Police arrested and charged main opposition party interim leader and dozens of supporters; President Mnangagwa’s remarks sparked diplomatic spat with Zambia.

Police arrested opposition members at gathering. Police 16 June arrested at least 80 youth members of opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), including interim party leader Jameson Timba, who gathered at Timba’s private residence in capital Harare; authorities next day charged 77 detainees with “gathering with intent to promote public violence and disorderly conduct”; as detainees appeared in court 18 June, Tinashe Chinopfukutwa from Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights reported his clients had been abused upon arrest. Harare court 27 June denied bail to defendants, as police reportedly beat dozens and arrested several CCC supporters protesting outside. Rights group Amnesty International 19 June called for “immediate release” of detainees and investigations into allegations of torture. 

Mnangagwa railed against neighbours in leaked video, causing diplomatic spat. Video emerged of Mnangagwa accusing Zambia and Malawi of colluding with U.S. “both in terms of security and in terms of financial support” to isolate govt, and asking Russian President Vladimir Putin for support including in defence matters; meeting between both leaders took place 13 June on sidelines of St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Zambian FM Haimbe 20 June rejected suggestions as “unwarranted attacks” and called on AU and Southern African regional body SADC to mediate talks with Mnangagwa’s govt; U.S. 27 June said claims it was militarising Zambia “absolutely false”

Taliban authorities prepared late-June high-level meeting on Afghanistan, third such international meeting convened under UN auspices; attacks by armed groups persisted.

Taliban authorities engaged in regional and international diplomacy. Taliban spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, 30 June led Afghan delegation to two-day UN-sponsored meeting on Afghanistan held in Doha, Qatar, making it de facto authority’s first participation in third such international meeting which brings envoys from some 22 countries. Exclusion of Afghan women, civil society and non-Taliban stakeholders during this round sparked public criticism with calls by some activists for boycott of the meeting unless representation is widened. UN Special Representative for Afghanistan Roza Otunbayeva, 21 June confirmed Afghan women would not be included but insisted women’s rights would be discussed; also said UN would meet Afghan civil society actors before and after Doha meeting. Mujahid 19 June critiqued UN’s report on women’s rights violations in Afghanistan, calling it biased for “attempting to tarnish perceptions ahead of the upcoming Doha meeting”. Previously, Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, 4 June undertook first publicised foreign visit and met UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. UN Security Council 5 June approved travel ban exemptions for four senior Taliban members, including Haqqani, to perform Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. 

Security situation remained volatile. Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) 3 June claimed responsibility for assassination of Taliban commander in Ghor province (West), signalling expansion into new province. Taliban authorities 1 June claimed arrest of IS-KP members allegedly responsible for attacks against Shia community in Herat. National Resistance Forces (NRF) commander 11 June published video claiming to have returned to Afghanistan to continue struggle against Taliban; NRF 25 June claimed that it killed six Taliban members in two attacks in capital Kabul. UN 21 June reported ongoing anti-Taliban attacks in past three months.

Conflict in Myanmar’s northern Rakhine state continued to drive unrest in Bangladesh’s Rohingya refugee camps as civilians caught in crossfire fled, searching for refuge.

Rohingyas sought to leave Myanmar as fighting in Northern Rakhine intensified. Arakan Army 16 June warned “all residents to evacuate” Maungdaw, predominantly Rohingya town in Rakhine state. With thousands of civilians believed to be caught in violence, Bangladesh’s commissioner for refugees 22 June said “…our stand is that not a single more Rohingya will enter our land”; at UN Human Rights Council Bangladesh 18 June reiterated Rohingya repatriation was “only durable solution” to forced displacement. Despite govt pledges, rising number of Rohingyas continued to find ways across, either by boat or land. Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan 20 June warned Myanmar and AA against cross-fire, threatening retaliation if cross-border shooting persisted. Myanmar 12 June had moved two military ships into Naf River close to Bangladesh territory; Bangladesh 6-14 June suspended vessel movement between Teknaf and St Martin’s Island due to fighting. 

Situation in Rohingya refugee camps remained tense but armed group recruitment slowed. Three Rohingya refugees 10 June died after clashes between Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA); Rapid Action Battalion 10-13 June arrested six ARSA members including two commanders. RSO forced recruitment in the camps declined significantly from late May, likely due to international pressure on govt and pushback from refugees. Bangladesh 9 June repatriated 134 Myanmar security forces as Myanmar repatriated 45 Bangladeshis. 

