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This edition includes entries on Bangladesh, DR Congo, Ethiopia and Somaliland, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts. 

Thus far, October’s exchanges of fire between Hizbollah and Israel have stayed within the sides’ red lines. Still, with an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza looming, risks are tremendous. A Gaza ceasefire, while improbable, is the only way to rule out a broader war.

In these short videos, our expert analysts for Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, Iran, the Gulf Arab states, Syria, Iraq and Turkiye explain how these countries are responding to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Joost Hiltermann, Mairav Zonszein and Azmi Keshawi about Hamas’s massacre of Israelis, how it happened, Israel’s bombardment of Gaza and what looks set to be a devastating ground operation.

This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Dr Suliman Baldo, Executive Director of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker, to discuss the situation in Sudan six months into the war and where the country is headed.

Fighting has resumed between the Wagner Group-supported Malian army and a coalition of armed groups that signed the 2015 peace agreement, jeopardising the accord. Crisis Group experts Ibrahim Maïga and Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim explain what caused these clashes and what each side could lose.

Join Crisis Group Executive Vice President Richard Atwood as he dives deep into the conflicts that rage around the globe. He speaks with Crisis Group field analysts and special guests to get their unique, on-the-ground perspective. Episodes from past seasons of Hold Your Fire! can be found here: Season 1, Season 2 and Season 3.

In March, units reportedly affiliated with the Ukrainian armed forces but composed of Russian citizens and others began making armed incursions into regions of Russia along Ukraine’s border. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain who these Russian combatants are and what they are doing.