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Despite progress in implementing a peace agreement with the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People - National Forces of Liberation (Palipehutu-FNL), the last active rebel movement, Burundi is going through a dangerous political crisis which could compromise the holding of free and fair elections in 2010 and the country’s future stability.

Burundi has made relatively rapid, substantial progress in democracy and easing of inter-ethnic tensions, due to its citizens desire to embrace national unity and compromise, as well as the international community’s heavy involvement in the Arusha peace process.

Since the new, democratically elected government came to power in September 2005, the first since 1993, there has been marked deterioration in Burundi’s political climate. Led by the National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), the government has arrested critics, moved to muzzle the press, committed human rights abuses and tightened its control over the economy.

Elections have radically transformed Burundi's political landscape. The success of the former CNDD-FDD rebels, including the selection of Pierre Nkurunziza as president on 19 August, gives the party control of all branches of government.

Although the deadlines for the political transition in Burundi set by the Arusha Agreement have not been respected, the move toward holding elections, the most important step in the Burundian peace process, is currently underway.

The considerable progress Burundi has made over the past year in consolidating its three-year transition risks ending in a dangerous political vacuum if strong commitments are not made immediately to the electoral process outlined in the 2000 Arusha agreement.

The International Crisis Group is publishing a series of reports on the problems of repatriation for Burundi; the first report, Burundi’s Refugees: Defusing the Land Time-bomb,* emphasises how both the transitional government and the international community have thus far given too little attention to this issue, which is essential for lasting peace in the region. This report, Refugees and Internally Displaced in Burundi The Urgent Need for a Consensus on their Repatriation and Reintegration, explores the urgent need for a consensus on repatriation and reintegration of refugees and internally displaced in Burundi. 

A final cease-fire agreement and the permanent suspension of hostilities in Burundi, however elusive these objectives might seem today, carry the risk that a great many people who were uprooted will rush home to a country not yet prepared to receive them.