Moscow sees itself as having embarked upon a broad confrontation with Western powers aimed at reshaping the global order. Its continuing war in Ukraine is thus meant both to subjugate that country and assert and cement Russia’s place in Europe and the world. Russia’s global diplomacy, meanwhile, also aims to increase Moscow’s influence and underline its great power status. Crisis Group reports on developments in the war in Ukraine, domestic processes in Russia, and Russia’s relations with its neighbours and countries around the world. In its advocacy, Crisis Group encourages policies that can lead to more sustainable peace in Ukraine, Europe, and all of the conflicts in which Russia is engaged.
Explore Crisis Group's map that shows movements of military units and fortification building below.
Putin reiterated maximalist demands for ceasefire in Ukraine as strikes into Russia persisted; courts handed down tough prison sentences to journalists as crackdown continued.
Putin reiterated conditions for holding ceasefire talks with Ukraine. President Putin 4 July said ceasefire talks with Ukraine would be “impossible” without “irreversible” agreement on latter’s demilitarisation. Hungarian PM Orbán next day held talks with Putin in capital Moscow on “ways to achieve peace”, having earlier visited President Zelenskyy in Ukrainian capital Kyiv (see Ukraine); Orbán admitted that sides’ “positions are very far apart” but promised to continue peacemaking efforts. In two letters sent 12 July to EU Council President Charles Michel but partially leaked to media, Orbán suggested EU leaders launch peace initiative without U.S. involvement and proposed dialogue with China about future peace conference.
Ukraine continued to launch drones and artillery into Russia. Notably, attack in southern Krasnodar region 5 July hit power substation and apartment building, killing one; drones 20 July struck military airfield in Rostov region, while on 27 July Ukraine targeted three airfields in Saratov, Ryazan and Murmansk regions, including oil refinery in Ryazan. Drones 22-23 July also struck ferry in southern Port Kavkaz, killing one. Meanwhile, Belgorod region 23 July began restricting access to 14 settlements and installed checkpoints in effort to protect civilians from shelling.
Crackdown on dissent continued. Notably, court 8 July jailed playwright Svetlana Petrichuk and theatre director Yevgenia Berkovich for six years for “justifying terrorism” in play. Court 19 July convicted Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in maximum penal colony for “espionage”. Kazan city court same day sentenced journalist Alsu Kurmasheva to over six years in prison for spreading disinformation about army.
In important international developments. Washington and Berlin 10 July agreed to deploy long-range missiles to Germany from 2026; Putin 28 July warned that, in response, Russia would consider itself “free from our unilateral moratorium on deploying intermediate- and shorter-range strike weapons”. Russian and Chinese bomber aircrafts 24 July staged joint patrol over north Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea, coming within about 320km of U.S. coast.
[Russia and Vietnam] were once on the same side of history, they shared the same ideology against Western capitalism and imperialism. And the legacy of shared ideology is...
Russian weapons and facilities are under solid control and there’s no evidence that Wagner or anyone else is looking to capture them.
If Russian soldiers feel their commanders are not in control, their trenches will be much easier to take for advancing Ukrainian troops.
I think they [the Kremlin] will use this [Biden's Kyiv trip] to repeat the line that this is a conflict between Russia and the West, not between Russia and Ukraine.
Russian engagement in the Sahel is very low-cost [financially]. It is distracting the West and diminishing the West’s symbolic power.
Moscow also has leverage over Türkiye in other conflict zones such as Syria and the South Caucasus, as well as a vested interest in driving a wedge between Turkey and its...
The gruelling war in Ukraine continues, with Russian forces creeping forward amid fierce fighting. To stop Russia’s immediate momentum and withstand its assault, Kyiv and its backers will need to move quickly to fix problems that have hindered the Ukrainian effort to date.
This week on Hold Your Fire, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Jerome Drevon, Ibraheem Bahiss and Olga Oliker to discuss the ISIS-claimed attack on a music venue in a Moscow suburb, the global threat ISIS and its affiliates pose and what the strike might mean for Russia and the war in Ukraine.
ISIS has claimed the lethal assault on a music venue outside the Russian capital. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Jerome Drevon explores the various implications of this attack.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk to Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, about Russia’s response to the war in Gaza, its engagement with Middle Eastern countries and prospects for regional arms control.
Crisis Group's Europe and Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker and Senior Russia analyst Oleg Ignatov discuss the aftermath of the mutiny in Russia and what the future holds for the group.
On 24 June, President Vladimir Putin faced his biggest challenge in over two decades at Russia’s helm: a mutiny by a mercenary group fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explore the implications for Putin’s rule and Russian foreign policy.
This week, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Jean-Hervé Jezequel and Richard Gowan about Wagner’s mutiny in Russia, what it means for the Ukraine war and for places in Africa where Wagner operates – particularly Mali, where the government’s ties to Wagner have informed its recent demand that UN peacekeepers leave.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts discuss the implications of the Wagner rebellion for Putin’s rule, the war in Ukraine, Russian foreign politics and the country’s power projections abroad.
In this Twitter Space, Crisis Group experts explore about the need for and purpose of a tribunal on the crime of aggression.
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