December 2003

Election campaigning gathered momentum. Fernando Poe, film actor and close friend of deposed President Estrada, ahead of President Arroyo in opinion polls, but opposition divided. Commander of Abu Sayyaf rebel group, Galib Andang, captured 7 December. Government capture operation provoked gun battles with aligned Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) rebels, killing at least 14. Ceasefire with MILF re-established 17 December and formal peace negotiations expected to resume soon after Malaysia sends team of 25 observers to Mindanao. Five killed in clashes between insurgent New People’s Army (NPA) and government troops 7-8 December; immediately followed by unilateral declaration of Christmas ceasefire (10 December – 6 January) by government.

Security situation stabilised. Weather Coast region of Guadalcanal officially declared safe; over 200 refugees who had fled fighting earlier in the year returned in December. Australian-led multinational intervention force completed troop withdrawal from Weather Coast November 2003. Rapid reaction force remains on high alert in Townsville, Australia, deployable within 24 hours. Australian PM Howard visited 22 December for discussions with Solomon Islands government and civilian Regional Assistance Mission.

Political crisis between PM Wickremesinghe and President Kumaratunga continues to disrupt peace process; self-imposed 15 December deadline passed with no resolution to standoff. Wickremesinghe refused to continue peace negotiations with LTTE (Tamil Tigers) without control of security functions, currently in hands of Kumaratunga following latter’s 4 November dismissal of defence, interior, and information ministers and appropriation of their portfolios. Situation unlikely to change before parliament reconvenes in new year. Snap election a possibility.

President Chen Shui-ban announced government will hold referendum in March 2004, alongside presidential election, asking China to remove missiles aimed at Taiwan; move dismissed as further political stunt by critics. Parliament voted against government attempt to amend clauses in new referendum bill that restrict conditions in which referendums can be held. President Bush, seeking to calm rising cross-Strait tensions, said U.S. did not support unilateral moves by either side to change status quo. Comments seen as significant rebuke to Taiwan.

Presidents Robert Kocharian of Armenia and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan met for first time 11 December, on sidelines of UN summit in Geneva: said fuller dialogue on dispute to begin. Talks in Scotland between Armenian and Azerbaijani delegations said to have been constructive.

Over 100 opposition activists remain jailed for taking part in protests against fraudulent 15 October election. Group of prisoners and their relatives began hunger strike 1 December, demanding release of those still held. Rauf Arifoglu, editor of leading opposition daily, among detainees; OSCE calling for his release. Heidar Aliyev, leader of Azerbaijan for past decade and father of current President Ilham Aliyev, died of heart failure, aged 80.

Christmas bombing campaign by Basque separatist group ETA foiled – 2 suspected ETA members arrested 24 December, having planted 3 bombs and in possession of another. ETA seriously weakened by 9 December arrests of military and logistical chiefs; weapons and false identity documents also seized in operation. Basque plan to become ‘free-associated state’ (sovereign state associated with Spain) to be debated by regional parliament and if approved, put to referendum in 2005. Central government declared moves unconstitutional, filed appeal 13 November with Constitutional Court and passed law 28 November criminalising calling of referendum without permission of central government.

Integration of armies and customs services continued. Bosnian Serb commander Momir Nicolic imprisoned for 27 years by Hague tribunal for role in Srebrenica massacre and Serb General Stanislav Galic to 20 for crimes against humanity and war crimes. European Commission feasibility study gave Bosnia good chance of beginning negotiations for EU Stabilisation and Association Agreement in 2004. One noted shortcoming was lack of cooperation with Hague tribunal. International funding secured for new domestic war crimes court to begin work early 2004.

Suicide bombing of train in southern Stavropol region, near Chechnya, killed 45 on 5 December. Chechen rebel leadership denied involvement. Second suicide bombing 4 days later left 6 dead outside landmark Moscow hotel across from Kremlin; reports said Chechen woman responsible. In Dagestan region, near Chechen and Georgian frontiers, dozens of militants attacked Russian border troops 15 December, killing 9, then took hostages and fled into mountains. Russian troops freed hostages, but clashes continue. Akhmar Zavgaev won lone Chechen Duma seat in Russian parliamentary election 7 December. Unofficial reports indicate extremely low turnout among Chechen voters.

Crackdown on links between organised crime and nationalist violence announced in September by Interior Minister Sarkozy now underway. Leading Corsican nationalist, Charles Pieri, taken in for police questioning 14 December, placed under formal investigation 17 December for terrorism and misuse of public funds. Corsican separatist group, FLNC, announced unilateral ceasefire in surprise move 14 November after surge of violence since failed July 2003 autonomy referendum.