Military authorities intensified crackdown on civil society opponents, as tensions rose over death of former junta ally, exposing rifts in ruling powers.

Authorities allegedly detained several activists, creating widespread uproar. In incident that highlighted mounting tensions between military govt and civil society, one of main civil society groups National Front for Defense of Constitution (FNDC) accused security forces of “kidnapping” three of their activists on night of 9 July – Foniké Menguè, Mamadou Billo Bah, as well as Mohamed Cissé, who was released following day; FNDC condemned arrest and claimed it was carried out “in violent manner” while activists’ lawyers said those who took them did not have warrant. In response, coalition of opposition parties and civil society groups Les Forces Vives de Guinée 13 July called for mobilisation to free activists, restore constitutional order and fundamental freedoms; lawyers’ union 16 July began two-week strike to protest arbitrary arrests. Attorney General 17 July denied junta’s involvement in disappearances and called for investigation; activists’ lawyers next day made “urgent” appeal to International Criminal Court. Arrests of opposition figures continued late month including of activist Simon Pierre Camara 27 July and politician Francis Haba next day. Security forces and demonstrators 30 July clashed in capital Conakry during anti-govt protests organised by civil society groups demanding activists’ release. Rights group Amnesty International 11 July said authorities have increased “crackdown on peaceful dissent” in recent months. 

Rumours of cracks within military emerged after former chief of staff’s death. Sudden death of former military head Gen. Sadiba Koulibaly in June continued to drive speculation of splits within army. Despite authorities maintaining Koulibaly – previously key ally of President Col. Doumbouya – had died of cardiac arrest, many details remained unclear; govt 5 July called on media to act responsibly over case and said victim’s family “could go before the courts to have the doubts removed” if they had uncertainty over cause of death. Case continued to raise speculation throughout month that govt remained worried over potential threats to Doumbouya’s position. 

In another important development. Govt 29 July presented draft constitution to be submitted to referendum before end 2024.

Unrest over finance bill morphed into wider, anti-govt protest movement, shaking President Ruto’s administration, as security forces violently repressed demonstrations. 

Protests led to firing of govt and further domestic turmoil. After public-led, spontaneous demonstrations against controversial finance bill erupted nationwide in June, movement continued into July with biweekly protests across country to air grievances against, and often demand end to, Ruto’s govt. Ruto 11 July fired all but one minister from cabinet and vowed to set up “broad-based” govt. Numbers protesting decreased in following weeks but hundreds continued to take to streets. Security forces persisted with violently repressing protests and clashed with demonstrators, while press also remained vulnerable. Notably, journalist Catherine Wanjeri wa Kariuki shot three times by rubber bullets 16 July while covering protests in Nakuru county. National Commission on Human Rights same day said at least 50 people killed since protests began – including around ten in July – with over 400 injured, some 700 arbitrarily detained and dozens abducted. Police 23 July fired tear gas to prevent scuffles between protesters and govt supporters in capital Nairobi. Ruto next day gave four posts in new cabinet to opposition Orange Democratic Movement led by former PM Odinga, while reappointing around half of previous cabinet; protest movement figures criticised new govt as co-opting opposition instead of serving population’s needs and 25 July held march to commemorate those killed in demonstrations; police again detained several people.

Kenyan-led international security force continued to deploy to Haiti. 200 Kenyan police officers 16 July arrived in Haiti following first contingent’s landing in June; Kenyan and Haitian police next day patrolled in areas of capital Port-au-Prince abandoned by police for months. Doubts remained, however, over sustainability of mission.

Al-Shabaab-related insecurity persisted. Clash between Al-Shabaab insurgents and security forces 11 July left at least five militants and four police officers dead in El Wak area, Mandera county.

Govt and Russian paramilitary forces suffered significant losses against separatists in north; crackdown on critics continued amid easing of restrictions on political party activities. 

Dozens of Russian forces reportedly killed in Kidal region, violence in centre continued. Govt with support from Russian paramilitary group Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) 22 July recaptured Inafarak town (Kidal) near Algerian border from separatist Permanent Strategic Framework (CSP) armed group coalition; troops pushed on to Tinzaouaten town but suffered heavy defeat in fighting 25-28 July; unconfirmed reports suggested dozens of Russian paramilitaries killed including local commander in perhaps deadliest incident to date for Russian forces in Mali. Meanwhile, local sources and civil society groups 5 July reported discovering mass graves containing dozens of civilian bodies near Abeibara village (Kidal) after military operations in late June. Also in north, Islamic State Sahel Province 1 July allegedly killed Ismaguil Ag Arahmat, pro-Bamako military leader of Movement for the Salvation of Azawad, in Gao town (Gao region). In Mopti region (centre), al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) fighters 1 July killed at least 21 civilians at wedding in Djiguibombo village; 21 July allegedly attacked Dembo village, killing 25 civilians. 

