For much of the last several decades, Lebanon has been wracked by instability and tangled up in the affairs of larger or more powerful neighbours. Its confessional political system, based on power sharing among its eighteen officially recognised ethno-religious groups, is arguably both the cause and the effect of recurrent strife, notably the 1975-1990 civil war. Today the elites who run the system are also implicated in ever-deepening state dysfunction and economic recession. Meanwhile, Lebanon is at risk of spillover from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Syrian war and regional turmoil, due partly to the rise of Hizbollah, the Shiite Islamist movement opposed to Israel and allied with Iran and the Syrian regime, as a political force. The country hosts hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees as well as nearly 1.5 million Syrians. Pending changes that would allow resolution of the outside conflicts, Crisis Group works to keep Lebanon insulated from their flare-ups, to seek durable solutions for refugees and to encourage structural reform that might alleviate the country's internal problems.
The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has brought the Middle East to its moment of greatest peril in years. All concerned must do their utmost to avoid regional war. The most important step, besides mutual restraint, is a Gaza ceasefire.
Risk of all-out war with Israel rose sharply after rocket strike killed a dozen youths in Golan Heights and Israel’s military killed top Hizbollah commander in retaliation; double executive vacuum and economic crisis persisted.
Hizbollah and Israel expanded range of cross-border strikes. Rocket strike 27 July killed 12, including children, in Israeli-occupied Golan Heights village of Majdal Shams. Israel and U.S. immediately blamed Hizbollah for attack, while Hizbollah denied responsibility. Israeli PM Netanyahu same day warned that Hizbollah would “pay a heavy price”, while U.S. diplomats reportedly urged Tel Aviv to exercise restraint to avoid full-blown conflict. Israeli air raid 30 July killed top Hizbollah commander Fuad Shukr and five civilians in Lebanese capital Beirut, while injuring at least 74 others; Hizbollah could retaliate severely, especially in light of Hamas political head Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Iran hours later (see Israel/Palestine). Earlier in July, Israel continued lethal aerial bombing campaigns across southern Lebanon, striking near cities of Saida and Tyre in south and Baalbek in east, while Hizbollah upheld trend of retaliating severely. Notably, Israeli drone strike 3 July killed Hizbollah commander Mohammed Naame Nasser near Tyre; Hizbollah 3-4 July responded by launching around 300 rockets into northern Israel. Hizbollah Sec Gen Hassan Nasrallah 17 July said cross-border attacks would hit new places in Israel after Israeli strikes 15-16 July killed eight civilians in Lebanon, including three children. Hizbollah 20 July for first time launched rockets at Israeli kibbutz Dafna in retaliation of same-day Israeli drone strike that injured civilians in Burj al-Muluk village.
Political deadlock and economic crisis persisted. Double executive vacuum with no president and only caretaker govt persisted as leaders made no serious efforts to end political deadlock. Economic crisis continued without progress on International Monetary Fund’s conditions to unlock financial rescue package. Central Bank governor Wassim Mansouri early July travelled to U.S. capital Washington, D.C. to lobby U.S. officials not to place Lebanon on Financial Action Task Force’s “grey list” of countries insufficiently committed to combating money laundering and terrorism financing; final decision expected in Oct.
Israel and Hezbollah have pursued a new dynamic of tit-for-tat retaliation – launching strikes against each other below the threshold of triggering an all-out war.
This year's [UNIFIL] mandate renewal discussion comes at an especially tense moment for the peacekeeping force [in Lebanon].
Nothing happens in southern Lebanon without Hezbollah’s knowledge.
Israel and one of its neighbors [Lebanon] - a neighbor that doesn't officially recognize Israel - have come to a constructive solution for a conflict. And that's histor...
Since October 2023, Hizbollah and Israel have been trading fire across the Lebanon-Israel border. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024 – Spring Update, Crisis Group looks at how the EU and its member states can stop the conflict from escalating and restore greater stability.
Since October, Hizbollah has walked a fine line between attacking Israel and avoiding all-out war. While no Lebanese actor can force Hizbollah to stop fighting, the group does not want the blame for a conflict that could devastate crisis-hit Lebanon.
Thus far, Hizbollah and Israel have avoided a disastrous escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border as the Gaza war rages. But trouble lies ahead. Western-led mediation remains the best way to restore security to the frontier.
Thus far, October’s exchanges of fire between Hizbollah and Israel have stayed within the sides’ red lines. Still, with an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza looming, risks are tremendous. A Gaza ceasefire, while improbable, is the only way to rule out a broader war.
In this video, David Wood discusses the presidential vacuum in Lebanon and how it's affecting the country's ability to deal with its other compounding crises.
With tensions rising along the Israeli-Lebanese border, the UN peacekeeping force stationed in the area has arguably never been more important. With the mandate up for renewal, the UN Security Council and troop-contributing countries should reassert their backing for the mission in the strongest terms.
In this video, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Lebanon, David Wood, warns that tensions between Hizbollah and Israel risk ending the relative calm of the past seventeen years.
The CrisisWatch Digest Lebanon offers a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.
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