Long-overdue elections that returned President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to power in 2022 have raised hopes that Somalia can close a highly divisive chapter in its recent history. But the challenges it faces remain daunting. Relations between the federal government and member states are still uneasy, talks over Somaliland’s status have made little progress and vital state-building tasks, like finalising the provisional constitution, are lagging behind. Meanwhile, a historic drought is undermining local livelihoods while also foreshadowing the long-term challenges posed by climate change. Further, even as Mohamud has declared “total war” on the Islamist insurgency Al-Shabaab, which remains a defiant actor, a security transition premised on the withdrawal of African Union troops by the end of 2024 is fast approaching. Crisis Group’s work in Somalia aims to foster and maintain political unity, address the root causes of insecurity, including climate change’s impact, and consider means to wind down the long war with Al-Shabaab.
After a decade-long lull, Somali pirates have hijacked a handful of vessels in recent months. Crisis Group expert Omar Mahmood reports on the burning anger over illegal trawling that is driving some local fishermen to sympathise with this dangerous – and profitable – activity.
Govt prepared to resume operations against Al-Shabaab as militants conducted further attacks; clan conflicts spiked, leaving dozens killed in Jubaland state.
Preparations for counter-insurgency offensive continued. In build-up to long-promised resumption of military campaign against Al-Shabaab, President Mohamud early July held meetings with security officials and visited frontlines including Waragadhi area of Middle Shabelle region (centre). Smaller operations continued elsewhere including in Hirshabelle state (centre), as govt and allied clan militias 11 July seized Burweyn and Shaw villages east of Shabelle river in expansion of operations’ focus from river’s western bank. In Jubaland state (south) security forces 10 July captured Harbole and Miido villages between Afmadow and Kismayo towns; but Al-Shabaab continued to pose threat and 22 July attacked the two villages as well as recently recaptured town Buulo Xaaji; group, however, failed to defeat Jubaland forces, incurring heavy casualties. Militants also carried out attacks in capital Mogadishu including 13 July jail break attempt that left eight dead, and car bomb that killed five and injured 20 next day near Presidential Palace.
Clan violence remained high in several states. In Jubaland, clash between security units 5 July in Luuq district, Gedo region, in following days snowballed into clan-based conflict, killing at least 30 and displacing 42,000; state officials 9 July visited area and secured initial ceasefire ahead of further mediation. Clan violence also recorded in July along Galmudug-Puntland state border and in Lower Shabelle region (South West state). Meanwhile, local militia 15 July attacked convoy carrying armaments near Abudwaq town, Galmudug state (centre), killing at least ten and seizing heavy weaponry, raising concerns about arms proliferation.
Tensions continued ahead of federal member states elections. Ahead of federal member state elections, due in Nov but surrounded by uncertainty, Jubaland parliament 2 July amended state constitution to abolish term limits and pave way for incumbent state President Madobe to stand again.
Ankara attempted to mediate between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa. Amid continued tensions over Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal, Türkiye 1 July announced it had facilitated indirect talks between FM Fiqi and his Ethiopian counterpart; officials did not reach agreement but committed to further talks on 2 Sept.
It is likely Somalia will still require foreign troops’ assistance for at least the next couple of years in order to avoid a security reversal.
If military pressure is designed to push toward the complete elimination of Shabaab, then I think we'll miss opportunities to resolve this conflict.
Al-Shabaab continues to mount resistance in parts of central Somalia and fighting al-Shabaab in its southern strongholds will probably be a tougher slog.
Things [in Somalia] are likely to get worse before they get better as both the government and al Shabaab are locked into war mode right now.
Despite President Biden’s campaign promise to end the forever wars, Somalia remains one of the most active areas in the world for U.S. counterterrorism operations.
I think the reason why [Mukhtar Robow, ex-Al-Shabab leader] was brought from house arrest to the cabinet minister is to create a counter-narrative to that of al-Shabab.
Elections in the Somali state of Puntland were a mixed bag. The vote was peaceful, but it followed an indirect model in which most have no voice. The re-elected president should reconcile with opponents while Somalia draws wider lessons from a failed experiment with democratisation.
This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, about the implications for Somalia of a possible port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland and the risks of an escalation in regional tensions.
The Somali government aims to “eliminate” Al-Shabaab by the year’s end, marking a crucial point in its sixteen-year war with the insurgency. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group explains what the EU can do to address Somalia’s challenges.
This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group experts Omar Mahmood and Sarah Harrison, to discuss where Somalia's military offensive against Al-Shabaab might be headed and the evolving role of the U.S. in the country.
Polls likely due in 2024 could unsettle Galmudug, a building block of Somalia’s federal project, increasing frictions along clan and other lines. State and federal authorities have a shared interest in ensuring a clean vote. They should cooperate toward that end.
U.S. President Joe Biden promised to end the “forever wars” launched after the 9/11 attacks. In Somalia, however, his administration has reinvigorated a flawed military-first approach to battling Islamist militants. Washington should complement those efforts with others aimed at stabilisation and political reconciliation.
The CrisisWatch Digest Somalia offers a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Somalia expert, about the Somali army’s latest offensive, together with clan militias, against Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency and challenges as the battle moves from central Somalia to Al-Shabaab’s southern strongholds.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.