Repression continued as govt lifted three-month ban on political party activities. Court 8 July sentenced PM Maïga’s close aide, Boubacar Karamoko Traoré, to one-year imprisonment for “undermining the credibility of the state” for letter that criticised govt. Authorities 12 July arrested Youssouf Daba Diawara, associate of govt critic in exile Imam Mahmoud Dicko, and 15 July charged him with “opposition to legitimate authority”. Meanwhile, authorities 10 July re-authorised political party activities which had been suspended in April, same day invited parties to resume national dialogue; several party leaders 15 July said they would boycott consultations while their political partners remained in detention. 

Sahelian states reiterated break from ECOWAS. Alliance of Sahel States (AES) – bringing Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger together – 6 July held summit in Niger’s capital Niamey, to discuss joint military operations and reaffirmed decision to leave West African regional body ECOWAS (see Burkina Faso, Niger); President Col. Goïta named inaugural leader of rotating presidency of AES heads of states.

Islamic State militants remained active in northern Cabo Delgado province as Rwanda prepared offensive; election preparations continued. 

Jihadist threat persisted in Cabo Delgado despite fewer attacks. Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP) violence continued at lower level than previous months but militants remained present in province. Notably, militant activity reported in Palma district, home to multi-billion-dollar international gas project, for first time in 18 months, while ISMP 11-13 July clashed with security forces in Nangade district, leaving at least two insurgents dead. Lull in overall attacks may be due to insurgents regrouping in preparation for expected Rwandan offensive. Rwandan troops late month began deploying to Macomia district as campaign will reportedly focus on dislodging militants from strongholds including Catupa forest and coastal villages of district. Meanwhile, series of incidents highlighted troubled relationship between Mozambique military and local communities. Notably, after soldiers 8 July killed shop owner in Nanga neighbourhood of Macomia town, residents next day violently confronted army; clashes reportedly left several soldiers dead.

Regional mission concluded, bilateral deployments to fill vacuum. Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) 15 July concluded three-year deployment to Cabo Delgado; at official ceremony in provincial capital Pemba, Defence Minister Cristóvão Chume 4 July thanked mission but acknowledged insecurity continued in northern province. Bilateral deployments expected to fill vacuum after SAMIM’s departure; Rwanda in May announced additional 2,000 troops, while President Nyusi 1 July said Tanzania – which has several hundred troops in Nangade district – would continue to support fight against ISMP. Meanwhile, EU 3 July postponed decision on €20mn financial support to Rwandan troops in province amid some member states’ concerns over Kigali’s backing of Congolese rebel group M23. 

Preparations for Oct general elections continued. Electoral body 17 July removed recently formed coalition of opposition parties Coligação Aliança Democrática (CAD) from legislative and provincial ballot over alleged irregularities in registration for vote; CAD appealed in Constitutional Court while its candidate Venâncio Mondlane – formerly of main opposition RENAMO party – remained on ballot for presidential poll.

Efforts to repair diplomatic ties with Benin made progress as neighbours agreed to establish joint committee which may lead to wider agreement in August; detainees broke out of major prison housing jihadists. 

Diplomatic efforts progressed in Benin-Niger dispute. Following mediation initiative by two former Beninese presidents, including late June visit to capital Niamey, Beninese President Talon 1 July issued communiqué emphasising commitment to “swift restoration of dialogue” with Niger. Nigerien authorities next day proposed formation of joint committee to resolve differences. Interior Minister Gen. Mohamed Toumba 24-25 July visited Benin’s Cotonou city to meet Talon, as both sides reported positive meetings and progress. Talks could pave way to restoring ties, reopening border, and resuming oil exports through joint pipeline. Meanwhile, unidentified armed group 13 July attacked Niger-Benin pipeline near Muntseka village, Tahoua region (west), copying tactics employed by pro-deposed President Bazoum armed group Patriotic Liberation Front in June.

Violence in west and south west continued. In Tillabery (south west), military 4 July claimed to have killed “more than 100 terrorists” in response to June attack on Tassia village. Unconfirmed number of detainees 11 July escaped from Koutoukalé high-security prison in Tillabery, where dozens of jihadist fighters are detained; authorities 15 July said large number of escapees caught and three killed during search operations. Suspected al-Qaeda linked militants 21 July reportedly ambushed military near Tankadémi area in Tahoua; details and casualties remained unclear. 

