CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Rebel group Lords Resistance Army (LRA) continues vicious campaign in north. Over 100 civilians killed in Lira district, some beheaded, 300,000 forced to flee since August. Senior UN official claims humanitarian situation in north Uganda worst in world. President Museveni criticised foreign donors for imposing limits on military spending, hampering efforts to counter LRA.
Zimbabwe’s economy deteriorated further, government continued to deal harshly with dissent. Police now seizing foreign currency from tourists and businesses. Official inflation reached 526%, unemployment 70%. Dozens arrested and detained for several days for protesting against President Mugabe, subsequently charged and released. Commonwealth banned Mugabe from attending December heads of government meeting in Nigeria. Mugabe threatening to pull out of Commonwealth.
Grip of central government outside Kabul still weak; insecurity hampering reconstruction and political progress. Fighting between Afghan factions in north continues despite plans to recall commanders Atta and Dostum to Kabul. Government team dispatched to merge their forces and integrate them into national army. Serious concern about power vacuum in southern Zabul province, scene of deadly clashes this month. French UNHCR worker killed 16 November in Ghazni; car bomb exploded outside Kandahar UNAMA office 12 November; UN humanitarian operations now suspended in several southern and eastern provinces. 11,500- strong U.S.-led coalition force continues to focus on south and east where regrouped Taliban forces target internationals and Afghan police and troops; also launched new counter-terror campaign in northeast. At Brussels NATO meeting 30 November U.S. defence chief Donald Rumsfeld indicated U.S. would like NATO eventually to take over military mission. Draft constitution unveiled 3 November leaves fundamental rights subject to future legislation, concentrates power in presidency and fails to delineate respective powers of centre and provinces. Process widely criticised as rushed and favouring those already in power; similar fears expressed about upcoming electoral process. Border with Pakistan, calm since July, saw renewed clashes 2 November.
Chinese military held anti-terror exercises in Tibet, ostensibly to practice fighting “terrorists” aligned with Dalai Lama. Repression of devout Muslims continues in northwestern province of Xinjiang.
Violence surged in northeast where some 30 banned insurgent groups (separatist and communist) operate. At least 57 killed (mostly Biharis) and hundreds of homes torched this month in Assam, in clashes between locals and Hindi-speaking Bihari settlers. 500 arrests made and 600 additional troops deployed. Also in Assam, nine died when NDFB Bodoland separatist guerillas clashed with civilians and 14 more died in fighting between Kuki and Karbi tribal groups. In Manipur, separatist militants kidnapped and murdered seven-year-old daughter of state minister and 11 rebels killed in gun battle between rival groups. Hindu-Muslim clashes in Gujarat - site of bitter fighting in 2002 - killed four and injured dozens in several incidents this month.
Hope tempered by scepticism as ceasefire on Line of Control (LOC) began midnight 26 November – first formal ceasefire since start of insurgency in 1989 but longer term significance remains to be seen. Pakistani PM Jamali announced unilateral ceasefire on LOC 23 November, one month after India’s surprise peace initiative proposing 12 concrete steps toward Indo-Pak normalisation. Indian offer included restoration of further transport links and renewal of sporting ties; but, crucially, no discussion on Kashmir itself. After stumbles over preconditions, Indian Deputy PM Advani ready for unconditional talks with All Party Hurriyat Conference (umbrella organisation for Kashmiri separatist groups). PM Vajpayee agreed to attend long-delayed SAARC regional summit in Islamabad in January 2004 but ruled out bilateral talks. Pakistan offered 30 November to allow direct overflights, banned since January 2002, opening way for full resumption of air links. Meanwhile violence continues unabated in the valley. Kashmiri rights groups reports that abuses by Indian security forces fuelling indigenous recruitment into extremist groups. Government sources estimate 40,000 casualties since 1989; separatists claim more than 80,000.
Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) regrouping after arrests and reportedly planning new attacks; new operations chief Aris Sumarsono, alias Zulkarnaen, still at large. Attacks by suspected Muslim radicals continue in Central Sulawesi despite deployment of 3200 extra police and soldiers. In Papua, 22 killed, including Free Papua Movement (OPM) leader Yustinus Murib, in clashes between rebels and government troops this month. Governor of West Irian Jaya, new province carved out of Papua, was formally installed by Minister of Home Affairs. Full scale military operation against separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) ongoing; military emergency declared in mid-May extended for six months on 6 November. EU, U.S. and Japan responded immediately with joint statement of concern, urging political settlement; dismissed by Jakarta as “regrettable interference”. Access to province still almost entirely closed to foreigners, including humanitarian workers. GAM called for European mediation but Jakarta has ruled out ceasefire unless rebels renounce independence demand and disarm. Communal violence erupted in Bangka, southern Sumatra, 25 November, first day of Islamic Idul Fitri festival, two dead.
Despite verbal sparring between Washington and Pyongyang, expectation that six-way talks will resume 17-19 December in Beijing on basis of written multilateral security guarantee linked to North Korean steps on dismantling nuclear program. U.S. Secretary of Defence Rumsfeld and Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly conducted East Asian tours to prepare for multilateral talks. Pyongyang announced 6 November it had a nuclear deterrent powerful enough to deter any U.S. attack and was ready to use it; in part a response to U.S. announcement of suspension of KEDO power station project. U.S. reiterated had no intention of attacking North Korea. U.S. also announced plans to reposition its troops stationed in South Korea further from the border.
Situation seems stabilised after capital, Malé, rocked by unprecedented anti-government riots in September. After October referendum reinstated President Gayoom (sole candidate) for sixth five-year term, he sacked attorney general and another cabinet minister for attempting to register a political party (opposition parties are banned).
UN human rights envoy Paulo Pinheiro reported significant deterioration since March to General Assembly following 3 - 8 November investigative trip. U.S., EU, Japan and UN continue to demand Suu Kyi release and substantive talks with opposition, dismissing government road map to democracy as non-participatory, non-transparent and lacking timeline. Pinheiro reported after meeting Suu Kyi that she will refuse liberty until 35 NLD colleagues arrested in connection with 30 May violence released. Eight of these 35 released November 9, but 27 still incarcerated. Five other NLD leaders released 25 November.
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