As peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue, Baku has opened a checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, the sole road connecting Armenia to the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, raising fears of a new surge in fighting. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts discuss the risks.
Efforts to reinvigorate deadlocked peace talks with Azerbaijan foundered, while tensions along border persisted; relations with West deepened.
Baku accused Yerevan of provocations at border amid faltering peace talks. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 10 July facilitated meeting between his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts on margins of NATO summit in U.S. capital Washington, D.C.; meeting only lasted 30 minutes, however, and led to no announcements or detailed follow-up statements amid reports of opposition to talks from Baku, which wants to maintain bilateral format established after its victory in Nagorno-Karabakh. One week later, PM Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev were due to hold UK-facilitated meeting on 18 July, but talks fell apart at last moment. Baku subsequently started accusing Yerevan of “provocations” along border, including 21 July incident using heavy weapons in Kelbajar district and two incidents late July involving quadcopters in Tovuz and Lachin directions; Armenia denied allegations.
Sides remained at odds on peace treaty. Aliyev 20 July claimed 80-90% of draft peace treaty was ready but reiterated that Baku would only sign document if Armenia removes references to Nagorno-Karabakh in its constitution. With Armenia’s state commission expected to table new provisions by end of 2026, senior Azerbaijani official 21 July suggested sides could sign document outlining basic principles of future treaty as interim measure. Although Yerevan has never publicly rejected idea, it has signalled preference for clarifying provisions on more contentious issues before anything is signed, such as opening of road connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan. Meanwhile, sides late July reportedly finalised demarcation of small section of border, though concerns persisted about future of demarcation process amid stuttering peace talks and disagreement about what maps to use.
In other important developments. European Council 22 July endorsed talks with Armenia on visa liberalisation and provided Yerevan with €10mn in military assistance within framework of European Peace Facility. Armenia and U.S. 15-24 July held joint military drills. Turkish and Armenian special envoys 30 July met at shared border to resume discussions aimed at normalising ties.
Armenia is having problems integrating over 100,000 refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh when Azerbaijan took control of the enclave in September 2023. Yerevan has tried to be generous, but it lacks funds and a long-term plan, leaving the displaced people exposed and facing an uncertain future.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson speak with Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev, Crisis Group’s South Caucasus experts, about where things stand between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the deadly border clashes in September and whether a peace agreement might be within reach.
A fragile truce concluded on 14 September halted fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left hundreds of soldiers dead. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains what occurred and what needs to happen now to restart the peace process between the two foes.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s UN Director Richard Gowan about the state of the UN as world leaders meet for General Assembly week, and also catches up with Europe and Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker about the latest from Ukraine and violence on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
Six months of contacts between Türkiye and Armenia have brought an agreement to move toward opening their shared border and launching direct trade. But Ankara and Yerevan are far apart on many issues. The road ahead will be long.
Turkish and Armenian special envoys will meet in Moscow on 14 January to discuss normalising relations between these long-estranged neighbours. Crisis Group experts Olesya Vartanyan, Nigar Göksel and Zaur Shiriyev unpack how the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 opened the way for talks.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope talk to Crisis Group’s South Caucasus expert Olesya Vartanyan about the conflict in and over Nagorno-Karabakh, a year on from a Russian-brokered ceasefire that put an end to renewed large-scale fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh left many issues unresolved and the front lines volatile. The parties should establish a formal communication channel to address urgent post-war problems, Russian peacekeepers need a clearer mandate and aid agencies must be granted access to the conflict zone.
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