Opposition announced major reshuffle, final voting of district chairs completed. Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) 15 June reorganised 39 executive positions and dissolved multiple city committees, widely seen as unilateral move by chairman Tarique Rahman to consolidate power within party. Election Commission 5 June completed final round voting to elect district chairs; low voter turnout of just 34% was attributed to BNP boycott; despite ruling Awami League’s directive, 77% of winning chairs were relatives or associates of sitting AL lawmakers. 

In other important developments. PM Hasina 21-22 June visited India calling it “short but very fruitful”. Police 12 June recovered body of alleged Kuki-Chin National Front (KNF) member killed in combat. 

China continued maritime activity in East China Sea, while U.S. and Japan sought to further bolster defence ties. 

Beijing’s maritime activity around disputed areas persisted. As of 26 June, Japan reported 104 Chinese vessels entering Japan’s contiguous zone during month. Tokyo 7 June identified four Chinese Coast Guard vessels, reportedly armed with cannons, in Japan’s territorial sea near disputed area off Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. In rare occurrence, Chinese coast guard vessels entered into the territorial sea around the disputed islands for five days in a row 20-24 June. Netherlands’ defence ministry 8 June accused Chinese fighter jets of approaching Dutch navy frigate and helicopter in manner that “caused a potentially unsafe situation” in East China Sea; Beijing 11 June rejected accusations.

U.S. and Japan deepened defence ties. U.S. 7-18 June held biennial military exercise near Guam and Palau islands, Philippine Sea, including Japan for first time. Earlier, U.S., South Korean and Japanese coastguards 6 June engaged in first joint drill in Sea of Japan off Tango Peninsula. Japan and U.S. week of 10 June agreed to establish working groups on joint production of air defence missiles, warship and aircraft repairs and supply chain resiliency; 11 June held first such meeting on repair and maintenance of U.S. ships. Japan and U.S. officials 13-14 June discussed extended deterrence at Dialogue in Wyoming, U.S., focusing on threats from China’s and North Korea’s nuclear build-up and military cooperation with Russia. 

In other important developments. Japan 21 June imposed sanctions on companies in India, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for alleged support of Russia’s war in Ukraine; including Chinese firms for first time for such motive.

PM Modi won relative majority in Parliament, ethnic violence spread to Manipur’s Jiribam district, anti-Maoist operations continued in centre.

Modi won elections without outright majority. Modi 9 June sworn in as PM for third term after Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 240 out of 543 parliamentary seats, 63 fewer than in 2019. With results below majority mark of 272, Modi 7 June forced to form coalition with 14 regional allies under National Democratic Alliance umbrella, now in control of 293 seats. Opposition Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance won 232 seats, unexpectedly high score given pro-govt political and media landscape during campaign; main opposition party of alliance, Indian National Congress, secured 99 seats, almost doubling previous share.

Violence in Manipur ran high in Jiribam district. After Meitei farmer was found dead on 6 June, under suspicious circumstances, ethnic tensions and violence rose in Jiribam, which had so far been spared by violence. Notably, suspected militants 8 June set fire on police outpost and houses, displacing 2,000 people who sought refuge in Assam state; suspected Kuki militants 10 June ambushed police convoy on way to Jiribam, injuring one security force personnel, reportedly set fire to 30 houses and two police checkposts. In high-level security meeting, Union Home Minister Amit Shah 17 June said govt would talk to both Meiteis and Kuki-zo “to bridge the ethnic divide at the earliest”. Thousands Kuki-Zo 24 June held rallies in hill districts to call for end to ethnic violence and creation of “Union territory”.

Security forces continued anti-Maoist operations in centre. In Chhattisgarh’s Bijapur district, bombs planted by Maoist 2 and 5 June injured two. In Narayanpur district, security forces 7 June shot down seven Maoists during operation; 15 June killed eight Maoists during five-day operation, which also left security personnel dead. In Jharkhand state’s West Singhbhum district, security forces 17 June killed five Maoists. In Chhattisgarh’s Sukma district, IED detonated by Maoists 23 June killed two security forces.

India-China relations remained under stress. Modi 7 June expressed desire to strengthen ties with Taiwan, after Taiwan President congratulated BJP leader on election victory; comments triggered strong diplomatic reaction from Beijing.

Poll results confirmed opposition candidates secured victory in Kashmir valley constituencies, authorities continued to misuse anti-terror laws, militant attacks and counterinsurgency operations persisted.

