Tunisia, home to the first and arguably most successful of the 2011 Arab uprisings, appears to be backsliding in its transition to democracy. In mid-2021, President Kaïs Saïed consolidated powers in the executive through a series of steps widely regarded as unconstitutional. Opposition is growing though the president retains a strong social base. The polarisation could threaten stability, particularly as it intersects with persistent budgetary woes and popular discontent over economic and other inequality. Crisis Group works to help resolve these tensions in a country that remains critical for security in North Africa as a whole.
Along with democratic backsliding, Tunisia is facing an economic crunch, magnified by foreign debt it is struggling to repay. Outside actors should keep pressing the government on human rights, while looking for ways – chiefly, a revised IMF loan – to stave off the worst-case scenarios.
President Saïed set October election date amid deteriorating political climate for polls as authorities arrested several opposition candidates.
President set presidential vote and announced his candidacy. Incumbent Saïed 1 July scheduled presidential election for 6 Oct and 19 July confirmed his own candidacy; Saïed said he was answering country’s “sacred call” to keep up fight toward “national liberation”, raising concern he may intend to forcibly secure election (see below). Earlier, Saïed 5 July called for vigilance against destabilisation attempts in pre-election period. In likely attempt to win public support, president 9 July made new social welfare announcement with 33% increase in allowance for poorest families, affecting 310,ooo beneficiaries. Hundreds of pro-Saïed demonstrators 25 July marched in capital Tunis, as families of political prisoners same day gathered in capital to demand their release.
Govt continued to disqualify and imprison opposition candidates. Prosecutor 12 July banned presidential hopeful Abdellatif Makki, former leader of Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party, from travel and media appearances due to alleged involvement in 2014 death of businessman when Makki was health minister. Authorities next day arrested Sec Gen of An-Nahda Ajmi Ouirimi and two party members, fuelling concerns authorities may attempt to dissolve still-popular movement ahead of election. Authorities 13 July also arrested Yadh Elloumi for allegedly buying sponsorship for runner-up in 2019 presidential election, Nabil Karoui, as campaign official. Court 19 July sentenced Lotfi Mraihi, candidate for left-wing opposition Republican People’s Union, to eight months’ imprisonment and ruled him ineligible to run for office for life on charges of corruption and vote buying during previous candidacy in 2019. Rejected candidate Abir Moussi 29 July began hunger strike to protest her exclusion, while candidate Nizar Chaâri next day announced his campaign manager and member of campaign team had been arrested on accusations of forgery. Rights group Amnesty International 16 July and main opposition coalition National Salvation Front next day denounced crackdown, with latter claiming measures create impossible conditions for holding democratic elections. Meanwhile, court 6 July sentenced Saïed critic and prominent lawyer Sonia Dahmani, arrested early May, to one year in prison for spreading “false news”.
Tunisia is on an authoritarian path and these elections are only meant to confirm the president in power and strengthen his hand.
Italy is trying to reinforce the bilateral relationship to convince Tunisia to continue to collaborate on [irregular migration].
The Europeans feel that they are on the front line of instability in North Africa and in the Mediterranean.
Tunisia’s socio-economic woes could get worse if it defaults on its debt. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group advises the EU to encourage a revised loan deal with the IMF but to pressure Tunis on governance and human rights.
Political tensions fuelled by President Saïed’s power grab and subsequent policies risk sending a crisis-ridden Tunisia over the edge. Saïed should organise a national dialogue and return to a negotiated constitutional order. In response, international partners should offer new economic perspectives for the country.
Tunisia faces multiple economic and social challenges following the suspension of parliament and the dismissal of the prime minister. This current state of emergency could fuel political turmoil and violence in the country. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to maintain bilateral cooperation with Tunisia and offer further economic incentives.
On 25 July, Tunisia’s President Kaïs Saïed invoked the constitution to seize emergency powers after months of crisis. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says compromise between Saïed and his parliamentary opponents remains possible, but so does grave violence.
Despite a marked decline in jihadist attacks in Tunisia since 2016, the government persists with repressive and unfocused counter-terrorism measures. The Tunisian authorities should make criminal justice and security reforms to prevent an upsurge in violence.
Tunisia’s new government and president represent political forces that emerged in late 2019’s elections, stirring up populism, polarisation and tensions. With judicious support from the EU, the new political class should focus on the economy and choose a path of dialogue and administrative reform.
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