Algeria faces interlocking political and socio-economic challenges three years after a long-awaited presidential transition. A largely peaceful protest movement called the Hirak – prompted by the ex-president's attempt to prolong his tenure but driven by deeper grievances – filled the streets on Fridays for much of the period 2019-2021. The Hirak has faded, but its goals are unrealised, and renewed unrest is an ever present possibility. Tensions with Morocco, including over Western Sahara, also loom, threatening to roil North Africa. Through fieldwork and engagement with senior officials, Crisis Group works to enhance Algeria’s contribution to stability and conflict resolution in a troubled neighbourhood.
Le chef de l’Etat algérien, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, a convoqué des élections législatives anticipées qui se tiendront le 12 juin. Dans ce Q&A, l’expert de Crisis Group Michael Ayari explique pourquoi ce scrutin pourrait marquer l’entrée dans une nouvelle phase d’instabilité.
President Tebboune officially announced candidacy for 7 Sept election, as opposition decried unfair voting environment amid wider crackdown; govt recalled ambassador from Paris.
President announced candidacy while opposition criticised conditions for poll. Incumbent Tebboune 11 July confirmed he will run for another term as president after months of speculation. Opposition continued to voice concerns over election process. Algerian Workers’ Party leader Louisa Hanoune, whose participation may have legitimised elections as democratic contest, 13 July withdrew from race citing unfair conditions and called on her party to boycott elections; 11 prominent opposition figures 21 July wrote open letter denouncing “authoritarian climate” surrounding upcoming elections and calling for democratic change. Although 16 candidates filed applications, election body 25 July announced only three had met requirements and would compete in poll – Tebboune, Front des Forces Socialistes national secretary Youcef Aouchiche and Abdelaali Hassani Charif of Mouvement de la société pour la paix.
Authorities arrested pro-democracy Hirak movement activists and journalists. In lead-up to vote, authorities cracked down on journalists and Hirak movement members. Police 8-15 July arrested 14 Hirak activists in Bejaia city and authorities placed eight of them in pre-trial detention, while releasing other six under judicial supervision. Associated Press 1 July reported arrest of journalists Sofiane Ghirous and Ferhat Omar in late June for broadcasting material that authorities claimed “constituted incitement and hate speech”.
Algiers recalled ambassador from France over Western Sahara policy shift. Govt 30 July announced withdrawal of ambassador to Paris following France’s announcement same day it considered Moroccan plan for autonomy over Western Sahara “only basis” to solve conflict (see Western Sahara); move soured diplomatic relations with Algiers, supporter of Sahrawi independence.
Morocco cannot follow Algeria in terms of military spending, so a military alliance with Israel is a way to balance the power with Algeria.
We're seeing a diplomatic war [over Western Sahara], where both sides [Algeria and Morocco] are resorting to anything short of open conflict.
Le 1er novembre 2020, le référendum constitutionnel sur lequel comptait le pouvoir algérien pour avancer vers des réformes a été éclipsé par l’hospitalisation du président Tebboune. Dans ce Q&A, notre analyste principal pour l’Algérie et la Tunisie, Michael Ayari, anticipe les risques de cette situation.
Algeria is now facing more challenges due to the social and economic fallout from the Covid-19 crisis and the country’s official lockdown measures. The authorities should respond to popular protests with a lighter touch and sit together with Hirak members to discuss the country’s economy.
A new wave of popular protests has jolted an already deeply unsettled Arab world. Nine years ago, uprisings across the region signalled a rejection of corrupt autocratic rule that failed to deliver jobs, basic services and reliable infrastructure. Yet regime repression and the protests’ lack of organisation, leadership and unified vision thwarted hopes of a new order. As suddenly as the uprisings erupted, as quickly they descended into violence. What followed was either brutal civil war or regime retrenchment. Tunisia stands as the sole, still fragile, exception.
A groundswell of popular unrest has ended Bouteflika’s twenty-year rule and brought Algeria to a fork in the road. The regime should embark on substantive reforms and enter dialogue with protest leaders in order to prevent the cycle of mass protests and repressive counter-measures spiralling out of control.
Protests against Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika have seized the country since he announced his candidacy for a fifth term ahead of the April election. In this Q&A, our analyst Michaël Ayari looks at the causes of an unprecedented uprising and examines future scenarios.
Political paralysis in oil-dependent Algeria has blocked much-needed economic reform. To avoid a new era of instability, the government should increase transparency and accountability within state institutions and the private sector, as well as improve opportunities for the country’s burgeoning youth.
Refugee camps in Tindouf, Algeria, have long been run by the Polisario movement, which seeks an independent state in Western Sahara, also claimed by Morocco. But a new generation of Sahrawi refugees is growing fractious as aid dwindles and diplomatic efforts fail to deliver a settlement.
As waves of protests have hit the hydrocarbon-rich Algerian south since 2013, authorities maintained a tenuous peace through handouts, repression and policing. To calm tensions, the state needs to clarify policies, communicate with local protestors and address underlying issues of governance.
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