Report 67 / Europe & Central Asia 18 May 1999 4 minutes Macedonia: Towards Destabilisation? Since NATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began on 24 March 1999, Macedonia has been in an extremely vulnerable frontline position, facing an unmanageable influx of refugees from Kosovo, the prospect of economic collapse and volatile domestic interethnic relations. Share Facebook Twitter Email Linkedin Whatsapp Save Print Download PDF Executive Summary Since NATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began on 24 March 1999, Macedonia has been in an extremely vulnerable frontline position, facing an unmanageable influx of refugees from Kosovo, the prospect of economic collapse and volatile domestic interethnic relations. This report, prepared by ICG’s field analyst in Skopje, gives a candid assessment of the current situation in Macedonia and pinpoints the threats to the country’s stability that have arisen out of the Kosovo conflict. At the most immediate level, the burden of having to cope with more than 200,000 Kosovo refugees is taking its toll on Macedonia. Macedonia must at all costs keep its border open for Kosovo Albanians seeking refuge from atrocities committed by Serb security forces and paramilitaries. But the international community must do everything in its power to provide Macedonia with the necessary financial aid and logistical assistance to handle a humanitarian crisis of this proportion. Ideally, refugees expelled from Kosovo should stay in the region, as close to their home province as possible, in order to be able to return swiftly once the conflict is over. But meanwhile their sheer numbers are threatening to destabilise the neighbouring countries that have taken them in, which is a frightening scenario in a region as highly charged as the Balkans. In Macedonia, worsening socio-economic conditions are already being blamed on the unwanted presence of the refugees. Leaving large numbers of refugees in this country for an extended period of time is likely to result in friction between the refugees and the local population. It will also lead to the deterioration of relations between the country’s ethnic Macedonians and the sizeable ethnic Albanian minority. Third countries must therefore be willing to speed up their intake of Kosovo refugees in order to ease the pressure on Macedonia as soon as possible. The bigger political picture aside, the situation in the refugee camps in Macedonia is getting increasingly tense and complicated. Tents are overcrowded and sanitary conditions appalling. As a rule, refugees are not allowed to leave the camps. Most spend their days with nothing to do and in uncertainty about their future, which causes widespread frustration. There have also been widespread complaints about the treatment of refugees by the Macedonian police guarding the camps. As summer approaches, more attention must be paid to sanitary conditions in the camps, which endanger not just the refugees and aid workers in the camps. There are concerns that the waste from the camps is already contaminating drinking water and water used for agriculture. As temperatures rise, the danger of epidemics increases. The number of refugees in the camps must therefore be reduced as soon as possible, and sanitary installations and other infrastructure must be upgraded. If the refugees are still unable to return by September or October the camps must be made winter-proof. Relations between the Macedonian authorities and international aid organisations have been strained in recent weeks. The government says foreign organisations operating in Macedonia fail to take into account the toll the refugee crisis is taking on the country, and accuses them of promoting destabilisation through their insistence on an ever-increasing intake of refugees. Government officials also complain about the “arrogance” and “hypocrisy” of UNHCR and NATO in particular. They have threatened to impose customs duties on imported international aid should NATO and UNHCR continue to “Boycott” Macedonian products. Given the grave state of Macedonia’s economy, international organisations should buy Macedonian products whenever possible. This would not only have a positive economic effect but also represent a psychological boost. At the same time, co-ordination between the various humanitarian organisations working in Macedonia must be improved. The economic fall-out from the Kosovo conflict is another serious threat to Macedonia’s stability. Instead of experiencing modest growth as projected for 1999, the Macedonian economy is now set to shrink by as much as 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product. Trade with Yugoslavia, its main trading partner, has collapsed, causing Macedonia to lose one of its most important export markets and a vital source of raw materials. Consequently, a number of factories had to close down, adding to already high unemployment. At the same time, the main transit route for Macedonian exports to most of Europe has been closed, increasing costs for exports. State coffers, almost empty before the outbreak of the crisis, are now practically exhausted. This means that there is hardly any money left for unemployment benefits, pensions, and health care provisions. In order to avoid an economic meltdown and reduce the danger of social unrest, Macedonia needs swift and straightforward financial assistance from the international community. This assistance must be sustained until Macedonia has recovered from the effects of the Kosovo conflict and is no longer teetering on the edge of total collapse. Finally, the combination of the refugee crisis and the worsening socio-economic situation seriously threatens the delicate balance of interethnic relations in Macedonia. The situation to date is still stable, but tense. Politicians in Macedonia must exercise extreme caution and moderation. Any initiative to improve inter-ethnic relations should be encouraged and supported by the international community. At all costs, the situation must not be exploited to pit one ethnic group against the other. Macedonia’s future depends to a large degree on developments in Kosovo and a swift resolution of the refugee crisis. The sooner the Kosovo conflict is over and refugees can return, the less significant the consequences for Macedonia will be. But as long as the conflict continues, Macedonia will need all the assistance it can get. The alternative is another downward spiral of instability in the Balkans. 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