CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Ilham Aliyev, son of retiring president Heidar Aliyev, said to have received 77% of vote in widely-criticised presidential elections. At least three killed and hundreds injured in post-election violence as police attacked supporters of opposition leader Isa Gambar. International observers reported numerous violations, including ballot-stuffing and voter intimidation, and wave of politically motivated arrests.
Plan to become ‘free-associated state’ (sovereign state associated with Spain) approved by Basque regional government 24 October causing considerable tension. Plan to be debated by regional parliament 4 November; if approved, to be put to referendum. Dependent legally, however, on 60% approval by national parliament. Spanish Government to challenge in constitutional court. 11 lorries bombed in Basque border town 12 October, Spanish national day – police blame Basque separatists ETA, who have carried out similar operations in previous years. French and Spanish police arrested 34 for suspected ETA links in joint operation. Government strongly denied ETA accusations of torture – UN envoy Theo van Boven to investigate in coming months.
High Rep. Paddy Ashdown reported Bosnia’s major ethnic groups beginning to cooperate: draft laws on intelligence and indirect tax reform formerly held up by political bickering now await parliamentary endorsement; integration of Serb and Bosniak armies under single national command finally underway. NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson announced 9 October NATO would likely leave Bosnia within 12-18 months. One notable shortcoming is Bosnia’s cooperation with ICTY. U.S. State Department’s Pierre Richard Prosper said 7 October that NATO Partnership for Peace membership and European integration hinged on Karadzic arrest.
Akhmad Kadyrov, Moscow’s hand- picked candidate for Chechen presidency, emerged victorious with reported 81% of 5 October vote. Despite official statements of high voter turnout, election widely seen as farce. Results did nothing to quell violence: according to Russian official, rebels launched 16 attacks against government positions in 24-hour period 18-19 October.
Sporadic violence continues following failed autonomy referendum and arrests of eight separatists in July. Series of explosions 16-19 October indirectly targeting commercial interests linked to mainland France. Police barracks in southern Corsica hit by rocket 25 October. Corsican National Liberation Front bombed Paris tax office 11 October. 10 October attack on air force barracks in Nice also being investigated for link to Corsican separatists. Visits by French interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy 16 and 30 October urging dialogue; new push to address organised crime link.
Decision by Turkish, Greek and Cypriot governments 15 October to cancel respective annual military exercises; jointly expressed support for plan to de-mine Cyprus. Progress unlikely in UN-led efforts to reunify Cyprus, however, until after December elections in Turkish Cyprus. Diplomatic push for UN-backed peace plan by U.S. ambassador elicited hostile reaction from Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktash, who described it as "diplomatically unethical, unacceptable, uninvited interference".
U.S. stepping up pressure on Tbilisi ahead of 2 November parliamentary elections, widely expected to be less than fair. Days after announcement U.S. cutting aid to Georgia, American delegation including Senator John McCain, former Chairman of Joint Chiefs John Shalikashvili, and former Deputy Sec. State Strobe Talbott met with government and opposition officials, saying Georgia’s international standing would receive “serious blow” if major election violations. President has rejected calls to postpone election until inaccuracies in voter lists cleared up. Rally 23 October by opposition National Movement in Batumi, capital of Ajara autonomous region, broken up by Ajaran security forces with 70 arrested. Elsewhere, two alleged Georgian gunmen shot dead in breakaway republic of Abkhazia after ambushing car full of Abkhaz officials, killing three. Settlement still nowhere in sight. Talks with unrecognised republic of South Ossetia also stalled.
Government continues to bully opposition parties and independent-minded journalists. Recently banned Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK) not allowed to re- register. Former leader of Republican People’s Party of Kazakhstan (RNPK), another opposition party, charged with tax evasion and fined $225,000. Andrei Doronin, journalist for independent daily Ekspress-K, allegedly beaten and told to give up journalism after publishing stories on losses to national budget due to shadow economy.
Tense and brief first official meeting between Belgrade and representatives of Kosovo’s provisional government took place in Vienna 14 October. Each side fielded downsized delegation after Kosovo PM Rexhepi declined to attend, and Belgrade threatened boycott following withdrawal of non- Albanians from Kosovo delegation. Delegations provisionally agreed to establish joint working groups on energy, transport, refugee return, and missing persons to meet from November, but PM Rexhepi yet to commit his government to join. Brief detention in Slovenia 22 October of Kosovo Protection Corps head General Ceku dismayed Kosovo Albanians – Interpol’s acceptance of dubious arrest warrant from Miliosevic-era Serbian judge highlighted Kosovo’s indeterminate status and its leaders’ vulnerability. UN police announced arrest 28 October of five Kosovo Albanians for war crimes.
After international pressure, Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, vocal opposition group, had registration approved on fourth attempt, and government retracted demand that Kyrgyz Committee for Human Rights (KCHR) re-register, but environment for civil society groups remains difficult. Border with Uzbekistan continuing source of tension.
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