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Little has changed in the calculations of the main actors in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, despite the dramatic upsurge in violence almost a year ago. To prevent a reprise, outside powers should push for interim steps as they revisit the core assumptions of their diplomacy.

Crisis Group’s Watch List identifies ten countries or regions at risk of deadly conflict or escalation thereof in 2022. In these places, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could enhance prospects for peace and stability.

The wave of violence that swept through Israel and the Palestinian territories in April-May 2021 grabbed the world’s attention. Now, the conflict has again largely fallen off the international radar. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to press Israel to take steps that would mitigate the impact of its de facto annexation of the occupied West Bank and support renewal in Palestinian politics.

In 30 November remarks to the UN Security Council, Crisis Group's Interim Vice President Comfort Ero laid out arguments for rethinking the framework of peacemaking in Israel-Palestine as well as steps various parties can take to improve the situation on the ground in the meantime.

The latest escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict brought important shifts in the status quo, underscoring the necessity of a political settlement. A peace based on equal respect for both peoples’ rights will take time, however. Steps to lower the temperature are urgent in the interim.

A new Israeli government is set to replace long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As Crisis Group expert Mairav Zonszein explains, however, not much but antipathy for the ex-premier holds the prospective cabinet together. It may well struggle to survive.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group expert Tareq Baconi about Hamas – the Palestinian militant movement governing Gaza – what it wants, how Palestinians view it and prospects for an end to violence while it rules Gaza.