CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Tbilisi gripped by fears of counter-coup, possibly by military forces loyal to exiled former State Security Minister Igor Giorgadze. Several bomb blasts and other violent incidents reported throughout month. Concern that country could disintegrate or descend into civil war – or both – as result of power games between rival political factions ahead of 4 January presidential elections and secessionist aspirations of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Ajara regions. Russia offering tacit support to breakaway regions; hosted leaders for talks in Moscow, sparking outrage from Tbilisi and rebuke from U.S. Sec. State Colin Powell. Aslan Abashidze, authoritarian leader of Ajara, said will call off planned boycott of January election.
Parliament approved controversial draft media law, criticised by journalists as increasing state’s ability to control press.
Document presented to UN Security Council by head of UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) Harri Holkeri 10 December spelling out standards to be met in democracy, rule of law, market economy and refugee returns before discussion of final status. UN lamented slow progress in minority returns and integration. Twelve Kosovo Protection Corps (KPC) officers suspended for 6 months by UN while investigation conducted into suspected involvement in March bombing. Kosovo’s parliament voted to nullify all laws passed in the province during Milosevic’s rule; move immediately condemned by Kosovo Serb leaders and overturned by UNMIK.
Amendment placing restrictions on foreign media coverage of elections passed by parliament, drawing strong criticism, particularly from Russian press. In south, Uzbek police illegally crossed border 10 December in attempt to arrest Kyrgyz citizen. Raid thwarted by citizen’s neighbours. Uzbek raids into Kyrgyzstan reported frequently; targets usually Muslims suspected of extremism.
Peace efforts in disarray following Chisinau’s last- minute rejection, in November, of controversial Russian proposal for ending dispute with breakaway Transdniestrian region. OSCE annual meeting, in Maastricht, ended in stalemate 2 December, with Russia failing to garner support for its plan, and other OSCE members unable to commit Russia to deadline for withdrawing its troops from Transdniestria. Officials in Tiraspol, Transdniestrian capital, declared suspension of Russian military evacuation in retaliation for Moldovan government’s failure to accept Russian proposal.
Decade-long foreign military presence in Macedonia ended 15 December as EU operation Concordia was officially replaced by a police support mission, Proxima. Six-week voluntary disarmament program also finished 15 December, yielding about 8,000 illegal weapons. Estimates of number of illegal weapons in the country range from 100– 170,000, but compared with similar initiatives in the region, the campaign was a success.
No progress in political stalemate as DUP maintained refusal to work with Sinn Fein. Three Assembly members defected from David Trimble’s moderate UUP to ally with Ian Paisley's DUP. IRA and loyalist ceasefires held. Review of the Good Friday Agreement due to start in January. Blair and Ahern met Sinn Fein 17 December to push for further commitments on peace process.
Parliamentary elections 28 December ushered in period of political instability. Nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS) led by indicted war criminal Vojislav Seselj won largest number of seats (82 of 240) in parliamentary elections; Milosevic's SPS won 21 seats. DSS led by Vojislav Kostunica won 53 seats, Democratic Party 37 and G17+ won 34. Neither Radicals not SPS likely to be in new government, but can block reforms. The new government, of whatever composition, likely to be short-lived. Recent ICTY indictments fuelled domestic debate about cooperation with Hague tribunal. SRS vowed not to extradite any more ICTY indictees to The Hague. Highly politicised trial of 44 suspects in March assassination of Premier Zoran Djindjic commenced in Belgrade 22 December, with chaotic scenes as defence lawyers walked out.
Mamadruzi Iskandarov, head of Democratic Party of Tajikistan (DPT), dismissed as head of Tajikgas (a government post). Government blamed him for energy problems, but Iskandarov claimed decision political. Move part of continued pressure on opposition party members; DPT had been critical of June referendum on constitutional changes. Further controversy over decision by state publishing house not to print Ruz-i-Nav newspaper. Speculation that regime marking limits for opposition activity ahead of elections in early 2005.
Investigations into November bombings that claimed 62 lives indicated al Qaeda financing. Around 30 arrested including individual suspected of making four bombs used in attacks..
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.