Talks between govt and holdout opposition groups stalled after VP Machar’s party withdrew from initiative, concerns about December election abounded, and violence persisted in several areas.

Machar’s party withdrew from Kenya-led “Tumaini” peace initiative. Talks between govt and several opposition groups who did not sign 2018 peace accord, dubbed Tumaini Initiative, early July continued in Kenyan capital Nairobi; parties 15 July signed protocols on security reforms, humanitarian access and confidence-building measures, among other things. Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) led by VP Machar (which forms part of govt delegation) 16 July withdrew from talks, however, saying initiative undermined 2018 peace deal. Decision brought dialogue to halt, and govt delegation returned to capital Juba for consultations.

Juba remained divided about how to proceed with December general election. Separate dialogue in Juba among 2018 peace deal signatories continued throughout July to clarify electoral process and address other unimplemented provisions of agreement. Tensions mounted between President Kiir’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and SPLM-IO, however, exacerbated by disagreement over Tumaini Initiative. Some fear Kiir will hold election without consensus among parties on process, further undermining peace deal and raising risk of political turbulence. Meanwhile, international actors remained concerned about poll, with U.S. official Elizabeth Campbell 22 July criticising govt’s “lack of progress” toward creating conditions for “genuine and peaceful elections”.

Security situation remained fragile. In Equatoria region, reports late June-early July emerged that rebel group National Salvation Front (NAS) led by Thomas Cirillo was actively recruiting in Western Equatoria State, while John Kenyi Loburon, who defected from NAS late June, reportedly recruited in Central Equatoria State; divisions within NAS, including risk of clashes between Cirillo’s and Loburon’s groups, could fuel instability in region. In Jonglei State (Greater Upper Nile region), clashes between Duk County and Twic East County communities 19 July killed at least nine. Meanwhile, Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces made gains near South Sudanese border, raising concerns of spillover (see Sudan).

Economy continued to deteriorate. South Sudan’s main oil pipeline through Sudan remained in disrepair, shrinking govt revenues and fuelling inflation. Parliament 26 July summoned finance minister to explain delays in civil servants’ salaries.

Fighting between army (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) persisted in multiple states, U.S. sought to revive peace efforts, and array of Sudanese actors gathered for political dialogues.

In east, RSF advance into Sennar state slowed as its forces eyed White Nile state. RSF early July gained more ground in Sennar, seizing military bases in al-Mazmoum, al-Suki, Wad al-Neiyal and al-Dinder towns, after its late-June capture of state capital, Sinja, and strategic Jebel Moya mountains. Fighting late July began to subside, however, primarily due to seasonal rains complicating military movements. Meanwhile, RSF attacked multiple locations in neighbouring White Nile state, including 29 July drone attack on army barracks in state capital, Rabak, indicating White Nile may be paramilitary’s next target. Hostilities persisted in El Gezira and Blue Nile states, and in and around capital Khartoum.

Clashes continued in western North Darfur and central West Kordofan states. RSF’s siege of North Darfur capital, El Fasher, persisted as battles raged across state; all sides targeted civilians allegedly supporting their opponents, threatening to exacerbate intercommunal conflict. Humanitarian crisis remained dire, with World Health Organization official 16 July saying fighting had made access to El Fasher “impossible”. In West Kordofan, RSF 3 July seized strategic town of al-Meiram near South Sudanese border as it consolidated control over almost entire state except Babanussa city. 

U.S. called for ceasefire talks. U.S. 23 July invited warring parties to Switzerland in Aug in effort to reinvigorate peace talks. RSF next day confirmed it would attend; Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s govt in Port Sudan 30 July signalled possible participation, though it remains unclear whether SAF will attend given Burhan’s later statements to his soldiers contradicting announcement. Burhan 31 July survived apparent assassination attempt. Meanwhile, Ethiopian PM Abiy 9 July travelled to Port Sudan city and met with Burhan to discuss “sustainable solutions for Sudan’s stability”.

Two political dialogues among Sudanese actors held. Cairo 6 June convened Sudanese civil society and political groups in attempt to achieve unified stance on resolving conflict. AU 10-15 July held preparatory meeting of Inter-Sudanese Political Dialogue with around 20 political and civil society groups in Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa; participants agreed to hold dialogue conference following ceasefire and establish interim caretaker govt. 

Jihadist violence continued in north with assault on base that reportedly killed dozen troops.