Muslim-majority Kashmir valley rejected ruling party’s proxy candidates. Official results shared 4 June indicated Ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won two seats in Hindu-majority constituencies of Udhampur and Jammu. Meanwhile, in Muslim-majority Kashmir valley, opposition party National Conference (NC) secured two seats; all BJP-backed candidates lost, as did Mehbooba Mufti and Omar Abdullah, two former chief ministers from People’s Democratic Party and NC, respectively; in Baramulla constituency, people elected jailed political leader Abdul Rashid Sheikh, previously arrested in 2019 on terror-funding charges; if Sheikh is convicted, he will lose parliamentary seat and new polls will be held.

Authorities used anti-terror laws to stifle dissent. J&K administration 8 June dismissed without formal investigation four govt employees “for their involvement in anti-national activities”. Authorities 14 June charged under anti-terror law novelist Arundhati Roy and former professor from Kashmir Sheikh Shaukat Hussain for public comments made at 2010 event, seen as promoting Kashmiri separatism. Kashmiri political parties 15 June condemned use of anti-terror laws to supress dissent and criminalise free speech; 200 Indian academics, activists and journalists on around 23 June published letter demanding govt to reverse decision.

Militants launched major attack as security operations continued. In Jammu’s Reasi district, suspected militants 9 June attacked bus carrying Hindu pilgrims, killing nine and injuring more than 30 people; police 19 June claimed to arrest man who provided logistical support to militants. In Jammu’s Doda district, militants 11 June attacked security check post, wounding six people, including five security forces personnel and special police officer; during operation, militants 12 June injured another security personnel. In South Kashmir’s Pulwama district, security forces 3 June killed two alleged militants of Pakistani jihadist Lashkar-e-Taiba organisation. In Kathua district, Jammu region, security forces 11-12 June killed two militants, soldier died during operation. In Baramulla district, security forces 19 June killed two militants during operation; 22-23 June shot down suspected militant near Line of Control. Security forces 26 June also killed three militants in Doda district, Jammu region, leaving one policeman injured. 

Russian President conducted first state visit to North Korea, signalling strengthened security partnership; in response, Seoul issued strong condemnations, including threats to arm Ukraine. 

Russia and North Korea entered new strategic partnership. Russian President Putin 18-19 June paid “friendly state visit” to Pyongyang for first time in 24 years; Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un 19 June signed new bilateral treaty to strengthen “defence capabilities” and promote science and technology cooperation; leaders signed mutual defence article binding both parties to “provide military and other assistance immediately using all available means” should either party be “attacked and finds itself in a state of war”, in accordance with Article 51 of UN Charter and consistent with both countries’ laws; observers raised alarm over possible violations of UN Security Council resolutions by expansion of alleged North Korean weapons transfers to bolster Russian war in Ukraine, and transfers of Russian military technologies to North Korea. 

Seoul responded to Russian-North Korea treaty with threats to arm Ukraine. South Korea 20 June condemned new Russian-North Korea treaty, insisting that it threatens their security and violates UN Security Council resolutions; Seoul warned that it would consider sending arms directly to Ukraine in contravention of its long-standing position of not supplying weapons to countries actively engaged in conflict. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol 24 June called for “robust security readiness” during meeting of senior secretaries. 

Tensions rose at border as sides used loudspeakers, balloons and other means to show protest. Seoul 9 June resumed broadcasting international news and K-pop via loudspeakers on inter-Korean border; move in retaliation to North Korea floating south 1,000 balloons filled with trash and manure in May. Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader 10 June warned loudspeakers could spark “very dangerous situation” and risked provoking “crisis of confrontation”. After South Korea detected two separate incursions of North Korean troops crossing Military Demarcation Line, a third saw 20-30 North Korean soldiers 18 June cross Military Demarcation Line, retreating after South Korean military fired warning shots; incidents mark pattern of behaviour that implies potential desire to slowly escalate.

Arakan Army (AA) expanded control in west, fuelling displacement, while ethnic armed groups and regime continued hostilities in north and south west. 

In west, AA continued to make battlefield progress. AA rebels 6 June escalated attacks against last regime positions in northern Rakhine state, claiming capture of key military base in Maungdaw township; AA 16 June ordered residents to leave Maungdaw town after it claimed seizure of nearly all military posts in township. Local media 23 June reported that AA had seized key regime base in Ann township vital for defence of its Western Regional Command headquarters. Further south, local sources 24 June reported AA captured Thandwe Airport and Ngapali beach resort along with 132 regime soldiers, 47 policemen and their families. Meanwhile, regime forces 11 June ordered residents to leave as they attempted to secure outskirts of Rakhine capital, Sittwe; UN Human Rights chief 18 June called military response “indiscriminate”, said displaced Rohingya communities had “nowhere to flee”. UN Food Program 25 June denounced burning and looting of its food warehouses in Rakhine.

