China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea has raised tensions over competing territorial claims and maritime rights. In July 2016, an International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea found in favour of the Philippines on fourteen of fifteen points in its dispute with China, ruling that Beijing’s “nine-dash line” claim is inconsistent with international law. China rejected the decision, but subsequently its relations with the Philippines have warmed. Tensions between littoral states and China remain, however, as do disagreements between Beijing and Washington over freedom of navigation and trade. The risk of clashes is real. Crisis Group seeks to reduce friction and promote shared stewardship of the sea and its natural resources.
Tensions between China and the Philippines are increasing the risk of armed conflict in the South China Sea. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024 – Spring Update, Crisis Group looks at how the EU can support regional diplomacy to mitigate maritime disputes.
Philippines and China signed temporary pact to mitigate growing tensions amid strengthening security ties between Manila and allies.
Temporary agreement reached with Beijing to stem maritime tensions. Manila and Beijing 21 July reached deal to “deescalate situation in South China Sea”. Philippine Foreign Ministry said agreement would not compromise geopolitical positions of either side, but neither party released official text. Deal comes at time of increasing confrontation between sides about territorial delineation, particularly around Second Thomas Shoal. Notably, Manila 9 July deployed BRP Jose Rizal Sabina Shoal after sightings of Chinese vessels near region to mark show of force for sovereignty rights but may fall short because Manila lacks ability to maintain naval presence across contested waters. Shortly after, Russian and Chinese navies 16 July carried out live-fire exercises in South China Sea to strengthen bilateral capacity of responding to “maritime security threats”. Beijing and Manila subsequently disagreed publicly about details of 21 July agreement, with Philippine Foreign Ministry 22 July denying it includes prior notification and “on-site verification” as China’s Foreign Ministry asserted earlier same day. Philippine forces 27 July resupplied BRP Sierra Madre.
Philippines deepened defence cooperation with U.S. and Japan. U.S. Department of Defence 11 July stated Washington is set to approve General Security of Military Information Agreement with Manila to facilitate timely exchange of classified information. U.S. military chair of Joint Chiefs of Staff 16 July inspected selected U.S. military bases, prerequisite for approving new intelligence sharing framework. U.S. and Philippines 21 July completed Marine Aviation Support Activity where U.S. Marines dropped guided bombs on targets near Western Luzon. U.S. 30 July announced $500mn in foreign military aid to Manila during high-level visit. Meanwhile, Japan and Philippines 8 July held “2+2” foreign and defence meeting in Manila to discuss regional security matters, signed Reciprocal Access Agreement that would allow respective militaries to visit each other’s soil, as part of efforts to counter China’s growing aggression in region.
Tensions between Vietnam and China persisted. Vietnam 17 July submitted claim to UN to extend its continental shelf in South China Sea, prompting strong opposition from China.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Amanda Hsiao and Georgi Engelbrecht about rising tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea and the risks of maritime incidents sucking in the U.S., a Philippines ally.
Together with the Philippines, Vietnam is on the front line of maritime disputes with China. The risk of armed confrontation is low but growing. Hanoi should redouble efforts to build confidence, starting with less sensitive issues, and to establish an effective Code of Conduct.
The maritime dispute between China and the Philippines is simmering against the backdrop of strategic competition between Beijing and Washington. To keep tensions below boiling point, Manila should push for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as well as greater regional cooperation.
The disputes in the South China Sea are fundamentally about claims of sovereignty, the broadest of which are staked by Beijing. The Chinese-U.S. rivalry, meanwhile, loads the dissension with geopolitical significance. Both major powers stand to gain by accepting the constraints of international law.
The South China Sea has long been a critical maritime passage, means of supply and trade route that was fought over by many claimants. Today the South China Sea is once again a 21st century flashpoint.
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