preserving national security, promoting economic growth and implementing political reforms suggested by Aug 2023 national dialogue initiative. Amid electricity shortages due to economic crisis, Madbouly 17 July announced rolling blackouts would pause from 21 July until Sept. Meanwhile, rights group Amnesty International 18 July reported security forces detained over 100 people since month began for calling for protests against rising prices and power cuts.
Cairo continued to advocate for steps to address crises in Gaza and Sudan. Abdelatty 18 July met his Jordanian counterpart Safadi in Jordan’s capital Amman; both leaders reiterated rejection of Israeli offensive in Gaza Strip and mass displacement of Palestinians, and stressed harmful regional repercussions of war; Abdelatty 30 July reiterated need for immediate ceasefire during call with U.S. Sec State Blinken. Cairo 6 July hosted conference of Sudanese civil society and political groups, during which Abdelatty repeated call for immediate, sustainable cessation of hostilities; although FM said any solution should involve all Sudanese actors, Sudan’s two main warring parties did not attend.
In other important developments. Egyptian geologist 17 July claimed on social media that Ethiopia had begun new round of filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as govt remained opposed to project. In further sign of deepening relationship, Cairo 17 July hosted Egypt-EU dialogue on migration and investment.
The Egyptian acts are pushed on the one hand by a sense of solidarity with the Palestinian cause but on the other hand as a matter of security.
The tensions between Egypt and Israel on the Gaza border are effectively fuelling tensions between the U.S. and Egypt.
[Egypt] cannot live with the permanent displacement of Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza war’s crippling economic effects and risks of regional war.
Things have been very tense [on Gaza's border with Egypt], but there are limits to how far these tensions can go on a strategic level.
If the war goes the way it’s been going, the border between Egypt and Gaza will come under immense pressure. Reality might have a say then.
From the onset of the Gaza war, Cairo has worried about the risks it creates for Egypt, from refugee flight to economic shocks. Foreign partners should keep working for a ceasefire – the best way to prevent spillover – while pushing Egyptian officials toward reform at home.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Riccardo Fabiani, Michael Hanna and Dareen Khalifa about the Gaza war’s economic and political fallout for Egypt.
The Egyptian economy is under increasing strain, with the Gaza war’s effects adding to the pressure. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group identifies ways the EU can support Egypt in coping with its economic woes.
This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Michael Wahid Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, about the role of Egypt in Sudan’s war and how it might shape future relations between the two neighbouring countries and Cairo’s regional diplomacy.
Egypt faces an economic crisis that risks fuelling unrest. The International Monetary Fund demands reforms in return for loans, while the authorities seek to broaden their base through a much-criticised national dialogue. Foreign partners should cautiously support this balancing act to enhance the country’s stability.
The conflict in Egypt’s Sinai offers insights into U.S. foreign policy priorities. As part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the “War on Terror”, Michael Wahid Hanna argues Cairo has used the jihadist spectre to scare off critics and keep U.S. military aid flowing.
This week on The Horn, Alan and William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, discuss Ethiopia's plans to start filling the massive dam it is building, including the complex dynamics at play, negotiations, and the parties' various concerns.
With rains swelling the Blue Nile, Ethiopia is just weeks away from beginning to fill the massive dam it is building. Egypt and Sudan demand that it not do so without an agreement. All three countries urgently need to make concessions for a deal.
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