CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
President Sanchez de Lozada resigned 17 October following huge and increasingly violent protests. Replaced by Vice-President Carlos Mesa. 74 killed in clashes between army and strikers since beginning of protests in September, sparked by plans to export natural gas to U.S. Opposition to gas plan broadened into general hostility to president’s free market and coca eradication policies. Thousands march on capital as new president asks for patience.
Car bomb killed six and injured 12 on 8 October in central Bogota: FARC blamed. Two mayors slain after secret meeting with FARC, totalling nine mayors assassinated this year. Ceasefire between government and right-wing paramilitary group put in doubt by 13 October deadly clashes. Regional FARC number two leader killed by Colombian army 19 October. In run up to 25 October national referendum and 26 October local elections, at least 30 candidates killed by illegal groups; others intimidated into dropping out. 25 politicians detained as government claims rebel ties. Package of measures failed in referendum due to low voter turnout, and leftist candidate won election as mayor of Bogota, in setback to President Uribe.
Indigenous party planning civil protest campaign. President Lucio Gutierrez ended alliance with indigenous party in August. State of emergency declared in response to strike and blockades by banana growers, but lifted when strike called off.
Climate of violence and intimidation as November presidential, legislative and local elections approach. Killing of political candidate 11 October brought to 21 number of candidates killed since beginning of election season. Upsurge of violence linked to candidacy of ex- dictator Rios Montt, allowed to run by July High Court ruling. Four Guatemalan journalists and one human rights activist kidnapped by former paramilitaries; later released.
Thousands protested against renewal of IMF debt payments 14 October, arguing government paying too high price for renewal.
Terrorist group Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) becoming more active, taxing Brazilian loggers and drug traffickers to access Peruvian markets. Ex-President Fujimori, in exile in Japan, announced intent to stand for 2006 presidential elections. Government announced torture charges against Fujimori, adding to charges already laid. New intelligence chief appointed after predecessor resigned in September following allegations of spying on journalists. Anger grows amongst coca farmers as U.S. and Peruvian governments eradicate plant.
Situation tense with clampdown on media. After officials seized broadcasting equipment from opposition TV channel, and grenade attack against state media agency, President Chavez announced TV stations could be shut down due to “destabilization and violence”. Chavez facing mounting opposition but resisting calls for referendum. After rejecting opposition petition for referendum last month National Electoral Council has allowed new petition to be sought from 28 Nov. to 1 Dec. Date criticised as too late but accepted by opposition. Referendum therefore possible by end March 2004. Pro- Chavez lawmakers claim U.S. backed anti-Chavez plot.
On two-day visit, U.S. Assistant Sec. State William Burns said cooperation with Algeria in war on terror would intensify, and expressed concern over Islamist guerrilla group’s pledge of support for al Qaeda. Following reported death of eight soldiers 1 October, Algerian Islamist rebels suspected of killing further three in attack on police patrol 18 October.
Ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) adopted platform of wide-ranging reforms at party conference; to what extent proposals will be implemented remains to be seen. 900 Islamists released from prison, but estimates put number of political prisoners at close to 10,000.
After negotiations with foreign ministers of UK, France, and Germany, Iran agreed 21 October to all major IAEA demands regarding nuclear program, including temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, meaning issue now unlikely to be referred to Security Council on passing of 31 October IAEA deadline. But no word on how long suspension of enrichment activities will last. U.S. cautioned that Iran’s actions must match words, and that it must sign Additional Protocol of Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty (NPT). Iranian human rights activist Shirin Ebadi won Nobel Peace Prize
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