Dozens of suspected al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) insurgents 20 July attacked military outpost in Kpinkankandi village near Burkina Faso border, Savanes region, reportedly killing at least 12 soldiers and holding base for several hours; 40 militants reportedly killed during attack. Assault came after suspected JNIM fighters 21 June killed two soldiers and wounded two others in attack on army patrol in Kpentendjoaga village and same day killed four civilians in Bamone village, both Savanes region.

Despite series of arrests of officials for financial misconduct, protesters took to street to denounce corruption among lawmakers; military denied support toward M23 rebel group in DR Congo. 

Anti-corruption demonstrations erupted despite govt’s moves against graft. Authorities 18 July arrested Trade Ministry official Geraldine Ssali over allegations of financial mismanagement and of conspiring with MPs to steal compensation funds; various local officials also arrested during month. Eager to appear uncompromising, President Museveni 11 July requested courts deny bail to corrupt officials. Public remained largely unimpressed, however, and civil society activists 23 July marched to parliament in capital Kampala to denounce corruption among lawmakers, defying ban on protest. Police reportedly arrested three organisers and dozens of protesters. Protests 25 July resumed in Kampala; police next day said they had arrested 104 demonstrators during week, charging 100 with public order offences as U.S. urged govt to investigate allegations that some detainees had been assaulted. Meanwhile, court 29 July charged 36 opposition supporters with terrorism-related offences after they were detained when attending training course in Kenya; opposition activists alleged detainees physically abused.

Govt’s alleged support for M23 rebels in DR Congo continued to stir uproar. After UN report made public early July alleged Kampala’s support for M23 rebel group in DR Congo, military 10 July called claim “laughable” and “baseless”; however Congolese govt 19 July summoned Uganda’s chargé d’affaires over issue, while M23 5 July confirmed presence of some M23 commanders and representatives in Uganda, but denied they were using country as base. Meanwhile, Kampala 22 July reportedly hosted meeting between M23 and coordinator of Congolese govt disarmament program (see DR Congo).

In important international developments. Ugandan army 2 July handed over Bariire base to Somali army as part of AU mission drawdown but Ugandan troops remained target of Al-Shabaab as roadside bomb 8 July killed officer and wounded six others in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region. 

Ahead of annual regional SADC summit, authorities intensified repression against civil society and political opposition. 

Govt intensified repression of opponents and critical voices. Ahead of 17 Aug southern African regional body SADC summit in capital Harare, authorities cracked down on opposition, including with wave of arrests and detentions. High court 17 July denied bail to over 70 opposition party Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) activists including interim party leader Jameson Timba; group charged in June with intent to promote public violence. Armed police 24 July reportedly raided National Students Union meeting in Harare, taking dozens into custody including union leader; union members reported security forces beat some students, causing injuries, and forced others to pay fines to secure release; police alleged that they were called in to “maintain law and order” after violent altercations broke out. Police 31 July arrested and detained 13 CCC party members, including MP John Houghton, in Kariba town, Mashonaland West province, for staging peaceful demonstration; security forces same day detained four human rights activists, forcibly removing them from plane they had boarded at Harare airport; Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights alleged activists were detained “incommunicado” for eight hours and said one was tortured. Earlier, police 3 July arrested, and later released without charge, six people associated with local media organisation Community Voices Zimbabwe during meeting in Gokwe town, Midlands province. Human rights organisations including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch decried increased repression of dissenting voices in build up to SADC meeting and called on body to speak out. Amid ruling ZANU-PF party’s unease over potential anti-govt protests at summit, President Mnangagwa 24 July called for “peace and stability” around event. 

In another important development. High court 22 July exonerated opposition leader Job Sikhala, clearing him of two criminal charges of inciting public violence and publishing falsehoods, for which he spent nearly 600 days in pre-trial detention.

Tensions with Pakistan remained elevated amid cross-border attacks from militants; authorities sought to clamp down on IS-KP activity.

Authorities targeted IS-KP, implemented poppy eradication campaign. Taliban forces 7 July killed Zakir, senior Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) commander in Nangarhar province; 13 July Taliban raided IS-KP hideout in capital Kabul and arrested several suspects for allegedly planning attack during Ashura, day of commemoration held by Shia Muslims. Amid ongoing poppy eradication campaign, authorities 17-23 July arrested at least seven people during narcotic raids in Badakhshan province, leading to tensions with local communities. 

Relations with Pakistan remained strained. UN 10 July released document labelling Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) “largest terrorist group” in Afghanistan. Report stated that group received increased support from Taliban authorities to conduct cross-border attacks against Pakistan. It blamed Taliban authorities for being “unable or unwilling” to curb TTP activities whose attacks have increased in recent years. Pakistan Foreign Ministry 17 July said it summoned senior Afghan diplomat in Islamabad after suicide bombing attack in Pakistan’s Bannu city killed eight soldiers two days before; Pakistan accused Afghanistan-based TTP’s Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group for violence, demanded Kabul to take “immediate, robust, and effective action” against attackers. Taliban authorities did not respond immediately. Pakistan 21 July reopened Chaman border crossing with Afghanistan after nine months of closure. 

