After decades of insurgency, the Philippine government is making efforts to bring stability to the Bangsamoro, a majority-Muslim area in the country's south. In 2019, Manila granted the region self-rule, an important step on the road to peace, but the new autonomous entity faces challenges in managing the transition until parliamentary elections in 2025. Clashes still break out sporadically. Meanwhile, Manila's disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea continue, amid rising U.S.-Chinese strategic competition. Through field research and advocacy, Crisis Group works to support the Bangsamoro peace process and reduce maritime tensions in the Asia Pacific.
Tensions between China and the Philippines are increasing the risk of armed conflict in the South China Sea. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024 – Spring Update, Crisis Group looks at how the EU can support regional diplomacy to mitigate maritime disputes.
Peace process remained on track in Bangsamoro region while authorities pursued anti-communist measures.
Implementation of MILF peace process continued in Bangsamoro region. Illegal gun dealer 12 July killed police informant during buy-bust operation in Sultan Kudarat town, Maguindanao del Norte. Thus far, peace process stayed on track in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) as authorities 17 July facilitated dispute settlement between two groups of Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), ie, Muslimin Yasil of NDBC-MNLF and Barah Barahim of Samideen-MNLF. Dialogue marked significant peacebuilding breakthrough in Basilan province. Senior officials of Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)’s United Bangsamoro Justice Party 20 July told local reporters that they aimed to continue Mindanao peace process and resolve conflict between Moro and non-Moro peoples on island.
Security operations against communist rebels continued in Luzon and Visayas islands. Counter-insurgency operations against communist rebels continued. Notably, soldiers 8 July apprehended two senior communist leaders in Baguio city, Luzon, under terrorism and arson charges. Military 25 July killed platoon communist leader in clash in General MacArthur municipality, Eastern Samar. Former communist rebels continued to surrender as army 14 July reported that 300 former members of Communist Party of Philippines-New People’s Army (CPP-NPA) registered in govt amnesty program from 5-12 July.
In other important developments. President Marcos 30 July welcomed U.S. Sec of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to capital Manila; U.S. officials announced $500mn in foreign military aid toward “confronting Chinese aggression” (see also South China Sea).
Time has passed since the time of Martial Law, and if you look at the demographics, it is mostly older Filipinos who remember and are opposed to BBM.
Manila’s counter-insurgency campaign has whittled the Philippine communist rebellion down to a fraction of its former strength. But it has fallen short of ending the conflict. A negotiated peace preceded by confidence-building measures is the best way forward.
In this video Miriam Coronel-Ferrer reflects on the gains made and challenges that remain for the Bangsamoro region ten years after the 2014 peace agreement.
Village elections in the southern Philippines tend to be hard-fought and violent. Crisis Group expert Georgi Engelbrecht travelled there to understand what the most recent showdowns mean for regional polls scheduled for 2025 and for the peace process in an area historically racked by conflict.
As 2025 elections draw near in the Philippines’ newly autonomous Muslim-majority region, threats to the peace process have emerged. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group outlines what the EU can do to preserve its gains.
Despite its increasing focus on external threats, the Philippine government can’t afford to take the Bangsamoro peace process for granted.
The newly autonomous area in the southern Philippines is progressing toward full self-rule, but delays in the associated peace process and renewed skirmishes are causing concern. With donor support, regional and national authorities should work to bolster the transition in advance of crucial 2025 elections.
On 9 May, residents of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, part of the southern Philippines, voted in local elections. Organised in parallel to national polls, these contests pitted former rebels against powerful political clans, with an incomplete peace process hanging in the balance.
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