Govt continued geopolitical realignment, including away from Western military support. Authorities withdrew permit of Canadian company GoviEx to exploit uranium deposit at Madaouela mine, Agadez region, after firm failed to meet 3 July deadline to begin extraction. Germany 6 July announced withdrawal of all 38 troops by 31 Aug, while U.S. forces next day completed troop withdrawal from base in Niamey, with its remaining forces in Agadez to leave by 15 Sept. Meanwhile, Alliance of Sahel States (AES) – bringing Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger together – 6 July held summit in Niamey to discuss joint military operations and reaffirmed decision to leave West African regional body ECOWAS; ECOWAS next day held meeting in Nigeria and designated Presidents Faye of Senegal and Gnassingbé of Togo as mediators with AES (see Burkina Faso, Mali).

Security forces continued operations against armed groups but jihadist, bandit, herder-farmer and separatist violence persisted.

Jihadist violence lingered in North East despite military efforts. Govt forces reported further gains against Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram in Borno state. Notably, air force claimed it killed several insurgents, destroyed numerous hideouts and camps in 3 July airstrikes in Mandara mountains. Meanwhile, also in Borno, insurgent explosive devices 25 July killed at least seven soldiers on Monguno-Baga road and 31 July killed at least 19 civilians at teahouse in Kawuri village, Konduga area. Court 28 July sentenced 125 suspected Boko Haram members and financiers to various jail terms.

Bandits plagued North West and North Central zones, despite security operations. Notably, in Katsina state, bandits 6 July kidnapped 26 in Runka village, Safana area. In Zamfara state, armed group 14 July killed four and abducted about 150 from Dan Isa village, Kaura Namoda area. In Sokoto state’s Sabon Birni area, bandits 27 July seized local chief and six others, demanding over $300,000 ransom, and 30 July killed two, abducted 20. 

Herder-farmer crisis remained potent as govt announced new peace efforts. Armed groups attacked several farming villages in Benue state: 9 and 14 July killed 25 people in Agatu and Gwer West areas, locals blamed herders; 20 July killed 18 and abducted two in Katsina-Ala area as authorities blamed “local militia”. President Tinubu 9 July announced creation of new federal livestock ministry and committee to recommend measures to end herder-farmer violence.

Separatist-related violence continued in South East. Army 1 July said it killed a leader of separatist group Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) armed wing Eastern Security Network (ESN), and arrested two others during raids on forest camps in Imo state. Gunmen 29-30 July killed five police in Owerri and Mbaitoli areas of Imo; Finland-based IPOB factional leader, Simon Ekpa, claimed his Biafra Defence Forces were responsible.

In another important development. Govt and security forces ramped up efforts to prevent planned 1-15 Aug nationwide protests against rising living costs, including raising minimum wage and threatening crackdown on violence; but protest leaders remained adamant and tensions rose nationwide. 

Kinshasa and Kigali agreed to ceasefire under Angolan mediation, raising hopes for greater calm in eastern DR Congo (DRC) in coming weeks; President Kagame re-elected.

Rwandan and Congolese FMs signed ceasefire over situation in eastern DRC. Congolese FM Wagner and Rwandan counterpart Nduhungirehe 30 July agreed to ceasefire between “parties to conflict in east” during high-level meeting in Angolan-capital Luanda; ceasefire due to start on 4 Aug. While EU, UN and U.S. welcomed deal, which offers chance to halt fighting, much remained unclear about agreement including position of Rwandan-backed M23 who were not signatories to accord. Earlier, international involvement in crisis saw continued polarisation; during UN Security Council 8 July meeting on situation in DRC’s North Kivu province (see DRC), some, including France and U.S., openly criticised Rwanda for its role but others, including UK, avoided direct blame; Congolese representative called for sanctions on Kigali and withdrawal of Rwandan peacekeepers from UN missions, while Rwandan representative alleged Kinshasa’s persecution of Tutsis.

Rwanda vowed to defend against threats from DRC. Without confirming or denying presence of 3,000-4,000 Rwandan soldiers on Congolese soil reported in UN report made public early July, govt spokesperson Yolande Makolo 8 July argued Rwanda “will continue to defend itself”; Makolo also accused Congolese President Tshisekedi of publicly declaring Rwanda and Kagame as enemies and seeking to support Rwandans to oppose govt in Kigali; spokesperson cited UN report’s allegations that DRC army is collaborating with anti-Rwandan forces near Rwandan border including Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda militia, saying govt “takes these threats very seriously”.