In north, Kachin Independence Army (KIA) clashed with regime. KIA and regime forces 4 June renewed fighting near Momeik town in northern Shan state forcing 300 people to flee; KIA continued its push through eastern parts of Kachin State, seizing Sadon town on 11 June. While southern Kachin State increasingly comes under KIA control, it is facing more pushback across border in northern Shan State from other ethnic armed groups. 

In south east, Karen forces braced for tough fight. Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) prepared to defend Thingan Nyi Naung village from regime convoy attempting to cross Dawna Mountain range. KNLA has signalled its determination to keep control of strategic village despite its loss of nearby border trade town of Myawaddy. Meanwhile, regime-aligned Kayin National Army (formerly, Kayin State Border Guard Force) is in firm control of Myawaddy.

In other important developments. Regime forces 17 June arrested 13 members of Yangon-based underground group for allegedly planning to attack regime leader, Min Aung Hlaing, during 8 June ceremony for new bridge. Around 1,400 retired personnel under Reserve Forces Law, 1 June began reporting for duty.

President Macron suspended electoral reform that triggered deadly unrest in May, but tensions remained high as authorities began transferring detained independence leaders to metropolitan France. 

Unrest sparked by France’s proposed voting reforms early June subsided somewhat, although pro-independence militant 7 June died from injuries sustained 3 June during clashes with security forces near capital Nouméa, bringing death toll since riots started in May to nine. Road barricades also persisted in Nouméa with pro-independence militants vowing to remain mobilised until reforms are dropped. President Macron 12 June announced suspension of electoral reform bill in light of snap parliamentary polls in France, also citing need to “give full strength to dialogue on the ground and the return to order”. Authorities reopened international airport 17 June after month-long closure, but extended curfew, bans on carrying weapons, and military support to police. Security forces 19 June took into custody 11 people on allegations of instigating unrest and participating in violence, including pro-independence leader and protest movement coordinator Christian Tein; Nouméa court 22 June announced transfer of Tein and six other pro-independence militants to metropolitan France for pre-trial detention, leading to renewed unrest and violence, including outside Nouméa. Authorities reported unrest 23-24 June throughout New Caledonia’s mainland and on Pines and Mare islands, including “attacks on the police, arson and roadblocks”; security forces arrested at least 38 people. Authorities 28 June extended curfew until 8 July, and prohibited gatherings over 29-30 June election weekend as latest bout of violence fuelled fears of unrest spreading further. 

Authorities unveiled new security plan while insecurity in regions bordering Afghanistan and internal political crisis continued. 

Relations with Afghanistan remained tense. Amid mounting tensions with Kabul, Pakistan 22 June announced new anti-terrorism plan, Operation Azm-i-Istekham (Resolve for Security) to counter extremism and militancy in the country. After backlash from Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pashtun nationalist parties, PM Shahbaz Sharif 24 June claimed operation was “erroneously misunderstood” clarifying that it was not all-out operation that would lead to the massive displacement of people in conflict zones. At UN 18 June Pakistan called for “concerted effort” to recover weapons from militant groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Normalcy returned to Chaman district in Balochistan after protests 7 June against mandatory visa regime for cross-border travel to Afghanistan turned violent. Security forces clashed with demonstrators as they attacked govt offices, injuring at least 40 people including 17 security personnel. Chaman border crossing with Afghanistan remained closed for seventh consecutive month, causing economic losses and hardship for traders. 

Militant attacks and faith-based violence continued, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Officials 9 June confirmed death of seven soldiers who were targeted by roadside bomb in Lakki Marwat district in KP; military 10 June claimed to have killed 11 “terrorists” suspected in attack during overnight operation between 10-11 June in Lakki Marwat District, also in KP militants were suspected of 18 June killing of prominent local journalist. News reports 16 June surfaced about death of Pakistani Taliban commander, Abdul Manan, in Afghanistan amid reports of internal strife within TTP. Faith-based violence continued. Notably, mob 20 June killed Muslim tourist from Punjab for allegedly desecrating Quran in KP’s Swat district. Police 8 June arrested man suspected of killing two men from Ahmadiyya community in Punjab’s Mandi Bahuddin district. 

Internal political deadlock continued. Islamabad High Court 3 June acquitted former PM Imran Khan and FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi in cipher case and overturned 10-year sentence. However, both faced additional charges in other cases, making likelihood of their release slim. Despite first agreeing to negotiate with govt, Khan 14 June told journalists negotiating with “powerless” govt was futile when “higher authorities” predetermined outcomes.