Latest Updates

On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge over the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.

Disputes over water in the northern tip of Cameroon turned deadly in 2021, taking on a troubling ethnic dimension. The authorities have striven to contain the fighting, but to be sure of preventing a recurrence, they need to address the conflict at its roots. 

The Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip has pushed many of its residents to the edge of death from starvation and disease. Only a prolonged ceasefire accompanied by a massive aid operation can improve the situation enough to avoid a horrific toll.

This edition includes entries on Cameroon, South Sudan, Venezuela and Western Sahara, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts. 

Too many people still die from violent conflict and it is preventable.

Twenty years ago, the first edition of Crisis Group’s early warning bulletin was born. Covering about 50 situations of conflict at the time, CrisisWatch has evolved into a much more sophisticated tool, becoming a leading reference for those seeking to prevent conflict or mitigate its effects.

This edition includes entries on Bangladesh, DR Congo, Ethiopia and Somaliland, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts. 

Crisis Group’s Watch List identifies ten countries or regions at risk of deadly conflict or escalation thereof in 2023. In these places, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could enhance prospects for peace and stability.

Though hope is fading, the U.S. and Iran may still be able to revitalise the 2015 accord on Tehran’s nuclear program. Should they falter, they should pursue more modest interim goals rather than allow the risk of confrontation to grow.

Renewed fighting between a federal-Amhara-Eritrea coalition and Tigray’s forces has shattered a tenuous months-long truce. The reversal heralds a return to one of the world’s deadliest conflicts. International envoys should keep pressing the Ethiopian parties to renew the truce and begin formal direct negotiations.