The next seven months are a time of great danger for Côte d’Ivoire. Under pressure of an increasingly suspect 15 October 2005 election deadline, its political class may lose control of the cyclical violence it has orchestrated during the on-again, off-again civil war that has divided the country since September 2002.
The January 2003 Linas-Marcoussis Accords have been badly compromised by a lack of good faith and political will. All the key issues – nationality, eligibility for elections, and disarmament – that they attempted to address in order to restore peace and national unity to Côte d’Ivoire and lead it to presidential elections in October 2005 are stalemated.
“The war is not yet over”, an ICG mission to Côte d’Ivoire repeatedly heard in November 2003. There are ominous signs that the Côte d’Ivoire peace process initiated in January 2003 has broken down.
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