Iran deported over 2,000 Afghan migrants. Amid rising anti-Afghan sentiments, local residents 19 July in Iran’s Khur city torched homes of several Afghans following killing of Iranian man by alleged Afghan teenager; Iran same day sent back 2,212 migrants to Afghanistan.

In other important developments. Central Asian delegations and investors 3 July attended Afghanistan-Uzbekistan Trade Coordination Forum to explore business opportunities around Afghanistan. Taliban Emir 6 July made another round of changes to cabinet and replaced central bank governor, mines and petroleum minister. Authorities early July held series of meetings with Shia leaders to impose restrictions on Shia Ashura celebrations, including by restricting gatherings to places of worship, and prohibiting public displays such as flags.

Violent crackdown on student protests left at least 200 killed and thousands injured; Myanmar’s conflict fuelled further instability in refugee camps. 

Anti-government protests turned deadly, with over 200 killed. Public university students 1 July launched protests against High Court ruling which reinstated quotas for entry level govt jobs, including 30% for children and grandchildren of “freedom fighters” from 1971 Liberation War. Protests turned violent after PM Sheikh Hasina 14 July called protesters “razakars”, derogatory term for collaborators with Pakistani military in 1971 war; notably, pro-govt supporters from Chhatra League and police next day used deadly violence against protesters, killing six people. As more protesters took to streets, violence spread across country and took a turn for the worse on 18 July as police attacked demonstrators, killing dozens of mainly young men and protesters vandalised govt buildings and metro stations in capital Dhaka; authorities subsequently switched off internet nationwide and deployed military, giving shoot-on-sight orders. Supreme Court 21 July scaled back quotas to 7% and student leaders 22 July announced pause. Situation remained stable by end of month, with curfew and internet restrictions relaxed and businesses resuming operations; more than 6,000 have reportedly been arrested nationwide, many from opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami. Police by end of month continued to break up small demonstrations.     

Myanmar’s developments created instability at border. As Arakan Army (AA) inched closer to capturing Rakhine state’s Maungdaw city, regime personnel, civilians, and Rohingya armed groups sought refuge in Bangladesh; Bangladeshi authorities who had previously repatriated junta personnel and their family members back to Myanmar 14 July changed course, refusing two boats carrying 60 Myanmar regime personnel. FM Hasan Mahmud 12 July discussed with regime counterpart Than Swe proposal to start Rohingya repatriation as soon as possible. 

Rohingya refugee camps saw more clashes. Refugee camps remained restive with renewed clashes between Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), which left at least six people killed in first ten days of July. Increase is likely related to developments in Rakhine state as ARSA and RSO, who are fighting alongside Myanmar’s military, returned to camps. 

China maintained naval activities around disputed waters, while rival maritime exercises strained Japan-China relations. 

Beijing maintained maritime presence around disputed waters. Three Chinese Coast Guard ships 2-4 July entered Japan’s 12-mile territorial limit near disputed area off Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, while in pursuit of Japanese fishing boats; Chinese Coast Guard Bureau claimed fishers “illegally” entered waters, warned they would continue to protect their jurisdiction through enforcement activities. In two further incidents, two Chinese Coast Guard vessels repeatedly 10-11 July entered disputed waters near Ootsuri Island, and again, five days later, near Taisho. Tokyo 5 July confirmed presence of Chinese-installed buoy in high seas over Japan’s southern continental shelf, Pacific Ocean. As of 29 July, 100 Chinese vessels had been present in Japanese contiguous waters for 25 days and 18 vessels had stayed in Japanese territorial waters for seven days during month.

China-Russia held joint military patrol, Japan-Taiwan conducted joint drill. Commencing their fourth joint annual Asia-Pacific maritime patrol, Russian and Chinese combined flotilla 4-5 July transited Japan’s Osumi Strait. Japanese warship 4 July sailed into Chinese waters off eastern Zhejiang province, near Taiwan, ignoring Chinese no-sail zone for live-fire drill; Beijing conveyed serious concerns, leading to Japanese Defence Ministry investigation into warship captain and crew. Taiwan and Japan coast guards 18 July conducted joint drill in Japan’s Boso Peninsula, Chiba prefecture, and in waters near Izu Oshima; in protest, Chinese Foreign Ministry urged Japan to “stop disrupting cross-strait peace and stability and China-Japan relations”. Japan 12 July released defence white paper saying that “the possibility of ‘serious situation’ akin to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine occurring in East Asia cannot be ruled out”, highlighting fears of conflict over Taiwan.

