Chinese officials responded sharply to Taiwanese President Chen Shui-ban’s calls for new constitution and right to hold referendums, saying moves toward independence could make use of force “unavoidable”. Threat to use force first since 2000. In step thought designed to boost re- election chances by provoking China, President Chen set timetable for referendum on new constitution (December 2006) and implementation (May 2008). But Taiwanese parliament voted down controversial bill allowing referendum on independence; instead passed watered-down version permitting such a vote only in extreme circumstances. China cut ties with Kiribati after island chain recognised Taiwan.

OSCE Minsk Group reportedly planning attempt at kickstarting peace talks in coming weeks, but group’s efforts have brought little progress to date.

New president Ilham Aliyev showing no signs of acquiescing to calls by OSCE, Human Rights Watch and others for investigation into irregularities and violence during and after 15 October election. Arrests and dismissals of opposition supporters continue, and government cracking down on independent press.

Plan to become ‘free-associated state’ (sovereign state associated with Spain) approved by Basque regional government 24 October causing considerable tension. Plan to be debated by regional parliament and if approved, put to referendum. Central government declared moves unconstitutional, filed appeal 13 November with Constitutional Court and passed law 28 November criminalising calling of referendum without permission of central government. Two ETA suspects arrested by French police 17 November; Spanish police captured 12 alleged leaders following day.

NATO-assisted defence restructuring continues: integration of Serb and Bosniak- Croat armies under single national command finally underway, 7,500 soldiers to be disarmed and 1,000 metric tons of weaponry destroyed by year-end. European Commission feasibility study gives Bosnia good chance of beginning negotiations for EU Stabilisation and Association Agreement in 2004. One notable shortcoming is cooperation with ICTY. Officials stated that NATO Partnership for Peace membership and European integration hinged on Karadzic arrest. Funding secured for new domestic war crimes court to begin work early 2004.

Newly-installed Chechen president Akhmad Kadyrov set end of winter deadline for security forces to wipe out remaining rebels, but attacks continue despite government’s apparent optimism. Nine Russian soldiers and four policemen died in separate incidents in neighbouring Ingushetia. Chechen envoy Akhmed Zakayev granted asylum in Britain after judge rejected Russian extradition request. Italian PM Berlusconi widely criticised for comments supporting Putin on Chechnya.

Corsican nationalists FLNC announced unilateral ceasefire in surprise move 14 November after surge of violence since failed July autonomy referendum.

U.S. and EU keen to broker reunification before Greek Cypriot part of island joins European Union May 2004. Progress unlikely, however, until after 14 December elections in Turkish Cyprus – last round of talks broke down in March with Turkish Cypriot leadership insisting on two state solution. Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos requested UN sponsorship of new peace talks 26 November. UN SG Kofi Annan called for six-month extension of UN peacekeeping force on the island.

Peaceful revolution swept President Eduard Shevardnadze from power, but risk of violence and fragmentation of country remains. Uprising, dubbed “Rose Revolution” and led by 35-year-old lawyer Mikheil Saakashvili, spanned three weeks of mass protests against fraudulent 2 November elections; culminated 22 November when Saakashvili and supporters stormed parliament while Shevardnadze delivered speech inside. Georgian police and interior ministry troops offered no resistance. After visit from Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov, and call from U.S. Secretary of State Powell, Shevardnadze resigned following day. Presidential elections set for 4 January 2004: Saakashvili expected to win. Aslan Abashidze, authoritarian leader of autonomous region of Ajara, declared state of emergency and partially closed border with rest of Georgia. Concern that Ajara will follow secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in demanding independence; Russia, in slap to Tbilisi, hosted leaders of three regions for talks in Moscow.

Media under fire in region’s wealthiest country. Editor of independent paper “SolDat” banned from journalism for five years following conviction on financial charges unrelated to his writing. Supreme Court rejected appeal of Sergei Duvanov, opposition journalist accused of rape and jailed in January after flawed trial.