CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

North Macedonia

Prime Minister Crvenkovski sacked four cabinet ministers for incompetence 1 November, approved by Parliament 5 November. Voluntary disarmament program commenced 1 November. EU military monitoring mission “Concordia” scheduled to wind up 15 December by which time 200-strong EU police mission “Proxima” will be largely deployed. President Boris Trajkovski announced Skopje's plans to apply for EU membership by February 2004 at Berlin conference 15 November.

Northern Ireland (UK)

Good Friday peace agreement and continued functioning of Northern Ireland Assembly thrown into doubt by 26 November election result. Hardline unionist and nationalist parties gained ground: 30 of 108 seats went to anti-agreement Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), 27 for Trimble’s Ulster Unionists; Sinn Fein won 24 seats, six more than moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party. No new executive government can be formed without agreement of both DUP and Sinn Fein, so no resolution likely while DUP continues to refuse to work with Sinn Fein. Assembly still suspended; DUP to hold talks with Blair 1 December but unlikely power-sharing government will resume in near future.

Serbia

Political crisis continues. PM Zivkovic dissolved Parliament 13 November and called new parliamentary elections. Third attempt at presidential elections failed 16 November due to low voter turnout (32%), boycotted by two largest opposition parties: Kostunica’s DSS and the G17+ party of Miroljub Labus. Ultranationalist presidential candidate Nikolic won 46% of vote raising concerns for 28 December parliamentary elections. Former Croatian Serb leader Milan Babic indicted by ICTY 18 November. War crimes prosecutor Vukcevic insists on domestic competence to try all cases, but ICTY prosecutor Carla del Ponte adamant The Hague try senior figures. Ratko Mladic (indicted 1995) still at large with Belgrade denying knowledge of his whereabouts after he escaped police dragnet.

Tajikistan

Land mines laid by Uzbekistan along common border continue to kill and maim civilians. Two Tajiks killed and three injured while gathering wood in frontier area 4 November.

Türkiye

Devastated by four truck bombs in six days; 61 killed and 750 injured. Two Istanbul synagogues attacked 15 November, then British Embassy (killing Consul General) and HSBC Bank 20 November. Three Turkish militant Islamist groups linked to al Qaeda claimed responsibility for attacks; 21 arrested and many more being interrogated. 22 suspects that had fled to Syria extradited 30 November. Kurdish rebels attacked military outpost in southern Turkey 5 November, killing one soldier. Political wing of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK or KADEK) renamed itself People’s Congress of Kurdistan (KONGA-GEL) 11 November, claims to seek political solution but refuses to disband military wing; Ankara dismissed move as political stunt.

Turkmenistan

New law prohibiting unregistered religious activity came into effect 10 November, effectively banning all faiths but Sunni Islam and Russian Orthodox Church. Reporters Without Borders said RFE/RL correspondent under constant harassment from police. President Niyazov continues to run region’s most repressive regime.

Uzbekistan

Lower than expected cotton harvest will further undermine economic situation. No sign of relaxation of damaging restrictions on private trade. Human rights activists under continued pressure: Freedom House representatives harassed and threatened by local authorities in Namangan 21 November. Tension persists on borders: Uzbek residents of Sokh exclave, located on Kyrgyz side, demanding land corridor to Uzbekistan. Meanwhile, Uzbek land mines on frontier with Tajikistan killed two Tajik civilians and injured three others 4 November. Continuing repressive policies in Uzbekistan, and difficult economic situation, risk future unrest.

Latin America & Caribbean

Bolivia

Country stable after October riots and resignation of President Sanchez de Lozada. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan pledged greater UN attention to region, following visit to Bolivia. Latin American neighbours also pledged assistance.

Colombia

Government shake-up following 25 October elections has seen resignations of defence, interior and environment ministers. Armed forces commander and police chief also resigned and another general sacked. Resignations have damaged perceived strength of President Uribe. Colombia also facing economic problems. 800 members of rightwing AUC paramilitary group disarmed in public ceremony. Leftist ELN rebels released two of seven foreign tourists taken hostage in September. Other leftist rebel group, FARC, blamed for grenade attacks on two Bogota bars 15 November, killing one and injuring over 70. Each side accused other of planning violence during campaigns.

Ecuador

President Gutierrez facing accusations he received $30,000 in campaign contributions from alleged drug lord for last year’s elections.

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