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Venezuela’s blocking of a recall referendum on ending the presidency of Nicolás Maduro has made a peaceful solution to the country’s festering conflict harder to achieve. Vatican mediation now offers one of the few hopes of progress.

Faced with crushing economic stress, a weakening president, a constitutional stalemate and popular unrest, Venezuela’s “Chavista” government and the opposition are feeling their way towards compromise.

¿Es Nicolás Maduro quien realmente manda en Venezuela? La gran concentración de poder en manos de los militares sugiere que la estabilidad del país dependerá de la responsabilidad de sus Fuerzas Armadas.

Nicolás Maduro was elected president of Venezuela in April 2013 by a narrow margin. His term is due to end in January 2019, unless the opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance can force a recall referendum this year – and win it. But does President Maduro really run the country?

Venezuela is in full-fledged crisis: food and medicine are scarce, violent crime is surging, and the government is blocking democratic ways forward. The international community and the Organization of American States should press for political dialogue, the opening of legal paths to a presidential recall referendum in 2016, and permission for humanitarian aid to enter the country.

The results of the December 2015 parliamentary elections could have been an opportunity to seek a negotiated solution to Venezuela's protracted political crisis. Instead, the country is in a spiral of confrontation and chaos. In this video, Crisis Group Andes Senior Analyst Phil Gunson, and former Crisis Group Latin America Program Director Javier Ciurlizza explain how political confrontation, economic mismanagement and crime have pushed Venezuela to the brink of collapse.

The late socialist leader Hugo Chávez should be turning over in his grave as the poor are suffering the most from Venezuela’s economic collapse. His successor, President Nicolás Maduro, is attempting to cling to power by railing against a recall referendum, a provision that Chávez himself included in the constitution.