Indian authorities speak confidently of a new era in the region of Jammu and Kashmir, for decades a hotbed of separatism, insurgency and tensions with neighbouring Pakistan. But with New Delhi stalling on promised elections, local frustration continues to fuel unrest.
Militants ramped up attacks against security personnel in Jammu, driving instability, while central govt expanded its policing and public order powers in Jammu and Kashmir.
Militant attacks continued to drive insecurity. Militants drove attacks against security personnel in Jammu. Notably, militants 7 July attacked security post in Rajouri district and injured one soldier; 8 July ambushed and killed five security forces personnel on hill tract in Kathua district; and 15 July, ambushed and killed five security forces personnel during security operation in Doda district. Lesser-known militant group, Kashmir Tigers, believed to be front for Jaish-e-Muhammad, took responsibility for attacks on 8 and 15 July. In Kashmir region, different but simultaneous security operations 6-7 July in Kulgam district killed six militants and two soldiers. In Kupwara district, security forces 14 July killed three militants allegedly infiltrating from Pakistan; 23 July killed alleged militant during operation which also killed one soldier, 27 July killed alleged Pakistani intruder, leaving one soldier dead and five injured. Though militant attacks are generally lower in Jammu than in Kashmir, bold nature of attacks and ambushes in Jammu caused serious concern. Security forces ramped up their presence while militants reportedly drew in soldiers with fake intel alerts and carried out pinpointed ambushes. Lack of intelligence from local populations, such as nomadic tribe of Gujjars who are unhappy with govt, has become crucial factor.
Govt expanded powers of Lieutenant Governor over policing and public order. In anticipation of regional election announcement, home affairs ministry 13 July amended and expanded powers of Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) to give appointee sole discretion over policing and public order. Opposition Congress party immediately criticised decision saying it would undermine state govt’s executive power. Former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah also criticised move and sought “restoration of full, undiluted statehood for J&K [as] prerequisite for [upcoming] elections”.
In other important developments. Chief cleric, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq 19 July called on judges of J&K and Ladakh High Court to intervene against unjust arrests of senior lawyers; move follows High Court’s recognition of pro-govt Kashmir Advocates Association as new lawyers’ body on 29 June.
Militants in Indian-administered Kashmir have increased the targeted killing of Hindus, who are a small minority in the region, spreading panic among them. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi draws upon interviews with residents to explore the implications of this violence.
Crisis Group’s Watch List identifies ten countries or regions at risk of deadly conflict or escalation thereof in 2022. In these places, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could enhance prospects for peace and stability.
As the decades-old conflict continues in Kashmir, with incidents occurring every week, dangerous tensions make future violence possible. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to push for India and Pakistan to rebuild mutual respect and peaceful relations by resuming formal bilateral ties and re-engaging with Kashmiri political leaders.
One year ago, India rescinded constitutional provisions giving special status to Jammu and Kashmir, the disputed territory also claimed by Pakistan. Kashmiri militancy is growing, often with Pakistani encouragement. Allies should urge New Delhi to relax its clampdown and Islamabad to stop backing jihadist proxies.
Reciprocal airstrikes by India and Pakistan have been accompanied by shelling, troop reinforcements and small arms fire. In this Q&A calling for restraint between the nuclear-armed neighbours, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director Laurel Miller notes that the airspace violations alone were the worst for 50 years.
A 14 February suicide attack by Pakistan-based militants was their bloodiest strike in Indian-administered Kashmir in over three decades. In this Q&A, our Asia Program Director Laurel Miller warns that even a limited Indian retaliatory strike could spark a sharp escalation in conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
Their recent dialogue process provides the best chance yet for bilateral peace and regional stability, but Pakistan and India must still overcome serious mistrust among hardliners in their security elites.
Even if India and Pakistan appear willing to allow more interaction across the Line of Control (LOC) that separates the parts of Kashmir they administer, any Kashmir-based dialogue will fail if they do not put its inhabitants first.
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