Diplomatic channels remained open. Japan and Chinese Vice Foreign Ministers 22 July convened in Tokyo for first strategic dialogue in four years.

Manipur ethnic conflict persisted, security forces killed at least 22 suspected Maoists in centre, and India-China border tensions continued.

Violence persisted in Manipur. PM Modi 2 July addressed Manipur conflict at lower house of parliament for first time in almost a year, underlining govt’s efforts to ensure return to peace and calling for cooperation with opposition. In Manipur’s Jiribam district, suspected Kuki militants 6 July allegedly killed Meitei man, triggering clashes and violence, fuelling displacement to Assam state; 14 July killed security personnel and injured two. In Assam’s Cachar district, authorities 16 July killed three Hmar youths whom they accused of being militants; Hmar Students’ Association next day claimed those deceased were “village volunteers” defending community from Meitei militants, called for investigation. In Manipur’s Imphal East district, Kangleipak Communist Party militants 20 July shot down Meitei man. 

Anti-Maoist operations continued. In Chhattisgarh’s Narayanpur district, security forces 2 July killed five militants during operation. Security forces 8 July killed Maoist in Madhya Pradesh’s Balaghat district; 9 July shot down militant in Chhattisgarh’s Kanker district. In Maharashtra’s Gadchiroli district, security forces 17 July killed 12 militants during operation, which also left two security personnel injured. In Chhattisgarh’s Bijapur district, IED blast on same day killed two security personnel and injured four others; security forces 19 July shot down Maoist. Authorities 20 July killed suspected Maoist in Chhattisgarh’s Sukma district; 25 July shot dead another suspected Maoist in Telangana state.

India-China border relations remained tense. Indian FM Jaishankar 4 July met Chinese counterpart at Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit; both agreed to intensify talks to resolve border issues, noting that prolongation of current situation is not in interests of either side; gap in readouts, however, indicates that normalcy in bilateral ties will likely remain elusive. Reuters 9 July reported India was planning to invest $1bn in construction of 12 hydropower stations in north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, claimed by China to be South Tibet; Chinese Foreign Ministry 10 July described project “illegal and invalid”, said “South Tibet is China’s territory”. Indian and Chinese FMs 25 July met at ASEAN-related meetings in Laos, stressed importance to resolve border issue at Line of Actual Control.

Militants ramped up attacks against security personnel in Jammu, driving instability, while central govt expanded its policing and public order powers in Jammu and Kashmir. 

Militant attacks continued to drive insecurity. Militants drove attacks against security personnel in Jammu. Notably, militants 7 July attacked security post in Rajouri district and injured one soldier; 8 July ambushed and killed five security forces personnel on hill tract in Kathua district; and 15 July, ambushed and killed five security forces personnel during security operation in Doda district. Lesser-known militant group, Kashmir Tigers, believed to be front for Jaish-e-Muhammad, took responsibility for attacks on 8 and 15 July. In Kashmir region, different but simultaneous security operations 6-7 July in Kulgam district killed six militants and two soldiers. In Kupwara district, security forces 14 July killed three militants allegedly infiltrating from Pakistan; 23 July killed alleged militant during operation which also killed one soldier, 27 July killed alleged Pakistani intruder, leaving one soldier dead and five injured. Though militant attacks are generally lower in Jammu than in Kashmir, bold nature of attacks and ambushes in Jammu caused serious concern. Security forces ramped up their presence while militants reportedly drew in soldiers with fake intel alerts and carried out pinpointed ambushes. Lack of intelligence from local populations, such as nomadic tribe of Gujjars who are unhappy with govt, has become crucial factor.

Govt expanded powers of Lieutenant Governor over policing and public order. In anticipation of regional election announcement, home affairs ministry 13 July amended and expanded powers of Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) to give appointee sole discretion over policing and public order. Opposition Congress party immediately criticised decision saying it would undermine state govt’s executive power. Former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah also criticised move and sought “restoration of full, undiluted statehood for J&K [as] prerequisite for [upcoming] elections”. 

In other important developments. Chief cleric, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq 19 July called on judges of J&K and Ladakh High Court to intervene against unjust arrests of senior lawyers; move follows High Court’s recognition of pro-govt Kashmir Advocates Association as new lawyers’ body on 29 June.