President won fourth term in presidential poll. Following 15 July general elections, final results 23 July confirmed incumbent Kagame’s re-election with 99.18% of vote; ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front coalition party, however, saw slightly reduced representation in parliament, as it won 37 of 53 legislative seats, down from 40.

Govt prepared to resume operations against Al-Shabaab as militants conducted further attacks; clan conflicts spiked, leaving dozens killed in Jubaland state. 

Preparations for counter-insurgency offensive continued. In build-up to long-promised resumption of military campaign against Al-Shabaab, President Mohamud early July held meetings with security officials and visited frontlines including Waragadhi area of Middle Shabelle region (centre). Smaller operations continued elsewhere including in Hirshabelle state (centre), as govt and allied clan militias 11 July seized Burweyn and Shaw villages east of Shabelle river in expansion of operations’ focus from river’s western bank. In Jubaland state (south) security forces 10 July captured Harbole and Miido villages between Afmadow and Kismayo towns; but Al-Shabaab continued to pose threat and 22 July attacked the two villages as well as recently recaptured town Buulo Xaaji; group, however, failed to defeat Jubaland forces, incurring heavy casualties. Militants also carried out attacks in capital Mogadishu including 13 July jail break attempt that left eight dead, and car bomb that killed five and injured 20 next day near Presidential Palace.

Clan violence remained high in several states. In Jubaland, clash between security units 5 July in Luuq district, Gedo region, in following days snowballed into clan-based conflict, killing at least 30 and displacing 42,000; state officials 9 July visited area and secured initial ceasefire ahead of further mediation. Clan violence also recorded in July along Galmudug-Puntland state border and in Lower Shabelle region (South West state). Meanwhile, local militia 15 July attacked convoy carrying armaments near Abudwaq town, Galmudug state (centre), killing at least ten and seizing heavy weaponry, raising concerns about arms proliferation.

Tensions continued ahead of federal member states elections. Ahead of federal member state elections, due in Nov but surrounded by uncertainty, Jubaland parliament 2 July amended state constitution to abolish term limits and pave way for incumbent state President Madobe to stand again.

Ankara attempted to mediate between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa. Amid continued tensions over Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal, Türkiye 1 July announced it had facilitated indirect talks between FM Fiqi and his Ethiopian counterpart; officials did not reach agreement but committed to further talks on 2 Sept. 

Authorities affirmed November schedule for party and presidential elections, while ties with Somalia remained strained.

Electoral preparations continued despite political tensions. Amid speculation govt was seeking to delay concurrent party and presidential elections, election commission 6 July and cabinet 10 July reiterated polls would be held as scheduled on 13 Nov; electoral body also cautioned against “interfering” with its work or “spreading false information” about election process. 

Tensions with Mogadishu remained high. Govt 16 July expressed “grave concern” over arms proliferation in Somalia and “Mogadishu govt’s apparent inability to secure its arms”, called for reinstatement of UN arms embargo after militia previous day seized heavy weaponry near Abudwaq town, Galmudug state (see Somalia). Hargeisa 23 July also reaffirmed “significance” of its deal with Ethiopia for diplomatic recognition in return for access to port, asserting its “sovereign right” to engage in relations and agreements with other nations.

President Ramaphosa opened parliament and outlined agenda for govt of national unity; several officials working to investigate corruption killed. 

New govt promised to deliver growth and national unity. President Ramaphosa 18 July opened parliament and presented govt of national unity – comprised of African National Congress, centre-right Democratic Alliance and eight other parties; top priorities include driving inclusive economic growth, tackling inequality and developing capable state. Opposition immediately criticised address, with uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP) spokesperson Nhlamulo Ndhlele labelling it “lies, lies, lies, continuous lies”. Earlier, MKP 3 July dropped its court challenge against results of May elections.

Gunmen targeted lawyer and officials tackling corruption. Two gunmen 18 July tried to assassinate lawyer in Durban city working for govt on high-profile tax inquiry; police minister 19 July promised swift action against “attack on our democracy”. Earlier in Johannesburg, gunmen 11 July killed local govt investigator working on corruption in municipality. 

In other important developments. U.S. 23 July announced sanctions against two South Africa-based individuals for enabling activities of Islamic State (ISIS) and its leaders in eastern, central and southern Africa; Washington accused them of transferring funds and serving as critical links between ISIS branches in DR Congo, Mozambique and Somalia, and ISIS cells in South Africa. Security forces 25 July raided suspected military training camp run by private security company near White River town, Mpumalanga province, and arrested 95 Libyan nationals for allegedly misrepresenting their visa status.