What Hope for a Gaza Ceasefire and What Happens Without One?

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Israel expert Mairav Zonszein, Israel-Palestine director Rami Dajani and U.S. program director Michael Hanna to talk about the latest from Gaza, prospects for a ceasefire and the risks of all-out war between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. They discuss how the violence in Gaza has evolved and the recent Israeli strike aimed at killing a top Hamas commander that, according to the local authorities, killed scores of civilians in a designated safe zone. They talk about ceasefire negotiations, whether the two sides have softened their positions on the main stumbling blocks – Hamas’s rejecton of a short-term ceasefire entailing the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners without guarantees that such a truce would lead to a permanent end to hostilities; and Israel’s refusal to agree to end the war without further degrading Hamas – and what governance in Gaza looks like absent a deal. They also cover the risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hizbollah.

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For more, check out our statement A Gaza Ceasefire and our Israel/Palestine country page.