Diplomats have struggled to broker negotiations over the disputed territory of Western Sahara since late 2020, when a ceasefire between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front broke down. If it steps up its engagement, Washington may be able to get the ball rolling.
Figures of pro-independence Polisario Front openly challenged leadership; France adopted Moroccan autonomy plan.
Internal divisions within Polisario laid bare. Bachir Moustafa, brother of Polisario Front founder and candidate in latest leadership election in Jan 2023, 7 July publicly called for general congress to “take emergency measures” to save Front from downfall, heavily criticising Polisario leader Brahim Ghali and demanding more intransigence towards Morocco. Main Polisario body did not reply to attack or congress calls. Meanwhile, Oubi Bouchraya, Polisario representative in Geneva, 6 July took to social media to highlight growing tensions and protests in Tindouf refugee camps and denounced Polisario’s security-minded approach to protests, marking first time Polisario official admitted public security issues in camps. Over 100 Polisario fighters 16 July laid down weapons in front of Polisario general secretariat in Rabouni refugee camp in protest at corruption and leadership decisions regarding military appointments, further signalling rising discontent within independence movement.
France adopted Moroccan autonomy plan, shifting Western Sahara stance. In letter to Moroccan King Mohammed VI made public 30 July, French president Macron called Moroccan autonomy plan, which would give Rabat control over Western Sahara’s national security and foreign affairs, “only basis” to solve conflict; Polisario same day condemned move, saying it deprived Sahrawi people of “right to freedom and independence”; move marked notable policy shift and drew anger from Algeria which supports Western Saharan independence (see Algeria). Earlier, outgoing U.S. ambassador to Algeria Elizabeth Moore Aubin 18 July also reaffirmed U.S. support for autonomy plan.
We're seeing a diplomatic war [over Western Sahara], where both sides [Algeria and Morocco] are resorting to anything short of open conflict.
This edition includes entries on Cameroon, South Sudan, Venezuela and Western Sahara, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
On 29 October, the UN Security Council will vote on the UN mission in Western Sahara’s renewal. Following last year’s resumption of hostilities and the appointment of a new envoy, Council members should signal their commitment to relaunching negotiations and an even-handed approach to the conflict.
Hugh Pope is joined by North Africa experts Intissar Fakir and Riccardo Fabiani to ask whether Morocco holds a winning hand in its conflict with the pro-independence Polisario Front in Western Sahara as Europe looks on timidly, wary of direct challenges to the regional power.
The fighting in Western Sahara, which broke out again in November 2020, remains of low intensity. Yet outside powers would be wrong to assume that it will not escalate. With U.S. support, the new UN envoy should pursue confidence-building measures that could facilitate negotiations.
Clashes have broken out in Western Sahara, ending a 30-year ceasefire between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front. Fighting could intensify absent outside help. The UN should fill its empty special envoy post, while the U.S. leads international efforts to restart diplomacy.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood talk with Dahlia Scheindlin and Crisis Group’s North Africa Project Director Riccardo Fabiani about the normalisation of relations between Israel and Morocco and the accompanying U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.
Refugee camps in Tindouf, Algeria, have long been run by the Polisario movement, which seeks an independent state in Western Sahara, also claimed by Morocco. But a new generation of Sahrawi refugees is growing fractious as aid dwindles and diplomatic efforts fail to deliver a settlement.
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