Thailand’s 2023 general election resulted in a coalition government that left the leading party, the progressive Move Forward, in opposition. The country’s fundamental political and social divisions have not been bridged. If electoral participation continues to fall short in effecting change, people may be drawn to other means of doing so. The potential for conflict therefore remains, though it is not obvious what might trigger turmoil in the near term. In the deep south, the Patani-Malay separatist insurgency continues, while the dialogue process appears dormant. Crisis Group aims to reduce the risk of escalation in the south and limit medium-term threats to stability by supporting strengthened democratic institutions and promoting substantive peace talks.
Despite winning big at the polls on 14 May, Thailand’s Move Forward has been blocked from forming a government. In taking this step, as Crisis Group expert Matt Wheeler explains in this Q&A, the party’s conservative opponents are nudging the country toward turmoil.
Election Commission approved new Senate and violence continued in deep south.
Election Commission endorsed new senators. Election Commission 10 July confirmed election of 200 new senators for five-year term, replacing 250 senators appointed by National Council for Peace and Order in 2019; despite electoral process designed to prevent politicisation of Senate, over 60% of new senators are affiliated to Bhumjaithai Party, member of govt coalition with close ties to army and monarchy, while 12 senators are aligned with Pheu Thai party and 18 with Move Forward Party (MFP). Constitutional Court 24 July said it will rule on case concerning impeachment of PM Srettha Thavisin on 14 Aug.
Violence continued in deep south, Malaysia appointed new facilitator to support peace dialogue. Malaysia 1 July appointed Datuk Seri Mohamad Rabin Basir as new Malaysian Govt Facilitator for southern Thailand peace dialogue process; new round of official talks between Thai govt and main separatist group Barisan Revolusi National due in mid-Aug. Meanwhile, violence in deep south persisted. In Pattani’s Mae Lan district, gunmen 3-4 July shot down village head. In Narathiwat’s Sri Sakhon district, rangers 4 July clashed with militants, leaving some injured. Militants disguised as rangers 9 July carried out raids in districts of Krong Pinang, Yaha and Muang, in Yala province, stealing weapons. In Pattani’s Nong Chik district, assailants 12 July shot down defence volunteer. Roadside IED attacks 22 July wounded six police officers in Nong Chik district, Pattani province, and 23 July four police officers in Thepa district, Songkhla province. Security forces and militants 27 July clashed in Khok Pho district, Pattani, resulting in two soldiers wounded and one killed by grenade. Two suspected militants 28 July killed man in Pattani’s Panareh district.
In important international developments. Bank officials 11 July appeared before House committee on national security after UN Human Rights report 26 June alleged Thai lenders were responsible for half of Myanmar’s arms and materiel procurement in 2023; committee chairman and Move Forward MP Rangsiman Rome 19 July said he had no evidence banks broke law; Foreign Ministry 24 July announced creation of task force to investigate and prevent such transactions.
There’s a sense of hopelessness [in Thailand] — that there’s no way to effect any kind of real change in the available political avenues.
Negotiations between Bangkok and the main insurgent group in Thailand’s southernmost provinces are on hold, after making some promising advances. Structural and procedural changes could help keep the talks going when they resume.
The Thai government has restarted talks with the main insurgency in the country’s southernmost provinces. A quiet back channel helped the parties make progress – and reach a Ramadan ceasefire – while the official negotiations hosted by Malaysia paused. The parties should build on these achievements.
Youth-led protests demanding a new constitution and reforms to Thailand’s monarchy led the country to a perilous juncture in 2020. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2021, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to push for the cessation of excessive use of force against protesters, strengthen efforts to monitor the human rights situation and offer support should a reconciliation process materialise.
Young pro-democracy protesters have roiled Thai politics with a previously taboo demand to reform the country’s monarchy. As the state resists change, and conservative citizens recoil, the risk of violence is growing. The standoff poses Thailand’s existential question: is the king sovereign or are the people?
Anti-government protests and popular demands for reform, including of the once-sacrosanct monarchy, have accelerated in Thailand. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for South East Asia, Matt Wheeler, explains how this crisis over political legitimacy has now reached a dangerous impasse.
Sound public health policies have largely spared Thailand from the coronavirus to date. But a looming economic crisis could shake the foundations of the political order. What is needed is revision of the 2017 constitution to allow for more pluralism and less inequality.
Talks to end the insurgency in Thailand’s southernmost provinces have repeatedly encountered obstacles, including the main rebel organisation’s abstention from the current round. With a new Thai official taking charge, and inviting that group to rejoin, both parties should drop objections that have hindered progress.
On 5 November, insurgents in southern Thailand staged their deadliest attack in years, killing fifteen people. Crisis Group’s South East Asia Senior Analyst, Matt Wheeler, explains what happened and what it means for the stagnant peace-dialogue process.
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